Novel Coronavirus – China

[summer blizzard]

While we are right to be concerned the fact that this is so far mostly contained in China who have gone to great lengths to quarantine (and the low number of cases in the developed world means its easy to quarantine) means that i'm not as pessimistic (especially since the velocity of infection in China is actually falling suggesting measures to quarantine the cities are working).

If it does get serious outside of China then stronger measures may need to be taken in the western world (travel bans for at least the short term on people heading to Asian nations). 

I'm still more impressed with efforts than i am fearful. 

[fujita5]

24 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

While we are right to be concerned the fact that this is so far mostly contained in China who have gone to great lengths to quarantine (and the low number of cases in the developed world means its easy to quarantine) means that i'm not as pessimistic (especially since the velocity of infection in China is actually falling suggesting measures to quarantine the cities are working).

If it does get serious outside of China then stronger measures may need to be taken in the western world (travel bans for at least the short term on people heading to Asian nations). 

I'm still more impressed with efforts than i am fearful. 

Yes the low number of cases is still slightly baffling outside of China.  We've been fortunate enough so far to know who has been in contact with carriers so we can quarantine them, the problems would start when unsuspecting individuals pick it up and travel on the tube network, visit supermarkets, go to fast food places... only time will tell.

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, fujita5 said:

Yes the low number of cases is still slightly baffling outside of China.  We've been fortunate enough so far to know who has been in contact with carriers so we can quarantine them, the problems would start when unsuspecting individuals pick it up and travel on the tube network, visit supermarkets, go to fast food places... only time will tell.

Not baffling when you consider that the virus was spotted early and China basically quarantined entire states. If you trap it in one location and pick up the stragglers escaping you can get a grip on it. Right now the hope is obviously that the infection will die in Wuhan before they drop the quarantine. 

[cheese]

The mortality rate is at 1% now compared to early reports of 2-3%. The number of cases has risen significantly but the number of deaths remains pretty consistent which can only be a good thing.

Funnily enough I’ve heard nobody talking about this in real life. I suppose after similar hysteria over SARS, swine flu and Ebola, people have largely tuned out. One day there will probably be a serious pandemic that won’t be taken seriously thanks to media scaremongering in the past.

Edited February 11, 2020 by cheese

[Gray-Wolf]

22 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Not baffling when you consider that the virus was spotted early and China basically quarantined entire states. If you trap it in one location and pick up the stragglers escaping you can get a grip on it. Right now the hope is obviously that the infection will die in Wuhan before they drop the quarantine. 

?

The first case was identified on December the 1st 2019

In the meantime they had two communist Party conferences and one 'families gathering' to set some guiness book of records attempt in the Epicentre???

All those folk were inside a known contamination area when H2H had been confirmed yet still went home to their homes across China....then we had CNY...

with 24 days the new 'up to' incubation period we are not even seeing 'patient Zero's' from CNY travel presenting with symptoms never mind all those the infected as they travelled!

Our man from the Singapore conference went straight to the French Ski lodge and so 'limited' the spread he could have caused if he had gone home to the UK from Singapore.

How many have travelled from the far east since Jan 25th (number out of thin air) and have been busy spreading in their communities since? It will be friday before their '24' days' are up.....

All those travel hubs , all those co workers, those classmates, those family members, shop workers etc,etc

Let's at least wait until we are 24 days on from when travel restrictions/lockdowns were first introduced before we declare ourselves 'clear' of 2019-nCoV and , in that time, be aware it may be already in among us so frequent hand washing/sanitizer gel use if you travel....

Once confirmed that it is out there and airborne then masks may be appropriate?

Edited February 11, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Dreckly]

https://www.cell.com/cell-host-microbe/fulltext/S1931-3128(20)30072-X

Genome composition

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

 

I'm still more impressed with efforts than i am fearful. 

Exactly.

The Scout guy is recovered, although still in hosp. As Dr Hilary said on Lorraine this morn, influenza accounts for 000s of deaths every year in UK, and 000s in every other developed country. Most people will just think they have a heavy cold or does of flu, so wont even bother to do anything else other than stay at home.

Plus, if the authorities are seriously worried (or is it just a public show of face?) in Brighton, at least, they can contact every person that visited that surgery for an appointment in last week or so, unless, of course, Brighton do things differently and dont keep patients' addresses, phone numbers.

[swebby]

44 minutes ago, cheese said:

The mortality rate is at 1% now compared to early reports of 2-3%. The number of cases has risen significantly but the number of deaths remains pretty consistent which can only be a good thing.

Funnily enough I’ve heard nobody talking about this in real life. I suppose after similar hysteria over SARS, swine flu and Ebola, people have largely tuned out. One day there will probably be a serious pandemic that won’t be taken seriously thanks to media scaremongering in the past.

This is a real tricky one to be honest. You are absolutely correct in that we need to be very wary  of the boy who cried wolf situation, but the interest in the cases you list is/was reasonably justified.

SARS was a case of a lucky fall of the dice, in that its pathology made it containable, if it's transmission was more along the lines of the closely related 2019-nCoV, we'd be in the poo!

All the various forms of filovirus that result in haemorrhagic illness in humans (e.g ebola) have started off in remote areas and are again not very infectious. Thankfully that is likely to remain the case,  filoviruses are large so may not easily adapt to airborne transmission but that simply means that this would be unlikely rather than impossible. The media interest is therefore to be expected, it has a shocking mortality rate and the symptoms make for gruesome copy, if it became readily transmissible then that is the stuff of nightmares.

Swine/Avian Flu - this is probably the best example of undue concern and sensationalism but that is because it is also a case of history at play - i.e. Spanish Flu. The media are still waiting for the next high mortality Flu pandemic, they have the stats for the last one so it easy to write up something alarmist. This is nothing new, i remember back in the 70's concerns about a repeat of Spanish flu, way before Ebola, Aids or SARS were even a consideration. Thing is, evolution means the media is some day going to get one. 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm still thinking many are showing signs of not really getting the threat this poses?

We have yesterdays stats from Hubei showing a 20% mortality rate there (before , and indeed 'if ever' we get true numbers from there?) yet folk are talking as though we have 'dodged the bullet' even though the bullet is still in flight and aimed straight at us?

Come off your bike and gash your leg in rusty iron whilst we're at peak infection rates (rendering hospitals useless) and how will you fare?

Rely upon any type of meds and you can rely upon the supply being even worse impacted than it is now....

Then there's the 'headless chickens' reacting to supply shortages over peak infection....think you'll relocate 'till it blows over? where are you getting your fuel/food?

Though your dance with 2019-nCoV may be nothing special the impacts on all you rely on around you may not be so benign..... this IS your life you are dealing with here and I'm sure you'd prefer it not to be cut short!

Until March I reckon we keep a weather eye on developments and react accordingly, I think it a folly to talk as though this is passing when it is only just arriving here!

Edited February 11, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[cheese]

Not being funny GW but there’s a reason you have a reputation both here and on TWO for being a miserable doom merchant. Maybe you should take a break from the news and try relaxing for a bit.

Edited February 11, 2020 by cheese

[Gray-Wolf]

Just me and W.H.O. with concerns then cheese?

By the way how do you see you life developing? does it have an end?

[cheese]

WHO have to be concerned about any developing epidemic, it’s quite literally their job - much like they eventually classified swine flu as a global pandemic, yet here we are, more than a decade later. The world still turns and the vast majority remain completely unaffected, as has been the case with every other recent endemic/pandemic that ultimately petered out, or turned out to be no worse than the flu for normal healthy adults.

Edited February 11, 2020 by BornFromTheVoid
Keep the personal remarks out of it

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

Hmmmmm

[Gray-Wolf]

7 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

Hmmmmm

How the heck have they faced exposure?

[DAVID SNOW]

2 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

How the heck have they faced exposure?

Prison guards go home you know.

Visitors back and forth  etc....

Its probably just Fletch with the sniffles trying it on, ha.

[Gray-Wolf]

It is when we see clusters like the French Chalet or this;

Coronavirus : Quarantine ordered as nearly third of cases in Tianjin

WWW.STRAITSTIMES.COM

---

East Asia News -BEIJING (NYTIMES) - Nearly a third of the confirmed coronavirus cases in Tianjin, a city of more than 15 million about 112km south-east of Beijing, have been linked to one department

that we must be mindful of how fast it WILL spread if we do not pin down ALL cases?

It IS a spreader and folk then go about their business for weeks before they present with symptoms.

If that leaves you unconcerned then you are welcome to it and via folk such as you the spread will be wider still as you go about your unconcerned lives in an unconcerned way..... but what of the folk in your 'spread zone', what if your lack of concern takes lives?

Will you also be 'unconcerned' about that?

[Gray-Wolf]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Prison guards go home you know.

Visitors back and forth  etc....

Its probably just Fletch with the sniffles trying it on, ha.

We'll have to wait for the 'All Clear' but it is this week that the second tier of those infected before China 'locked down' will be presenting?

It is odd that some folk reject the notion of quarantine to the point of Parliament having to make power to ensure quarantine it is observed?

But then the 'Diamond Princess' might give us a clue why folk would seek to shun being in a closed community of folk suspected of being infected?

[Bristawl Si]

20 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

It is when we see clusters like the French Chalet or this;

Coronavirus : Quarantine ordered as nearly third of cases in Tianjin

WWW.STRAITSTIMES.COM

---

East Asia News -BEIJING (NYTIMES) - Nearly a third of the confirmed coronavirus cases in Tianjin, a city of more than 15 million about 112km south-east of Beijing, have been linked to one department

that we must be mindful of how fast it WILL spread if we do not pin down ALL cases?

It IS a spreader and folk then go about their business for weeks before they present with symptoms.

If that leaves you unconcerned then you are welcome to it and via folk such as you the spread will be wider still as you go about your unconcerned lives in an unconcerned way..... but what of the folk in your 'spread zone', what if your lack of concern takes lives?

Will you also be 'unconcerned' about that?

It is NOT "unconcerned";

it is the fact that the vast majority of normally healthy people in the UK, with no other underlying, longer term medical conditions, esp those that affect their breathing, will not even know if they have this strain of coronavirus. For the vast majority it will be, and feel, like a really heavy cold or a bout of flu - that is what the experts are saying. And,

Normal advice from government, NHS, GP surgeries over last 10 years or so has been to treat those symptoms with pain relievers, honey, cough medicines, etc. So, most wouldnt even go to docs to get a diagnosis.

And, as a society, we are so used to seeing family, friends, work colleagues get heavy colds or, worse still, influenza, but in the main, they get better a week or two later, we become unable to process if another coronavirus is really worth worrying about. Like you i've experienced a loved one dying from influenza, which induced pneumonia, to kill my father (April 18), but he was 91, weak from chest infections, lived in a carehome. And influenza is a killer every Winter, but it is normally worst for the old, and those with underlying medical conditions. I view this strain as being no worse, but am under no illusion it may spread far and wide. 

Your posts are becoming increasingly like "I told you so", as if you almost want your gloomy predictions to come true.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The issue as I see it is that this virus presents as a cold in its initial phase. If there was to be a major outbreak, how the hell do we distinguish between the cold and this more sinister virus?

Is everyone with a cold going to be put into quarantine? It's just not feasible. So yes, I think if this gets a foothold here we will just have to ride it out as it does its thing.

[Gray-Wolf]

As we sadly learned about the death of the dr who tried to give an alert on the virus and its potency we now get ;

At least 500 Wuhan medical staff infected with coronavirus

WWW.SCMP.COM

---

Medical sources in the city confirm rate of infection, but say they have been told not to release the full picture to the public.

Unlike the 'flu' there is no yearly jab to give up some protection from the virus and so one slip up leaves Care Workers open to infection themselves....

How will the NHS cope with staff levels already so low?

[Bristawl Si]

58 minutes ago, cheese said:

WHO have to be concerned about any developing epidemic, it’s quite literally their job - much like they eventually classified swine flu as a global pandemic, yet here we are, more than a decade later. The world still turns and the vast majority remain completely unaffected, as has been the case with every other recent endemic/pandemic that ultimately petered out, or turned out to be no worse than the flu for normal healthy adults.

There’s a difference between caution and needles panic. You unfortunately fall into the latter, as you do with everything else. And unfortunately people like you will contribute to everyone ignoring a serious future pandemic due to crying wolf once too many times.

WHO definition of pandemic means it is global. But that does NOT mean every country that reports cases, will necessarily see 000s of cases.

Pandemic seems an alarmist, doomsday word, but in WHO terms it means global. Individual countries that have a decent healthcare infrastructure, act decisively, take it seriously should be able to limit its spread.

[Cheshire Freeze]

One a side note, why are people so filthy? I was at work yesterday and two youths walked past, one of them coughing their guts up and proceeding to 'gob' it out everywhere...in strong winds. 

I can't tell you how angry stuff like that makes me, zero respect for anyone else around them. Just vile but oh so common a sight.

[Gray-Wolf]

13 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

 

Your posts are becoming increasingly like "I told you so", as if you almost want your gloomy predictions to come true.

Check you are not projecting here B.B.?

If you run through the posts I have made they are from (what I feel are) reputable sources and bring facts/info on the Virus

I have some level of frustration at folk who would 'lash out' rather than take note of the news as it evolves?

It was the same with my Climate concerns but now those are 'mainstream' and so nobody is 'lashing out' any more...... and we have seen our 4th '100 yr flood in a decade so things are moving on in a direction I cautioned they would should we not act?

Again , here i am outlining what those long years of concern whilst caring for Luke brought me but ,again, they are cast aside as unwanted distractions

I do believe the virus is already here and I do believe we will find it difficult to 'lock down' in the way Wuhan (et al) have?

From midnight last night Wuhan began locking down ALL residential blocks.....could you see the UK act in such a way to try and suffocate the virus from new hosts? Nor can I so its spread will go unchallenged once we see cases running at over 100 per day

And there will be no "Told You So" posts as my concern has been to promote 'Awareness & Prevention' (as it ever was back in the noughties with H5N1/SARS/H1N1?).

Once its in our communities we just have to try our best to avoid it (esp. over peak infection) and care for those less able?

Edited February 11, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Thundery wintry showers]

5 hours ago, Azazel said:

The problem is, many business have practices such as "only 3 sick days/events in a rolling year" - any more and they can sack you.

I get on average probably at least 3 illnesses a year (colds etc) where I don't feel particularly great, but soldier on at work because all it takes is an above-average sickness year for me to get fired if I decide to stay at home.

Believe me, I would rather stay at home when I'm sick, but many many businesses, while claiming they look after their employees best interests, will sack you off if you take too much sick time.

A lot of workers working for agencies and recruiters don't even get sick pay - so they quite literally can't afford to take the time off if they have bills and responsibilities. 

In my experience, it's nothing to do with "looking weak" - more to do with "I'm in debt, have bills to pay and can't afford to lose my job."

Just recapping on these posts, I agree that many workplaces are overly stringent on sick leave/pay, but it has also been my experience that even in workplaces that genuinely look after their employees, many people still come into work while clearly ill and contagious, and then claim that they're "fine", that "oh well, it's not a big deal, you just have to get on with it".  I think it's tied in with the stiff upper lip "keep calm and carry on" attitude.  I also find that the people who are unhygienic, e.g. coughing and spluttering on everyone, often have this kind of attitude, believing, "If you catch it, you catch it, that's life, and you're just going to have to suck it up."  So I think it's a cultural problem which spans the whole of society, from businesses (and I do agree with the points that have been made regarding businesses) to the general working public.  In the case of the general public a sense of "not wanting to look weak" does seem to kick in if their hand isn't forced by employers.

Edited February 11, 2020 by Thundery wintry showers

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Check you are not projecting here B.B.?

If you run through the posts I have made they are from (what I feel are) reputable sources and bring facts/info on the Virus

I have some level of frustration at folk who would 'lash out' rather than take note of the news as it evolves?

It was the same with my Climate concerns but now those are 'mainstream' and so nobody is 'lashing out' any more...... and we have seen our 4th '100 yr flood in a decade so things are moving on in a direction I cautioned they would should we not act?

Again , here i am outlining what those long years of concern whilst caring for Luke brought me but ,again, they are cast aside as unwanted distractions

I do believe the virus is already here and I do believe we will find it difficult to 'lock down' in the way Wuhan (et al) have?

From midnight last night Wuhan began locking down ALL residential blocks.....could you see the UK act in such a way to try and suffocate the virus from new hosts? Nor can I so its spread will go unchallenged once we see cases running at over 100 per day

And there will be no "Told You So" posts as my concern has been to promote 'Awareness & Prevention' (as it ever was back in the noughties with H5N1/SARS/H1N1?).

Once its in our communities we just have to try our best to avoid it (esp. over peak infection) and care for those less able?

Ok, here's a future scenario:

This strain of CV, becomes the norm, like common influenza, that we all know today.

Scientists cannot stamp it out (like influenza)

There is no cure (like flu)

Every Autumn a jab is given to vunerable people, like the elderly, children, pregnant women, etc. Others go to their pharmicist to pay for a jab (voluntary)

So, in that case would people really view it as any different to influenza? Would people avoid going out? 

Nope. People would get used to 'it' being in society, and just like today, when they get a heavy cold or flu, will try to minimise its severity, pain, etc. They'll hope no one spreads it in the office or workplace, will hope people stay at home or self-isolate - great new term that one! And hope people practice good hygiene and common sense, before most get better.