Novel Coronavirus – China

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Paul Faulkner said:

nCoV-2019 is highly infectious via droplets and in aerosol form, you don't even have to be in the same room as the infected person to contract the virus as it can remain in airflow.

Coughing, sneezing, talking, breathing are all ways in which the virus has been aerosolized.

 

But don’t the droplets slowly fall towards the ground . Looks like even my normal evasive supermarket manoeuvres  which I’ve been employing for years to avoid the flu aren’t going to be sufficient .

[swebby]

59 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

What worries me about that is that, like seasonal flu, it might mutate whilst lying dormant?

The rate at which it evolves should be proportional to number of hosts it burns through, and independent of time, as it is the actual replication cycle inside a host cell when the genetic alterations take place. If it is seasonal, then low season when it is only infecting a small percentage, genetic drift will presumably be less than in a full blown epidemic. 

Influenza is different in that it is present in multiple species - humans, birds, pigs etc so when it is not peak season for human infection, it can still be swapping RNA segments in other hosts and with influenza strains that are specific to those hosts.

Edited March 2, 2020 by swebby

[Snipper]

21 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Panic buying has now taken hold in US states affected by the viral outbreak along with Italy and Germany, I fully expect the UK to follow suit within 10 days - we panic buy when there's a bit of snow for god sake.

Americans can be very scared about doing anything. Thinking back to 9/11.  Would not go anywhere afterwards. We even had a cruise cancelled as our American friends would not leave their country. 

[Summer Sun]

At least 48 new cases and 2 deaths in France since last night.

[Bristawl Si]

Interesting development in this outbreak for the UK re the age issue.

A school pupil in Devon has tested positive.

[Guest Delete Me]

Estimated 15,000 people currently in London after arriving from northern Italy which is very concerning.

Two patients have yet to be linked to a source and the track and trace methods being used are not returning back any concrete results.

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

But don’t the droplets slowly fall towards the ground . Looks like even my normal evasive supermarket manoeuvres  which I’ve been employing for years to avoid the flu aren’t going to be sufficient .

Again depends on the where you are, places like ships, schools, offices that all use cassette style air con with air handling units will be breeding grounds

[Gael_Force]

6 minutes ago, Donegal said:

I've decided not to go to France next week. I've since found out my sister is pregnant so can't take the risk potentially spreading it when I return home. I've booked with Ryanair. You can't cancel only change flight date. Is there any travel insurance I could get that could reimburse some of it or is it just a loss no matter what? I've tried searching but don't see anything specific. 

You could wait it out and see if Ryanair cancel flight due to seats not sold or other restrictions. A lot can happen in a week with this fast moving situation.

[nick sussex]

12 minutes ago, Donegal said:

I've decided not to go to France next week. My sister is pregnant so can't take the risk potentially spreading it when I return home. I've booked with Ryanair. You can't cancel only change flight date. Is there any travel insurance I could get that could reimburse some of it or is it just a loss no matter what? I've tried searching but don't see anything specific. 

If the FCO had issued advice not to travel to a certain place then you’re fine but there’s no restrictions to France .  I completely understand you not wanting to risk travel with your sister being pregnant . 

Edited March 2, 2020 by nick sussex

[Guest Delete Me]

Ryanair have cancelled flights already, wait it out for a few more days

[DAVID SNOW]

If Howard Hughes was still alive he would love this thread.

As for me I'll be back on the London underground again tomorrow, don't have a choice atm.

Keep clean and carry on.

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Estimated 15,000 people currently in London after arriving from northern Italy which is very concerning.

Two patients have yet to be linked to a source and the track and trace methods being used are not returning back any concrete results.

Again depends on the where you are, places like ships, schools, offices that all use cassette style air con with air handling units will be breeding grounds

Paul do you mind explaining a bit more about the cassette style air con . I’m in a bit of a dilemma myself . Supposed to be going over to the UK towards the end of March  with friends from here . One of them is over 70 and suffers from asthma , getting the ferry over from Roscoff to Cornwall then onto Sussex .

Although I’m hardly a beacon of good health given my lifestyle I’m particularly concerned about my friend .

Seriously thinking about delaying this trip .

[Bristawl Si]

One of first people to catch this virus, a Brit expat in Wuhan, said he caught it in November, weeks before the Chinese officially announced the virus to the world.

The Brit also said that cases were covered up for weeks by the Chinese authorities. 

So it's been around since, at least, mid-November.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Bristle boy

[fujita5]

10 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Interesting development in this outbreak for the UK re the age issue.

A school pupil in Devon has tested positive.

I should imagine children are excellent spreaders of this virus as they're unlikely to present with symptoms any different from the usual school bugs, or will be asymptomatic...

[Spikecollie]

19 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Americans can be very scared about doing anything. Thinking back to 9/11.  Would not go anywhere afterwards. We even had a cruise cancelled as our American friends would not leave their country. 

It is notable that approximately 5% of the US population travel abroad every year. A large number of people but a very small percentage. It is not an island but in parts it is highly insular.

[feb1991blizzard]

59 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm always wary of this. If I've touched a public object I keep my hands away from absolutely anything like my phone etc. If I have to touch it, I'll use a weak bleach solution to lightly dab over it when i get home.

I use a flash or dettol wipe to wipe phone, i plan slightly different, i touch door handles and doors and things on the least obvious part, still use my phone for texting but will either make sure it doesnt touch my ear if i make a call or if i cant hear i will just put it on loudspeaker, then when i get home i either do a full shower or if not i use hand wipes to wipe all parts of my body that could possibly be infected and change out of all clothes that could have been infected, my one floor on this is smoking, i do handwipe my right hand then get a fag out with my right, use my left to light the lighter anf put the fag packet back in pocket.

[Spikecollie]

21 minutes ago, Donegal said:

I've decided not to go to France next week. I've since found out my sister is pregnant so can't take the risk potentially spreading it when I return home. I've booked with Ryanair. You can't cancel only change flight date. Is there any travel insurance I could get that could reimburse some of it or is it just a loss no matter what? I've tried searching but don't see anything specific. 

You won't get anything back, most likely, although you could call Ryanair and explain - they did it for me once when I booked a wrong date. Retrospective travel insurance is a non starter. Sad for you but you can come again when all is good.

[Gael_Force]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

One of first people to catch this virus, a Brit expat in Wuhan, said he caught it in November, weeks before the Chinese officially announced the virus to the world.

The Brit also said that cases were covered up for weeks by the Chinese authorities. 

So it's been around since, at least, mid-November.

Yes, recent paper dated the genetic sequencing back to mid October and nothing to do with the wet market. How do they work that out, fascinating science and way beyond my comprehension.

[swebby]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

One of first people to catch this virus, a Brit expat in Wuhan, said he caught it in November, weeks before the Chinese officially announced the virus to the world.

The Brit also said that cases were covered up for weeks by the Chinese authorities. 

So it's been around since, at least, mid-November.

Yep, seen a few reports suggesting it could have been in the wild since November, another reason not to jump to what appears to be the obvious conclusion about it's geographical origin (Wuhan market). That will only be solved when/if they find the species that is the natural reservoir. It's gonna be bats, it's always bats!

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

It is notable that approximately 5% of the US population travel abroad every year. A large number of people but a very small percentage. It is not an island but in parts it is highly insular.

To be fair there is no need for Americans to travel anywhere else, you have such variation of culture, class and climate within that country, to be fair though i am not the best person to ask as i have only ever been outside this country for 12 hours.

[Guest Delete Me]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Paul do you mind explaining a bit more about the cassette style air con . I’m in a bit of a dilemma myself . Supposed to be going over to the UK towards the end of March  with friends from here . One of them is over 70 and suffers from asthma , getting the ferry over from Roscoff to Cornwall then onto Sussex .

Although I’m hardly a beacon of good health given my lifestyle I’m particularly concerned about my friend .

Seriously thinking about delaying this trip .

Cassette aircon is ceiling mounted cassette like units, connected via ducts in an air handling unit scenario, in the school i work at we have different air handling units serving departments via ducting providing both fresh air and recycled air.

In a scenario like this whereby a virus is aerosolized it can easily stay in the airflow and travel through rooms.

 

[Guest Delete Me]

12 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

It is notable that approximately 5% of the US population travel abroad every year. A large number of people but a very small percentage. It is not an island but in parts it is highly insular.

Watch the Youtube videos where they ask American's to name countries and capital cities outside of the US

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Paul Faulkner said:

Cassette aircon is ceiling mounted cassette like units, connected via ducts in an air handling unit scenario, in the school i work at we have different air handling units serving departments via ducting providing both fresh air and recycled air.

In a scenario like this whereby a virus is aerosolized it can easily stay in the airflow and travel through rooms.

 

Is it the same in supermarkets and pubs?   and what about trains and buses?

[Summer Sun]

Official data from France

61 new cases and 1 new death

Total to 191 cases + 3 deaths

[Katrine Basso]

-

Edited March 2, 2020 by Katrine Basso
Wrong conversation thread

[Ryukai]

26 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Weirdly enough, I just saw this yesterday. Absolutely staggering. I was questioning if it was parody. Sadly not. They can't even point to their own country on the map. 

 

I haven't laughed so hard since the video of foreigners attempting to say Squirrel.