Novel Coronavirus – China

[Azazel]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

At a hunch, when the markets close, when is that? 

If its four o clock soon we'll know. 

It's been updated

 

 

 

[abruzzi spur]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

At a hunch, when the markets close, when is that? 

If its four o clock soon we'll know. 

A bit late again lol. 

UK Markets close at 4:30, so the numbers were issued well in advance of then.

[Snowy L]

46 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

The current CFR rate King County, VA is 28.125%. For the USA as a whole it is 6.79%. 

I wonder what the demographics are like in KC? Older people? 

 A lot of them are in a nursing home. I really suggest watching the CMO answer questions from MPs. He is very confident that the mortality rate will be below 1%. For people under 60 it will be far lower than 1%. Two things have really skewed the USA figures

. As mentioned there has been an unfortunate outbreak in a nursing home, where the residents are older, have comorbidities or both.

. The CDC is refusing to test many people so naturally the more severe cases will be more likely to be picked up, while milder cases are not tested and therefore don't enter the statistics as confirmed case.

[Spikecollie]

1 hour ago, snefnug said:

And this. they have a web based tracking system.  Very interesting.   I don’t normally have post time during day but temporary self isolation as have aches, shivering, fluctuating temps so in bed waiting to see if it is a) aggravated hay fever, b) a cold, c) another bug, d) flu, e) ....
 

ncov – CSSE

SYSTEMS.JHU.EDU

 

 

Get well soon, Snefnug 

[swebby]

1 hour ago, Spikecollie said:

Donald Trump has declared live on television that, as a result of a hunch, he didn’t believe the World Health Organization’s assessment of the global death rate from coronavirus of 3.4%.

“I think the 3.4% is really a false number,” he told Sean Hannity, one of his favorite conservative Fox News hosts, in a phone interview broadcast live.

“Now, this is just my hunch,” Trump began, before continuing that “based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild – they’ll get better very rapidly, they don’t even see a doctor, they don’t even call a doctor.”

He went on: “You never hear about those people, so you can’t put them down in the category of the overall population, in terms of this corona flu, and/or virus. So you just can’t do that.” (Source: Guardian live)

The bold is mine. What leadership in a time of crisis, eh...

Had a listen to the interview from a link on the Guardian web site, would recommend others do likewise.

His use of language is incredibly frustrating, as in "false" number, but the gist of what he was trying to convey was reasonably sound, and i think he was simply trying to be reassuring. It was not much different to my arguments when i was discussing with @DAVID SNOW about raw figures will "appear" higher than Prof  Witty's estimate of a 1% top end to the CFR.  I also think he may by now be briefed that the US figures could look like a car crash in the next few weeks, so is getting his side of the story in first?

Unfortunately, what some of his core support then pick from that interview could prove really unhelpful.  "False" number may be interpreted by some as the green light to regard WHO/CDC guidance as "fake news".  We had the story yesterday of the eejit, that was meant to have self isolated, going to a private function. If the US libertarian brigade decide that self-isolation is an infringement of their personal freedom, then,,,,,, oh dear.

Edited March 5, 2020 by swebby

[nick sussex]

It’s all well and good scientists saying the fatality rate is low but 15% of people infected are still likely to need medical attention .

And how much long term damage could the virus do to people if they’ve needed medical  attention in the first place .

 

[Snipper]

12 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

 A lot of them are in a nursing home. I really suggest watching the CMO answer questions from MPs. He is very confident that the mortality rate will be below 1%. For people under 60 it will be far lower than 1%. Two things have really skewed the USA figures

. As mentioned there has been an unfortunate outbreak in a nursing home, where the residents are older, have comorbidities or both.

. The CDC is refusing to test many people so naturally the more severe cases will be more likely to be picked up, while milder cases are not tested and therefore don't enter the statistics as confirmed case.

Expect the Yanks are too busy writing the script for the film “America Saved the World” to worry about the detail. 

[Azazel]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s all well and good scientists saying the fatality rate is low but 15% of people infected are still likely to need medical attention .

And how much long term damage could the virus do to people if they’ve needed medical  attention in the first place .

 

For a slight bit of reassurance, that’s 15 percent of verified cases - the hope is there are loads and loads of cases going undiagnosed which are extremely mild.

I agree though 15 percent of any number is still scary.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Reading out loud, the experiences of AZAZEL, CREWE COLD and DAMI (amongst others), certainly made my Wife sit up and take notice.

Colette has experienced the exact same symptoms, in the past couple of Weeks. One night she woke up drenched in sweat and a little later developed a pain above the nose. She now has developed a cough and intermittent headaches.

As I stated this Morning, as she works in a Residential Care Home, she frequently picks up "bugs".

A few Weeks ago I experienced a dizzy spell, when the Lounge spun around. My Wife was extremely worried and thought I was going to experience another Stroke. I had a Brain Haemorrhage/Stroke, back in September 2015.

Some Days later, I developed a vague feeling of Nausea with left sided, mid abdomen pain. My Wife, who is pretty hot on all things medical (work experience coming into play), suggested I stop taking my Movicol powders. I take these to combat chronic constipation. My Stroke seemed to have caused an inefficient peristalsis movement, which greatly hinders regular bowel movements (Sorry, TMI there).

Having been on Movicol since I came out of Hospital in February 2016, Colette was worried that I'd caused some damage to my intestine. So, I stopped taking Movicol for a few Days but this left sided mid abdomen pain continued.  I felt nauseous and bloated but never felt that sick and didn't experience any vomiting, or diarrhoea.

I went to my GP, who suggested I may well be developing Diverticulitis. The stomach pain and nausea have since stopped but in the past Week, I've developed Cough and Cold symptoms. February has always been a bad Month for Colds, for myself and my Wife.

The cough has been productive but the phlegm has been very difficult to shift at times.

One thing I'd like to ask those of you that have experienced these myriad of symptoms. How has your appetite been?

I always like to differentiate between a Cold and Influenza, going on how my appetite is reacting.

I can only remember having Flu, twice. One bad dose started on Millennium Eve. I was with my Ex, at the time. She said I was drenched in sweat, delirious and complaining about the racket from Millennium Fireworks. The other times, I'm convinced, have just been a Cold.

To my mind, when you have Flu, you can hardly raise your head from your pillow and the thought of food, was right off the Menu!! My Wife has also developed Cold symptoms now but our appetites are totally unaffected.

When I worked for a Credit Bookmakers in S.E.London and would frequently answer the Phone, at the back of the Office. The Company I worked for, also owned 80+ Betting Shops. These Phone lines were to the Personnel Manager and Manageress, whose job it was to staff the Betting Shops.

When I picked up the Phone, many times I would hear the oft quoted "Mantra". "I wont be in Today, I've got the Flu but I'll be in Tomorrow!!"

Very doubtful in my book, probably just a Cold and if it was Flu, the individual would highly unlikely be fit enough to return to work, the following Day.

Regards,

Tom 

[Snipper]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s all well and good scientists saying the fatality rate is low but 15% of people infected are still likely to need medical attention .

And how much long term damage could the virus do to people if they’ve needed medical  attention in the first place .

 

One thing when it is a academic and another when it is personal.

[Summer Sun]

 

[nick sussex]

The French municipal elections on the 15th and 22nd March are still going ahead apparently .

Not sure it’s a great idea especially in more built up areas to have a load of people turning up at polling stations .

Turnout tends to be quite high in France compared to the UKs version and the role of mayor here is much more important than in the UK, they have a huge amount of power here and every commune has its own mayor .

Edited March 5, 2020 by nick sussex

[swebby]

3 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

.....One thing I'd like to ask those of you that have experienced these myriad of symptoms. How has your appetite been?

I always like to differentiate between a Cold and Influenza, going on how my appetite is reacting.

I can only remember having Flu, twice. One bad dose started on Millennium Eve. I was with my Ex, at the time. She said I was drenched in sweat, delirious and complaining about the racket from Millennium Fireworks. The other times, I'm convinced, have just been a Cold.

To my mind, when you have Flu, you can hardly raise your head from your pillow and the thought of food, was right off the Menu!! My Wife has also developed Cold symptoms now but our appetites are totally unaffected.

....

Regards,

Tom 

Very good point, the bug i picked up in January, appetite was not affected. 

Last bout of flu, which was 3/4 years ago, did not eat for about ten days! Plenty of fluids, many containing sugar, but solids during that time was half a bowl of instant noodles (was unable to eat a full bowl) and a couple of bags of fruit gums.

[Azazel]

7 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Reading out loud, the experiences of AZAZEL, CREWE COLD and DAMI (amongst others), certainly made my Wife sit up and take notice.

Colette has experienced the exact same symptoms, in the past couple of Weeks. One night she woke up drenched in sweat and a little later developed a pain above the nose. She now has developed a cough and intermittent headaches.

As I stated this Morning, as she works in a Residential Care Home, she frequently picks up "bugs".

A few Weeks ago I experienced a dizzy spell, when the Lounge spun around. My Wife was extremely worried and thought I was going to experience another Stroke. I had a Brain Haemorrhage/Stroke, back in September 2015.

Some Days later, I developed a vague feeling of Nausea with left sided, mid abdomen pain. My Wife, who is pretty hot on all things medical (work experience coming into play), suggested I stop taking my Movicol powders. I take these to combat chronic constipation. My Stroke seemed to have caused an inefficient peristalsis movement, which greatly hinders regular bowel movements (Sorry, TMI there).

Having been on Movicol since I came out of Hospital in February 2016, Colette was worried that I'd caused some damage to my intestine. So, I stopped taking Movicol for a few Days but this left sided mid abdomen pain continued.  I felt nauseous and bloated but never felt that sick and didn't experience any vomiting, or diarrhoea.

I went to my GP, who suggested I may well be developing Diverticulitis. The stomach pain and nausea have since stopped but in the past Week, I've developed Cough and Cold symptoms. February has always been a bad Month for Colds, for myself and my Wife.

The cough has been productive but the phlegm has been very difficult to shift at times.

One thing I'd like to ask those of you that have experienced these myriad of symptoms. How has your appetite been?

I always like to differentiate between a Cold and Influenza, going on how my appetite is reacting.

I can only remember having Flu, twice. One bad dose started on Millennium Eve. I was with my Ex, at the time. She said I was drenched in sweat, delirious and complaining about the racket from Millennium Fireworks. The other times, I'm convinced, have just been a Cold.

To my mind, when you have Flu, you can hardly raise your head from your pillow and the thought of food, was right off the Menu!! My Wife has also developed Cold symptoms now but our appetites are totally unaffected.

When I worked for a Credit Bookmakers in S.E.London and would frequently answer the Phone, at the back of the Office. The Company I worked for, also owned 80+ Betting Shops. These Phone lines were to the Personnel Manager and Manageress, whose job it was to staff the Betting Shops.

When I picked up the Phone, many times I would hear the oft quoted "Mantra". "I wont be in Today, I've got the Flu but I'll be in Tomorrow!!"

Very doubtful in my book, probably just a Cold and if it was Flu, the individual would highly unlikely be fit enough to return to work, the following Day.

Regards,

Tom 

I completely lost my appetite which is unheard of for me. I usually have a cold or two a year on average and even during the heavy ones I can smash down a curry or big plate of food.

I barely ate anything for the duration and after 5 days when I felt finally well enough to drive again I remember only eating a packet of crisps that day and finding it a struggle.

[snefnug]

I can’t recall who the cases are who are being tested.  Is it anyone admitted to hospital with flu/pneumonia or what.  Given that we have al” been told to self isolate, will the numbers being tested drop back?

[Summer Sun]

11 new cases of coronavirus in Westchester County with 2 new cases in New York City.

[Arctic Hare]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The French municipal elections on the 15th and 22nd March are still going ahead apparently .

Not sure it’s a great idea especially in more built up areas to have a load of people turning up at polling stations .

Turnout tends to be quite high in France compared to the UKs version and the role of mayor here is much more important than in the UK, they have a huge amount of power here and every commune has its own mayor .

My first thought there would be to announce a short delay to give time to set up an all-postal election. Plenty of places have done that, I think including the UK at one point some years back. There may be some constitutional reason that's not allowed, though.

On another note... anecdotally, the messages about hand-washing seem to be getting through to at least some extent. I used a supermarket gents today and had to wait for one of the two basins while both guys in front washed their hands thoroughly, the approved way.

[swebby]

3 minutes ago, snefnug said:

I can’t recall who the cases are who are being tested.  Is it anyone admitted to hospital with flu/pneumonia or what.  Given that we have al” been told to self isolate, will the numbers being tested drop back?

Any suspected Covid-19 case, i.e will have links to a confirmed case, or has returned from a high risk area abroad and is feeling unwell. Plus random tests.

Think random testing was anyone presenting with flu like symptoms, or possibly respiratory infections, but this was only at certain designated surgeries/hospitals (presumably a statistically relevant number of sites). Think the random tests have only picked up two cases, the ones at king's college hospital the other day.

[Gray-Wolf]

It is refreshing to see the amount of 'Sobriety' over the subject in here today?

It's almost like we're nearly all on the 'same page' even?

I too imagine a CFR , when all's done and dusted, of the 1% or less for the UK

BUT:

.... and I'm not 'predicting' anything here....merely shootin' the breeze..... being mindful of 'The Worst' and confident of 'The Best'? (maybe that's where I go wrong with folk and just 'why' they misconstrue me?.....the above 'mindset' is always 'My way of thinking' about everything'?...... Hmmm?)

What we are now realising is already 'history' and so 'set in stone'? 

The 'Future'? not so much.....

'ALL' the current 'values' are based on this 'historic' overview and that will alter as we move forward....

Think of the worst, expect the best.... the virus may suddenly 'Shift' in its behaviours/abilities over time to either 'augment CFR or Lessen it?

Folks reactions to any 'Peak Infection' (and the changes it will temporarily drive?) period is just soooo hard to predict?

'Headless Chickens' or 'Dunkirk Spirit' if things get 'Hairy'?

Will folk be taking it serious 'NOW' and so taking the precautions they would if they 'knew' it was in the next street or are they waiting for it to be in the next street?

If the latter then we have not stopped the spread of Covid-19 but left it unfettered in front of its biggest potential 'growth surge' in those infected' prior to the 'Peak infection'?

Anyhoo's, I'll park it there...

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

Italy have reported 769 new cases and 41 new deaths

Total to 3,858 with 148 deaths

[snefnug]

4 minutes ago, swebby said:

Any suspected Covid-19 case, i.e will have links to a confirmed case, or has returned from a high risk area abroad and is feeling unwell. Plus random tests.

Think random testing was anyone presenting with flu like symptoms, or possibly respiratory infections, but this was only at certain designated surgeries/hospitals (presumably a statistically relevant number of sites). Think the random tests have only picked up two cases, the ones at king's college hospital the other day.

So self isolating for either covid19 or flu will skew figures?  If the majority of cases are mild, then they won’t get reported and what does get reported/tested will be less mild cases?  Also, given the UK numbers, no deaths?  Not being suspicious but % wise doesn’t seem to fit the profile. I’m probably totally wrong on that though.

[alexisj9]

24 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Reading out loud, the experiences of AZAZEL, CREWE COLD and DAMI (amongst others), certainly made my Wife sit up and take notice.

Colette has experienced the exact same symptoms, in the past couple of Weeks. One night she woke up drenched in sweat and a little later developed a pain above the nose. She now has developed a cough and intermittent headaches.

As I stated this Morning, as she works in a Residential Care Home, she frequently picks up "bugs".

A few Weeks ago I experienced a dizzy spell, when the Lounge spun around. My Wife was extremely worried and thought I was going to experience another Stroke. I had a Brain Haemorrhage/Stroke, back in September 2015.

Some Days later, I developed a vague feeling of Nausea with left sided, mid abdomen pain. My Wife, who is pretty hot on all things medical (work experience coming into play), suggested I stop taking my Movicol powders. I take these to combat chronic constipation. My Stroke seemed to have caused an inefficient peristalsis movement, which greatly hinders regular bowel movements (Sorry, TMI there).

Having been on Movicol since I came out of Hospital in February 2016, Colette was worried that I'd caused some damage to my intestine. So, I stopped taking Movicol for a few Days but this left sided mid abdomen pain continued.  I felt nauseous and bloated but never felt that sick and didn't experience any vomiting, or diarrhoea.

I went to my GP, who suggested I may well be developing Diverticulitis. The stomach pain and nausea have since stopped but in the past Week, I've developed Cough and Cold symptoms. February has always been a bad Month for Colds, for myself and my Wife.

The cough has been productive but the phlegm has been very difficult to shift at times.

One thing I'd like to ask those of you that have experienced these myriad of symptoms. How has your appetite been?

I always like to differentiate between a Cold and Influenza, going on how my appetite is reacting.

I can only remember having Flu, twice. One bad dose started on Millennium Eve. I was with my Ex, at the time. She said I was drenched in sweat, delirious and complaining about the racket from Millennium Fireworks. The other times, I'm convinced, have just been a Cold.

To my mind, when you have Flu, you can hardly raise your head from your pillow and the thought of food, was right off the Menu!! My Wife has also developed Cold symptoms now but our appetites are totally unaffected.

When I worked for a Credit Bookmakers in S.E.London and would frequently answer the Phone, at the back of the Office. The Company I worked for, also owned 80+ Betting Shops. These Phone lines were to the Personnel Manager and Manageress, whose job it was to staff the Betting Shops.

When I picked up the Phone, many times I would hear the oft quoted "Mantra". "I wont be in Today, I've got the Flu but I'll be in Tomorrow!!"

Very doubtful in my book, probably just a Cold and if it was Flu, the individual would highly unlikely be fit enough to return to work, the following Day.

Regards,

Tom 

I've had that same stomach thing last week, seems to be gone now, lasted a while week though, again no vomit or or wet stools, I also suffer from constipation through my ms. I haven't got a chough but I do have a small rattle at times when I breath, very occasionally. I do hope it isn't coronavirus as I was in hospital yesterday day surgery, no fever of anything wrong in the pre opp tests. 

[swebby]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Italy have reported 769 new cases and 41 new deaths

Total to 3,858 with 148 deaths

That case number has to be way off.

This is not just wishful thinking on my part, but the number of the UK cases (and the RoW) that are being linked to Italy. The odds that they all have been in contact with the 3,858 in Italy must be astonishingly small?

[Summer Sun]

Breaking: The Royal Berkshire NHS Trust has said one patient with underlying health conditions has died after testing positive for coronavirus. 

Edited March 5, 2020 by Summer Sun