Novel Coronavirus – China

[fujita5]

5 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Any new virus with 95% similarity to SARS would press many governmental buttons to take drastic early measures.... no vaccine and not knowing efficacy of existing anti-virals... plus their early cases may all have been very severe as it was only detected through hospitalisation of pneumonia patients. 

Did you see the case studies from Japan and elsewhere that show quite a few first tests are negative: only prolonged and worsening symptoms lead to more testing to get the positive result. On that basis, there's probably more cases worldwide than we think but it's just taken to be a cold or flu and life goes on.

Which in itself is worrying as the number of infected will grow slowly and steadily until your first few 'bad ones' appear, by which time you're buggered.  This is likely how it got so widespread in China.  There were probably thousands or tens of thousands of people infected before anyone noticed that there were a growing number of people in hospitals with viral pneumonia symptoms.

Edited February 5, 2020 by fujita5

[swebby]

Just released on the BCC

NHS orders 'coronavirus pods' for every hospital

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The move is meant to protect other patients from infection if people ignore advice to self-isolate.

This is actually rather reassuring, that is preparing for the basis that this thing will be out in the wild sooner or later rather than having to react belatedly to the inevitable.

Also on the beeb

The coronavirus will finally get a proper name

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Scientists have told the BBC that after grappling behind closed doors they are close to an announcement.

 

Suggestions anyone?

The Wuhan Willies?

Or Wuhan Wobbles?

Or maybe, the Hubei-Jeebies?

Yes, yes, gallows humour..............

[fujita5]

Kung Flu?

[swebby]

1 minute ago, fujita5 said:

Kung Flu?

That's the winner!

[Snipper]

43 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

 

Now imagine worst case scenario - it gets into London and spreads via the tube network, work places etc.  London has a population of 8.9 million - let's say that 20% of the population catch the virus over a 3-month period and 25% of those need hospital treatment.  That's 8,900,000 x 20% x 25%.  You're looking at 1,178,000 infected and 445,000 people needing to be hospitalised.

Scale that up across the whole UK (66.4m) and you're looking at 13,280,000 people with the virus and 3,320,000 people who need to be treated and quarantined in hospital - and that's with only 20% of the population getting the virus.

Those numbers are truly frightening but it's based on 1 in 4 people becoming very ill.  The likelihood is that many cases have gone unnoticed in China due to mild symptoms or entirely asymptomatic cases so the number needing hospital treatment could be much lower.

But even with only 5% of the UK population catching it and 5% of those needing hospitalising, we'd still need to be able to treat and isolate something like 166,000 people.  Do we have the capacity in our health system even for that volume?

I wonder if the Chinese are of harder stock than the soft west? Can’t be able to eat all that rubbish most of the time if not. Just throwing it in as a thought.

Bearing in mind so many turn up at A&E here for what many might class as minor or incidental complaints I am concerned. The older generation are less likely to do so. Sorry is that another WOKE issue? Everything seems to be nowadays. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmm....

Tencent may have accidentally leaked real dat... | Taiwan News

WWW.TAIWANNEWS.COM.TW

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Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus

This would be closer to the kind of numbers I'd expect with all the 'measures' being taken to control it (including today's radio 'public information' adverts reassuring us that the NHS has 'got this one folks!'?)

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Kung Flu?

Or even, given some of the more 'imaginative' conspiracies some folks are coming up with...One Flu Over The Cuckoo's Nest?

[swebby]

27 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Hmmm....

Tencent may have accidentally leaked real dat... | Taiwan News

WWW.TAIWANNEWS.COM.TW

---

Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus

This would be closer to the kind of numbers I'd expect with all the 'measures' being taken to control it (including today's radio 'public information' adverts reassuring us that the NHS has 'got this one folks!'?)

Interesting story but......

1) The figures seem to be garbled, i.e. confirmed cases twice as high as suspected cases?

2) The story speculates that Tencent has two sets of figures, official and real. Why Tencent (an internet/technology company) should be privy to "real figures" with the employees (it geeks) publishing the figures on the app  also being privy to them seems somewhat implausible to me?

My money would be on a case of "fat finger syndrome" with the people coding the data for the app?

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by swebby

[Spikecollie]

3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

The Pollution from China  has been a concern for me for decades with 'Global Dimming/regional dimming' has its place in Climate Change by masking impacts/altering ground conditions and the 'Asian Plume' was such a beastie!

As such the folk living under such dreadful conditions (over the period China was rapidly industrialising) WILL have had impacts on their lungs (as it does for us here in the UK if we live in 'Pollution Hotspots'?) leading to greater impacts from respiratory infections like Colds/Flu so you might expect such an ailment to show greater impact in those communities ravaged by urban pollution?

The pollution levels in China are horrendous. When I was in Hangzhou I had almost immediate swollen, sore eyes but fortunately I had my "infected eye drops" with me. When I flew back to Hong Kong from there the aircraft decended through a yellow "fuggy" haze of pollution. No, this cannot do people's respiratory systems any good at all and the chronic, low level inflammation that many must suffer from makes pneumonia from a lower respiratory tract infection more likely.

[Spikecollie]

2 hours ago, swebby said:

Just released on the BCC

NHS orders 'coronavirus pods' for every hospital

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The move is meant to protect other patients from infection if people ignore advice to self-isolate.

This is actually rather reassuring, that is preparing for the basis that this thing will be out in the wild sooner or later rather than having to react belatedly to the inevitable.

Also on the beeb

The coronavirus will finally get a proper name

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Scientists have told the BBC that after grappling behind closed doors they are close to an announcement.

 

Suggestions anyone?

The Wuhan Willies?

Or Wuhan Wobbles?

Or maybe, the Hubei-Jeebies?

Yes, yes, gallows humour..............

They're not allowed to use place names or names of people - but if they could, I'd quite like "The China Syndrome" - remember that movie from many years ago.

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Snipper]

13 hours ago, Spikecollie said:

The pollution levels in China are horrendous. When I was in Hangzhou I had almost immediate swollen, sore eyes but fortunately I had my "infected eye drops" with me. When I flew back to Hong Kong from there the aircraft decended through a yellow "fuggy" haze of pollution. No, this cannot do people's respiratory systems any good at all and the chronic, low level inflammation that many must suffer from makes pneumonia from a lower respiratory tract infection more likely.

Be interesting to know if pollution levels have fallen significantly in China because of the shutdown. Seems reasonable that they should. If yes it is obviously the way to go. Wipe out half the population of the world to save the planet. 

[Dreckly]

Latest economic and stock market news

News - TeleTrader.com

WWW.TELETRADER.COM

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Latest news from several international news sources, with options to filter by region, markets, etc.

Latest cases via The GISAID Initiative, also known as a Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data, ..

GISAID - Global cases BetaCoV

WWW.GISAID.ORG

 

[Dreckly]

1 hour ago, Snipper said:

Be interesting to know if pollution levels have fallen significantly in China because of the shutdown. Seems reasonable that they should. If yes it is obviously the way to go. Wipe out half the population of the world to save the planet. 

Air Pollution in World: Real-time Air Quality Index Visual Map

AQICN.ORG

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How polluted is the air today? Check out the real-time air pollution map, for more than 100 countries.

 

[fujita5]

Third coronavirus case confirmed in the UK

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The patient has been taken to a specialist NHS centre, England's chief medical officer says.

 

 

[jonboy]

16 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Third coronavirus case confirmed in the UK

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The patient has been taken to a specialist NHS centre, England's chief medical officer says.

 

 

It has also been stated that they did not contract the virus in the UK

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, jonboy said:

It has also been stated that they did not contract the virus in the UK

Yes but you can bet your bottom dollar the have passed it on in the UK.

[fujita5]

2 hours ago, jonboy said:

It has also been stated that they did not contract the virus in the UK

And it has now been stated they didn't contract it in China but 'somewhere else in Asia'.....

[Gael_Force]

A 34 year old doctor, one of the initial whistleblowers, dies after weeks in ICU. 

Quote

Li Wenliang, a "whistleblower" who publicly reported the epidemic in Wuhan, died on February 6 at the age of 34, leaving behind his wife and 5-year-old child.

Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist at Wuhan Central Hospital, was known as the "whistleblower" for the epidemic because he first issued a protective alert to the outside world on December 30, 2019.

In early January 2020, the vast majority of Chinese are still at work and immersed in preparations and expectations for the upcoming Spring Festival. But what many people don't know is that a new type of coronavirus is quietly raging in Wuhan, a big city in China.

On December 30, 2019, he sent a message to the group of students about the epidemic situation in the South China Seafood Market.

武汉肺炎：最早公开疫情“吹哨人”李文亮去世

WWW.BBC.COM

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武汉中心医院的李文亮医生最早向外界发出疫情防控预警，但被指造谣而遭警方训诫，他与另外7名被当局警告的人士，一同被外界称为“造谣8君子”。

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by Gael_Force

[swebby]

36 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

And it has now been stated they didn't contract it in China but 'somewhere else in Asia'.....

The NHS will be advised later today of the list of additional Asian countries, which having been visited by a patient would require that patient to then be tested for 2019-nCoV.  Presumably these will be Japan, Singapore, Thailand, S. Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam. Possibility of also the Philippines, India, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Russia being on the list. If they come up with any others, that will raise an eyebrow as to where patient #3 has travelled from.

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, swebby said:

The NHS will be advised later today of the list of additional Asian countries, which having been visited by a patient would require that patient to then be tested for 2019-nCoV.  Presumably these will be Japan, Singapore, Thailand, S. Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam. Possibility of also the Philippines, India, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Russia being on the list. If they come up with any others, that will raise an eyebrow as to where patient #3 has travelled from.

Yes, it's good to see the NHS and advisers are on top of this. Around 8 weeks into the outbreak and UK still only has 3 cases; Europe's numbers also very low.

[swebby]

10 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

A 34 year old doctor, one of the initial whistleblowers, dies after weeks in ICU. 

武汉肺炎：最早公开疫情“吹哨人”李文亮去世

WWW.BBC.COM

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武汉中心医院的李文亮医生最早向外界发出疫情防控预警，但被指造谣而遭警方训诫，他与另外7名被当局警告的人士，一同被外界称为“造谣8君子”。

 

Very sad to hear, worrying also that he was not that old.

[nick sussex]

16 minutes ago, swebby said:

Very sad to hear, worrying also that he was not that old.

That seems very strange . So after being threatened by the local police to keep quiet he dies in ICU .

And just 34 years old . When he wouldn’t be in that high risk group . 

[jonboy]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but you can bet your bottom dollar the have passed it on in the UK.

It is 9 days since the 2 York cases first came to light. You would expect the next few days will be crucial here if they have passed on the virus. Lets hope no further cases are identified.

[swebby]

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That seems very strange . So after being threatened by the local police to keep quiet he dies in ICU .

And just 34 years old . When he wouldn’t be in that high risk group . 

The Guardian now reporting that Chinese state run media are saying that Dr Wenliang is actually alive but in a highly critical condition.

“Li Wenliang is currently in critical condition,” the Global Times claimed in the early hours of Friday, local time.

“His heart reportedly stopped beating at around 21:30. He was then given treatment with ECMO (extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation),” it added.

Edit - I will also add that the BBC's report on this story states that local authorities later apologised for they way he was initially sanctioned at the start of January.

Edited February 6, 2020 by swebby