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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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3 hours ago, tight isobar said:

lol. ..it's obviously  not got to that point  as yet. ...and despite  previous  carrot dangling. ...

the dart has to hit the board  if you keep throwing  it.

and with given  atmospheric  nudges. ..

we'll  wait  and see aye! !!!

I’ve been spending the last 2 hours trying to figure out your post and missed the 18z...

pub run looks hugely (as expected) over amplified.  I’m with Nick Sussex, we’re not seeing what we need right now. 

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9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

yep  expect  some notable  Hlb. .

on the 18z. ..

I have edited your wording as mlb isn't good enough?

height's pushing up towards Greenland should signify Hlb


although this is an upgrade,we still need to count it down,hopefully an upgrade count down.

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Well fingers crossed the amplification in the upper flow early-mid next week comes off to allow a proper cold northerly that can bring a flake of snow even to the south. Because it looks, for now, that it may take second warming later in Feb to perhaps finally knock out the wretched strong SPV that has ruined the winter for cold and snow lovers thus far.

18z GFS certainly putting on a good show.

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12 minutes ago, Dennis said:

who wants this......



I mean its cold, sunny with a chance of snow showers around the coasts and as the high topples over us some very frosty nights, yes please!

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nope - W'ly

So, I was correct to say not north or east!  I was hoping you were going to say north easterly, but this ain't a dream lol!

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The EC46 should be put out of its misery ! 

I expect the wind direction is the same crud it’s dished out all winter ! 

But we've had crud all winter.

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25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This evolution is safer than the earlier GFS12 hrs run .

More margin for error so less chance of phasing with the upstream troughing between day 7 and 8 .

We need the ridge to build cleanly northwards which happens here . As for past day ten , not worth worrying about .

The main thing is to overcome the earlier hurdles !

Well like you say the gfs 18z runs the hurdles no problem leaving it's counterparts(ens)behind,well i hope so?


the ens i hope will catch up nearer the timeline

back to the 18z gfs and a reload looks on the cards and whilst we have that hp cell dumbelling around to our west there is every possibility of a reload.


Edited by Allseasons-si
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