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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm liking the 12z ensembles, very much plenty of eye candy... Here's some I've just picked from the warehouse with the forklift. ? Can guarantee Winter will begin just as its meant to be ending... Let's refrain from ramping though... ?

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But maybe the 12Zs aren't quite as encouraging as the 06Zs, Matt:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But who knows...we could even end-up with a NW-SE tilted PFJ?

And, unfortunately, there's no sign of any <-10C T850s creeping into the Southeast...:cray:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

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Maybe relevant, but our local ITV weather guy (they still use the Meto) just commented that the longer range output (Glosea maybe?) is showing Atlantic mobility for way into the foreseeable. Temps forecast to hit 13/14c locally by end of week.

Edited by Bristle boy
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7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Maybe relevant, but our local ITV weather guy (they still use the Meto) just commented that the longer range output (Glosea maybe?) is showing Atlantic mobility for way into the foreseeable. Temps forecast to hit 13/14c locally by end of week.

I suspect any forecaster worth their salt uses the term ‘foreseeable’ as being pretty much that, about 5/6 days.  The Met O have discussed a similar mobile pattern out to that point (into and over the weekend) in their own forecasts today.  
 

On NW ‘foreseeable’ tends to mean, well as far as the model run goes and maybe a bit more for extra measure ?

 

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19 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Maybe relevant, but our local ITV weather guy (they still use the Meto) just commented that the longer range output (Glosea maybe?) is showing Atlantic mobility for way into the foreseeable. Temps forecast to hit 13/14c locally by end of week.

The ECM 12z may change there forecast ?

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Another joke rubbish run from ECMWF.

It keeps seeing the same pattern the last 15 days for 216-240 hours and of course is never verifying.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, topo said:

Another joke rubbish run from ECMWF.

It keeps seeing the same pattern the last 15 days for 216-240 hours and of course is never verifying.

 

 

lol. ..it's obviously  not got to that point  as yet. ...and despite  previous  carrot dangling. ...

the dart has to hit the board  if you keep throwing  it.

and with given  atmospheric  nudges. ..

we'll  wait  and see aye! !!!

Edited by tight isobar
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5 minutes ago, topo said:

Another joke rubbish run from ECMWF.

It keeps seeing the same pattern the last 15 days for 216-240 hours and of course is never verifying.

 

 

No chart at 216 plus hours will verify as it is, no matter the set up. The only changing trend I see is that the jet stream in the Atlantic is hinted to be more amplified in the medium to longer term which may means a northerly might occur. Not at the stage where excitement should be building as its too far out but at least it makes things a tad more interesting.

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13 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

No chart at 216 plus hours will verify as it is, no matter the set up. The only changing trend I see is that the jet stream in the Atlantic is hinted to be more amplified in the medium to longer term which may means a northerly might occur. Not at the stage where excitement should be building as its too far out but at least it makes things a tad more interesting.

Who knows where the MLB will place it's self but there's no reason it won't for once

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Doubt this would come off, but the 12Z JMA throws up a small Low over South-Western UK at 192 hours within the cool North-Westerly flow.

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850 hPa temperatures are marginal, though perhaps a possibility for the precipitation to be a bit wintry over Wales and the Midlands. Best chances clearly on high ground. (Just for a spot of fun) 

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You need much more sharpness to the upstream troughing days 7 and 8 , instead we’ve got the bloated troublemaker .

You need to have words with that upstream troughing. ? It’s time it learnt some manners.  Is being inconsiderate to those mid Atlantic ridges not allowing them enough time to stretch themselves far enough North. May be you could stretch the Eastern Canadian trough as far as possible getting it vertically aligned against the Atlantic ridge, so it sends loads of warm air up to Greenland... ?

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The Gfs and indeed Ecm have been quite consistent in the idea of having high pressure to the west with a cold northerly flow for a time towards day 10 the Gem also shows this. 

Gfs.. ?

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Gfs quite quickly moves that high over the country cutting off a colder northerly flow.

Gem.. ?

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Gem slower in moving that high over the uk so ofcourse colder northerly lasts longer. 

Ecm.. 

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Ecm sort of between the Gem and Gfs output. 

Edited by jordan smith
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Still too much ensemble noise for any excitement yet. Nice little cluster of colder runs appearing, but until that tips to wrk beyond 50% then best not get too hyped. A couple of days probably needed before we have a good idea.

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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Still too much ensemble noise for any excitement yet. Nice little cluster of colder runs appearing, but until that tips to wrk beyond 50% then best not get too hyped. A couple of days probably needed before we have a good idea.

Apropos of nothing, around 20% of eps members bring a countrywide snow event at some point in the 9/15 day period ....

That means 80%  dont btw ...... (Note I said ‘countrywide’ )

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Apropos of nothing, around 20% of eps members bring a countrywide snow event at some point in the 9/15 day period ....

That means 80%  dont btw ...... (Note I said ‘countrywide’ )

That is pretty decent for this winter, i haven't seen many if any suites so far that have a 20% countrywide tonking strike rate.

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Last chance saloon for this winter, if this  small probability, currently, of something much colder arriving doesn't come off then that's it for this winter until spring arrives of course... 

 

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4 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am aware of that Jason,lets see what happens when we get nearer the time,lets hope that it builds northwest like the anomalies show?

eps/gefs at day ten.

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  Models have been quite interesting today how ever all these called chart showing up I will not buy into it just yet looking at the extended from Met office Exeter is not buying into anything really cold in February just yet ☺️

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37 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Last chance saloon for this winter, if this  small probability, currently, of something much colder arriving doesn't come off then that's it for this winter until spring arrives of course... 

 

Is that just your opinion or do you have charts to back that up ?

 

 

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40 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Last chance saloon for this winter, if this  small probability, currently, of something much colder arriving doesn't come off then that's it for this winter until spring arrives of course... 

 

You obviously have never heard of the  weather events, end of February 2018!

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19 minutes ago, bigdog1 said:

Is that just your opinion or do you have charts to back that up ?

 

 

Well considering we are entering the last month of winter and  if we don’t get this colder spell and the pattern falls flat again ,we haven’t got much time left for cold weather to develop,it doesn’t just happen overnight to get cold weather into the U.K. 

That doesn’t mean we won’t go cold as we head into spring which I also mentioned.Anyway let’s see what happens over the next 24 hours..

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Back to the models some of ya please. A few of the recent posts are tending to be more about general Winter chat rather than the charts. Tar! 

We will keep our dungeon unlocked in case we do need to through any naughty members inside. ?

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