Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

Recommended Posts

Funny how the 18z generally produces the BOOM charts. Again days 9-10, so can't be relied on. But the 12z EPS mean and recent operational runs of various models hint at amplification of an Atlantic ridge in this timeframe. Just so far we haven't got as amplified as the 18z GFS.

GFSOPEU18_234_1.thumb.png.98e81438a5b5a57cb3bbd209b054fd93.pngGFSOPEU18_234_2.thumb.png.42d91b2750e9d07497d9754716ad3994.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pub run special again from the gfs

this at day ten

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.53f49c199309fb4e6b5c887bace8a9de.pnggfsnh-1-240.thumb.png.aa0447ab94983de96e9b8f3c0235e954.png

are we goin to have a cold lock -in or be kicked out early in the morning with sober heads

we find out in the morning:drunk-emoji:

what ever it is,some good eye candy showing now,are the models finally latching on to the warming showing in FL.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Potential reload from the north from 288,the op and control have been showing this for the last few days.

gfsnh-0-288.thumb.png.12f875ba59f732771fd8c8a27b535ab1.png

at least we have the lower height's into Europe on this run.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

are we goin to have a cold lock -in or be kicked out early in the morning with sober heads

we find out in the morning:drunk-emoji:

The way our luck has gone so far this wretched winter, you'd have to go for Monday morning blues after the high spirits before closing time the night before from the model output. But, you never know, our luck might change. Boy do we deserve it! Even if it's a two day northerly toppler.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Blizzards for NE Scotland.

image.thumb.png.8c360ddedea1eb44876b3f42c63265af.pngimage.thumb.png.5973e3b985a14e8cb9936a0c29477179.png

Not bad at all! Chillier 850 hPa temperatures than I expected with a wide area of -10*C 850 hPa temperatures flooding South through the UK. Would give that North-Westerly/Northerly an 8.6/10.

For a 10, some deeper, lower, 500mb heights from the Scandinavian trough to back a touch more West through the UK with the Atlantic High also backing just that little more Westwards. And while it might be a bit of a stretch, for that High to become even more amplified terminating the Vortex over Greenland. But imagine it will change again on the next run, though it has been a few runs the GFS has produced some kind of Atlantic High. At one point, one of these North-Westerly to Northerly flows has got to happen. No more hiding behind the scary depths of FI please, Northerly! There’s no need to be afraid of the UK 💁‍♂️

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The way our luck has gone so far this wretched winter, you'd have to go for Monday morning blues after the high spirits before closing time the night before from the model output. But, you never know, our luck might change. Boy do we deserve it! Even if it's a two day northerly toppler.

Yes, the 18z GFS is on the tease again in FI. At T276 it even takes the jet to Morocco 

I’m sure it will look exactly the same come the morning...........

Still, it proves enjoyable viewing.

4BA36BBF-3C49-4B1E-A3C4-4624969E0FA2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The way our luck has gone so far this wretched winter, you'd have to go for Monday morning blues after the high spirits before closing time the night before from the model output. But, you never know, our luck might change. Boy do we deserve it! Even if it's a two day northerly toppler.

I think the majority on here would take that if it produces snowfall and this Tue morning might deliver a flake or two and maybe some surprise somewhere in the UK

after that then we look to see if we gain more amplitude around day ten in the Atlantic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mm 18z you tease. Joking aside i think it's time us oldies had some luck. Now my prediction is the high will end up been more west and we shall have a direct northery eventually turning Easterly has the trough drops south. Snow showers for NE Scotland first moving down the east coast and eventually making the way far inland when the flow turns Easterly eventually hitting southern England with a couple of humber/wash and Thames streamers. Turning Nov/Dec 2010 in to a distant memory. We can hope can't we night all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

who no's we could well get a SSW event. the GFS is hinting at something colder and now the CFS is showing even colder stuff we can only dream

 

cfs-0-786.png

cfs-2-786.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty good agreement on a disturbance moving through tonight bringing some sleet and snow perhaps to parts of northern Ireland later this evening then to southern Scotland perhaps northern England overnight but there is uncertainty in the placement atm. 

Gem.. 👇

overview_20200127_00_027.thumb.jpg.47ae4f0ce9445fba4c500f0af9413658.jpg

GFS.. 👇

00_27_preciptype.thumb.png.ca3e368244643dea8a71d33a55d37e03.png

Hirlam.. 👇

00_22_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.6be1da22978f9cd2850c547692180bb5.png

00_27_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.9f86b8704424c479feca352ae2956ec0.png

Icon.. 👇

00_30_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.52cfd0d6840b46c3563c3f2bdff30cb9.png

Elsewhere wintry showers some perhaps quite heavy. Also more organised showery rain from the disturbance likely pushing across the south and southeast during this evening and the early part of the night windy with this. 

Edited by jordan smith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gfs and ecm going for this build of heights out in the Atlantic. The form horse from there is for the high to move east and over us. There is tho a chance it could go north or north east which would make fi look very interesting. Day 11 & 12 would have looked great on ecm

E88FEA2E-3596-4B22-A583-187AA5108C87.png

Edited by That ECM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

High pressure looked to build to the north west in 8 or 9 days a much better chance this time of some cold

to very cold weather.Looking this time for pressure to be to the north of us rather than collapsing over U.K. 

Possible polar vortex split could be a big reason for the high to remain to our north or northeast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, igloo said:

who no's we could well get a SSW event. the GFS is hinting at something colder and now the CFS is showing even colder stuff we can only dream

 

cfs-0-786.png

cfs-2-786.png

That would be quite something!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, well, well. ECM's last three frames have a lot of promise. High to our north and north-west

Might come to something, might not. But at least something of interest is being shown on the models now, which is more than we've had the past miserable 8 weeks

Edited by LRD

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the mean for D10:

gens-21-1-240.thumb.png.49f38fd373ad31dce5bc861375b60e9e.pnggraphe6_1000_299_157___.thumb.png.ef3f8295687758baf998a592d03d3675.png

There is a sign of HP building but the op needs to drag the ensembles that way as they are not close yet. Looking at the 2m temps for my location, not quite an outlier, but the op the best case scenario or close to it. We have seen heights over-amped by GFS many times at this range so need a few more days for any expectations of anything as cold as the op. It is another play on HP close to the UK, mainly dry but a cold-high on this run.

The D9 charts:

1126068365_gfseu-0-216(2).thumb.png.877a0d2afa3dc25c069a5c8c4e729e5c.png515207563_gemeu-0-216(2).thumb.png.9e3c712a702b449cfaece1940af780f4.png1828135606_ECE1-216(2).thumb.gif.e41fb64762ca5714ad1308ba469b2a36.gif

ECM supports that one-day build towards higher-lat, but both ECM and GFS op high hit the tPV to the north and the high cannot build or sustain north. The GEM less keen on that Atlantic high getting as far north.

The GEFS remain incoherent as a whole and best to wait till we see the net result of the potential at D9. So those that want a cold high have a chance of several days if the GFS op is correct. Otherwise more standard fare. The MJO signal on the GFS looking to take us into phases 2 and 3 (higher amplitude on the latter). The strat split may be more of a driver late winter and assuming it verifies (likely ATM) we will have to see where the pieces fall for the UK, but it will surely be an upgrade on the winter so far?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Both ECM and GFS picking up this height rise in the northern Atlantic around day 8 - UKMO also suggesting that progression looking at the 144. 
 

A few runs with this idea now so something to watch as the set up comes into closer range.

F19C23CB-C065-434E-924F-497B224FF483.thumb.png.d4bd29c2d0f38c99b4f10008886561ef.png
2F9C7CEB-620B-4481-A315-783E35290435.thumb.png.33f4d73c3e8ceacfe14af6cf806b5e4d.png
 

The high looks quite far north so hopefully we can get something cold setting up!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

another amplification beyond day 8 but how does it pay out and is there another one to follow ??  The polar profile is the big variable and ten days away is lala land 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guess we will latch onto anything after what has happened so far this winter but I have to say that in any normal scenario what the GFS and ECM are tantalising at c. T216 (ECM) and T228 (GFS) would hardly get a second look. It may develop into something more substantial which often happens. At the moment we'll all seize it with alacrity but it's not exactly thrilling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the best charts of the winter so far at around day 9, although that is of course not saying much and we know that Azores Lows often don't materialise and HP often ends up further South.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

well more times now 5/6 febr is to watch....image.thumb.png.9852c3468a680b64a61fa0592aba55f4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A slightly better (I wonder where that sits within the ensembles!) positioned HP cell, on today's 00Z run, at T+231:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Though, by the very end, our resident  European HP is back in place:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But there're still no signals for a long-lived cold and snow spell, in the ensembles:

t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

Give it time, eh?🤞

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...