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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The way our luck has gone so far this wretched winter, you'd have to go for Monday morning blues after the high spirits before closing time the night before from the model output. But, you never know, our luck might change. Boy do we deserve it! Even if it's a two day northerly toppler.

Yes, the 18z GFS is on the tease again in FI. At T276 it even takes the jet to Morocco 

I’m sure it will look exactly the same come the morning...........

Still, it proves enjoyable viewing.

4BA36BBF-3C49-4B1E-A3C4-4624969E0FA2.png

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The way our luck has gone so far this wretched winter, you'd have to go for Monday morning blues after the high spirits before closing time the night before from the model output. But, you never know, our luck might change. Boy do we deserve it! Even if it's a two day northerly toppler.

I think the majority on here would take that if it produces snowfall and this Tue morning might deliver a flake or two and maybe some surprise somewhere in the UK

after that then we look to see if we gain more amplitude around day ten in the Atlantic.

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Mm 18z you tease. Joking aside i think it's time us oldies had some luck. Now my prediction is the high will end up been more west and we shall have a direct northery eventually turning Easterly has the trough drops south. Snow showers for NE Scotland first moving down the east coast and eventually making the way far inland when the flow turns Easterly eventually hitting southern England with a couple of humber/wash and Thames streamers. Turning Nov/Dec 2010 in to a distant memory. We can hope can't we night all. 

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Pretty good agreement on a disturbance moving through tonight bringing some sleet and snow perhaps to parts of northern Ireland later this evening then to southern Scotland perhaps northern England overnight but there is uncertainty in the placement atm. 

Gem.. ?

overview_20200127_00_027.thumb.jpg.47ae4f0ce9445fba4c500f0af9413658.jpg

GFS.. ?

00_27_preciptype.thumb.png.ca3e368244643dea8a71d33a55d37e03.png

Hirlam.. ?

00_22_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.6be1da22978f9cd2850c547692180bb5.png

00_27_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.9f86b8704424c479feca352ae2956ec0.png

Icon.. ?

00_30_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.52cfd0d6840b46c3563c3f2bdff30cb9.png

Elsewhere wintry showers some perhaps quite heavy. Also more organised showery rain from the disturbance likely pushing across the south and southeast during this evening and the early part of the night windy with this. 

Edited by jordan smith
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Gfs and ecm going for this build of heights out in the Atlantic. The form horse from there is for the high to move east and over us. There is tho a chance it could go north or north east which would make fi look very interesting. Day 11 & 12 would have looked great on ecm

E88FEA2E-3596-4B22-A583-187AA5108C87.png

Edited by That ECM
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High pressure looked to build to the north west in 8 or 9 days a much better chance this time of some cold

to very cold weather.Looking this time for pressure to be to the north of us rather than collapsing over U.K. 

Possible polar vortex split could be a big reason for the high to remain to our north or northeast.

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Well, well, well. ECM's last three frames have a lot of promise. High to our north and north-west

Might come to something, might not. But at least something of interest is being shown on the models now, which is more than we've had the past miserable 8 weeks

Edited by LRD
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Looking at the mean for D10:

gens-21-1-240.thumb.png.49f38fd373ad31dce5bc861375b60e9e.pnggraphe6_1000_299_157___.thumb.png.ef3f8295687758baf998a592d03d3675.png

There is a sign of HP building but the op needs to drag the ensembles that way as they are not close yet. Looking at the 2m temps for my location, not quite an outlier, but the op the best case scenario or close to it. We have seen heights over-amped by GFS many times at this range so need a few more days for any expectations of anything as cold as the op. It is another play on HP close to the UK, mainly dry but a cold-high on this run.

The D9 charts:

1126068365_gfseu-0-216(2).thumb.png.877a0d2afa3dc25c069a5c8c4e729e5c.png515207563_gemeu-0-216(2).thumb.png.9e3c712a702b449cfaece1940af780f4.png1828135606_ECE1-216(2).thumb.gif.e41fb64762ca5714ad1308ba469b2a36.gif

ECM supports that one-day build towards higher-lat, but both ECM and GFS op high hit the tPV to the north and the high cannot build or sustain north. The GEM less keen on that Atlantic high getting as far north.

The GEFS remain incoherent as a whole and best to wait till we see the net result of the potential at D9. So those that want a cold high have a chance of several days if the GFS op is correct. Otherwise more standard fare. The MJO signal on the GFS looking to take us into phases 2 and 3 (higher amplitude on the latter). The strat split may be more of a driver late winter and assuming it verifies (likely ATM) we will have to see where the pieces fall for the UK, but it will surely be an upgrade on the winter so far?

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Both ECM and GFS picking up this height rise in the northern Atlantic around day 8 - UKMO also suggesting that progression looking at the 144. 
 

A few runs with this idea now so something to watch as the set up comes into closer range.

F19C23CB-C065-434E-924F-497B224FF483.thumb.png.d4bd29c2d0f38c99b4f10008886561ef.png
2F9C7CEB-620B-4481-A315-783E35290435.thumb.png.33f4d73c3e8ceacfe14af6cf806b5e4d.png
 

The high looks quite far north so hopefully we can get something cold setting up!

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Guess we will latch onto anything after what has happened so far this winter but I have to say that in any normal scenario what the GFS and ECM are tantalising at c. T216 (ECM) and T228 (GFS) would hardly get a second look. It may develop into something more substantial which often happens. At the moment we'll all seize it with alacrity but it's not exactly thrilling.

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Well the best charts of the winter so far at around day 9, although that is of course not saying much and we know that Azores Lows often don't materialise and HP often ends up further South.

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A slightly better (I wonder where that sits within the ensembles!) positioned HP cell, on today's 00Z run, at T+231:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Though, by the very end, our resident  European HP is back in place:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But there're still no signals for a long-lived cold and snow spell, in the ensembles:

t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

Give it time, eh??

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Models in general going for a changeable Westerly flow within the next few or so days. Today (particularly for Northern UK areas), and tomorrow and for part of Wednesday will be quite chilly as the South-Westerly to Westerly/North-Westerly flow brings in air from a cold origin.

2033E1EF-EE2F-4062-9972-47CC48F067B9.thumb.png.c5cbf040d029a2f742eb9b057b0c3c2c.pngAF8A9048-4FAA-4D38-923F-0923FDE8DC6F.thumb.png.86bb649e6dc82aa5a607389e07b4bb50.png080ADCB0-422E-4BE3-9016-7C9F7826F9BE.thumb.png.0c43d225d0d9ea6d74f69878666c5a87.png

Accompanied by fairly low heights over the UK too. Though some of the low heights will lift out on Wednesday. The showers and longer spells of precipitation this chilly Westerly flow will bring could be of a wintry nature. Tomorrow continuing to look the best day for wintry weather and some of these showers, especially the heavier ones, could see some sleet, perhaps snow, reach lower levels at times (examples included between today and Wednesday).

BE108E7E-6458-42A5-8B09-044D8238728D.thumb.png.84551fec3cc6f65663559f465e9ae112.png37153509-1DFF-4D06-BBC8-D7D568747713.thumb.png.4634b47548a8cc7563f7571572c7ccdf.pngE4575B70-B33A-41D0-80DD-08F206B0DE1C.thumb.png.364d1b95e3d69a4882aed8db6b078abf.png7260A835-B48D-40E8-BC49-588A7A4E948F.thumb.png.fd7f8fc86e7c6012cca9efabfa7e72c1.png
 

The weather then looks to become a bit more warmer, as the flow changes to more of a milder flow from the South-West. Low Pressure out West orientated more in a South-West to North-East direction to the North-West of the UK while High Pressure ridges over to the South-East of the UK. The area that’s likely to see the best of any settled breaks between the rain and showers. Some cooler returning Polar Maritime and Polar Maritime air could continue to affect more Northern parts of the UK at times.


A251E316-8446-405D-80CC-769925B71E64.thumb.png.fdf21126b02163ef2f192d29032c52c5.pngE9D87B48-6420-4667-9C59-E68FE40FCC9A.thumb.png.9915123bc0d3e48cf306d6ffabffd482.pngBADEF65C-1674-472F-AC2A-0A1DC779D306.thumb.png.3443485ca1659ff25a975811b9eecbb1.png

Peaking ahead at 216 hours, 3 of the longer range operational models below are showing High Pressure being held captive to the West of the UK in the Atlantic. And colder air spilling down from the North.

00Z GFS

B4205648-D612-41D9-8630-8ED88A0B79F2.thumb.png.399e69f928527f7d748b490139719a39.pngA5DBFF70-6AE4-445D-AE8E-7519B0A7B73E.thumb.png.c155ae1d340859bdccdf64bd7a80c1b4.png
 

00Z ECMWF

D06420C9-7ACE-4A1B-B6FA-4669BC16E9B3.thumb.png.9654ef9e84b75a67466708654968701a.png73926332-04C9-457A-A9CD-BF87CB4641CA.thumb.png.509581ae9733ecf7a9df477f7895142c.png

00Z GEM

87A0E5B9-8032-47BA-B024-7CEE985EE652.thumb.png.2b94ceda796cd4ce2021880577879038.png88FE344F-92AA-46E3-B0DA-EEE8950049D3.thumb.png.d9f78649ea9e3f7626bcc760940852d7.png

The GEM not really showing much of a proper ridge in the Atlantic. High Pressure is to the South-West of the UK, but a lot flatter. Still though managed still bring in a cool flow from the North-West. And it does look a bit more blocked upstream towards 240 hours:

7CA306AE-C8E0-4BD0-B4A1-FA22517AFD0B.thumb.png.61757a3a4dbeb31534a1992bc959f8de.png

It may be possible that while the GFS and ECMWF are probably playing the over-amplified game of the Atlantic ridging, it’s also possible the GEM may be underestimating amplification of High Pressure at that 216 hour time frame. I think since the GFS continues to play about with quite a pronounced mid Atlantic ridge and that the ECMWF has picked up on this, am tempted to pick their side.

Best, however, to be cautious as have certainly been in this position a number of times before. Could do with the ridging that the models show shifting out of that Eastern Canada/Eastern Northern America area to not get flattened too quickly. Have it sufficiently build far enough North in the Atlantic before the mischievous Lows to the West of the High squash it flat! 

Gonna keep my hopes low for now as is this outlook is still locked away in the cupboards of FI. But the Atlantic ridge and Northerly scenario does seem to be getting some improving support. Again, some likely wintriness in these next 2 days, in particular, for Northern high ground, to keep some going for now. 

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Well, I obviously have little or no idea what weather-pattern will dominate, come mid-late February...But, IMO, it's well worth remembering that, when last year's all-time highs were set, T850s were around +9C...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Not a given but as expected the height rises of the 0z less so on the 06z:

0z>gfseu-0-210.thumb.png.70d8829384c6a97c621347ad4e248502.png06z>1153921438_gfseu-0-204(1).thumb.png.66fe11e8db4903a4cb9af765b154b377.png

As probabilities go that was a good bet. More of a brief NW'ly flow than the 0z N'ly, and more fleeting cold, though still a cold high as it slowly trundles through our region. The ECM mean is closer to the GFS 06z than it was the ECM 0z op, so again expected:

ECM Mean & op at D9> EDM1-216.thumb.gif.da3e34a64fc7cde0291d1861658bba71.gifECM1-216.thumb.gif.07468ee24e7f649a26f1e3970397ad0a.gif

So another possible settled period coming post-D8 for maybe 4-6 days. 

Edited by IDO
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Can’t get the High to move far enough North,but this is the gfs 06 run,always seems to want to flatten the pattern quickly,whenever it tries to amplify it.So I would not take too much notice of what it is showing.

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