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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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8 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yeah? All I can see is a rapidly sinking high and a powerful PV.

The ECM 240hrs looks an awful long way from cold (if it looks like that or anything like that at the time)

I can't see much 'snow potential' either, LRD...If the way the GFS12Z ends is anything at all to go by, widespread, long-lasting cold & snow could be last things we need worry about?😴

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And even Those Who Cannot Be Named are mentioning large diurnal ranges, during sunny weather, later in February...

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3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

That chart would at least bring bright blue skies and relatively chilly conditions is heaps better than the current tropical-induced muck we're stuck with most of the time. I'd have thought it be welcomed whether wintry or not. 

I know the GFS often overdoes warm and cold 850s but there are -6/7 uppers between milder days on recent runs, which even pegged back to -4/5 can bring snow showers to many.

Yeah but come on. Most people on here are not looking for 'relatively chilly' conditions and blue skies. They're looking for snow and deep cold

A frosty few days before westerlies return will not cut it. And that's what the last two frames of the ECM show. Look, I'm all for being positive and hate being negative for its own sake but I don't try and put lipstick on a pig either

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15 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

It's all about the potential. Sure as it stands it doesn't produce much but like Mattwolves suggests a few tweaks and it would be game on. The polar vortex is shown to be showing signs of dividing in addition to this

Yes mate, my main point regarding my post was the vortex was showing signs of separating some what! Like I said earlier, we need a split vortex, and we need it to fall favourable... I'm not gonna even attempt to sugar coat this winter... There is only 1 thing that can save it... Ie, a complete factory reset of the NH.. I did say we need a few tweaks.... But it appears some already think..... We are up @hit creek, without a tweak.. 😂Anyway let's see what the ens say... 👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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34 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Certainly.  This one below showing tasty 850s close by to the UK. Backed A little more westerly and it would be a totally different ball game bringing into play northerlies... M ECM0-240.webp

EAA4AB58-C834-47D6-B198-A35255637A06.thumb.png.168c89da65d1ca200d3a0d53d63f4316.png

How I would like that chart to verify for the Eastern Alps ! Colder runs always out of reach for any confidence. Certainly, the ECM run this evenings offers some hope of colder temperatures for you lot back in Blighty.

 C

 

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8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes mate, my main point regarding my post was the vortex was showing signs of separating some what! Like I said earlier, we need a split vortex, and we need it to fall favourable... I'm not gonna even attempt to sugar coat this winter... There is only 1 thing that can save it... Ie, a complete factory reset of the NH.. I did say we need a few tweaks.... But it appears some already think..... We are up @hit creek, without a tweak.. 😂Anyway let's see what the ens say... 👍

I don't see any split in the troposperic vortex on the 12z EC,  just lobes of the vortex days 9-10, one over NW Atlantic/NE Canada the other over NE Europe/ NW Russia, with the UK in between. Still deep low heights over the arctic where the TPV is centred.

As a result, any cold N/NWly shot on the operational run could be transitory, before the ridge between the lobes or troughs of the TPV collapses and the upper flow flattens out again to westerlies or southwesterlies.

However, 12z EPS extended: ridging signal over NW Europe theme continues days 10-15

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1336000.thumb.png.8ec13128be4b466506c18931f0b54390.png

seems rinse and repeat of a few weeks of unsettled then week of high pressure this winter. But high pressure never gaining latitude to bring proper cold. 

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3 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yeah but come on. Most people on here are not looking for 'relatively chilly' conditions and blue skies. They're looking for snow and deep cold

A frosty few days before westerlies return will not cut it. And that's what the last two frames of the ECM show. Look, I'm all for being positive and hate being negative for its own sake but I don't try and put lipstick on a pig either

I agree.. It's nice to have frosty mornings here and there, but at this time of the season we need something more substantial and with the GEM you can see the ridge building NNE (it'll probably change tomorrow).. If we do get there, most of the time those synoptics leads to deep cold and snowfall and it's what cold lovers are craving for.

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GEM 240 is much more promising than the other models

image.thumb.png.1664356603c4c62133dfd59761ac05dc.png

But it's the GEM. And it's at 240hrs

Edited by LRD

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6 minutes ago, carinthian said:

How I would like that chart to verify for the Eastern Alps ! Colder runs always out of reach for any confidence. Certainly, the ECM run this evenings offers some hope of colder temperatures for you lot back in Blighty.

 C

 

I would like that to. Eastern Austria awaits me in Feb and that chart would be bringing the goods.

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6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I don't see any split in the troposperic vortex on the 12z EC,  just lobes of the vortex days 9-10, one over NW Atlantic/NE Canada the other over NE Europe/ NW Russia, with the UK in between. Still deep low heights over the arctic where the TPV is centred.

As a result, any cold N/NWly shot on the operational run could be transitory, before the ridge between the lobes or troughs of the TPV collapses and the upper flow flattens out again to westerlies or southwesterlies.

However, 12z EPS extended: ridging signal over NW Europe theme continues days 10-15

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1336000.thumb.png.8ec13128be4b466506c18931f0b54390.png

seems rinse and repeat of a few weeks of unsettled then week of high pressure this winter. But high pressure never gaining latitude to bring proper cold. 

Cheers Nick, the ECM mean also showing no sign of a split either. Do you think our chances of a split are receding, or perhaps still to early to call. Thanks in advance. 

Edited by Mattwolves

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3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

I agree.. It's nice to have frosty mornings here and there, but at this time of the season we need something more substantial and with the GEM you can see the ridge building NNE (it'll probably change tomorrow).. If we do get there, most of the time those synoptics leads to deep cold and snowfall and it's what cold lovers are craving for.

Indeed. I've just seen the GEM too. IF that did come off, it'd almost inevitably lead to cold weather as pressure rises to our North and NE and falls over Iberia

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23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@Nick F 

The strat ECM has just updated - Probs not public data yet but evolves 12 hours forward nicely from the 00z

00z into 12z

92D4E280-AD54-44FD-9D3B-B64118217B52.thumb.png.63eee85942c5a64ffc618d909c30d2aa.png56216E2B-A8ED-44EB-9508-715CEDF74BA4.thumb.png.fed89bbe88f1e12684093cb1a50d8557.png

Yes Marco Petanga just tweeted something very similar. He's usually fairly coy about ramping anything. Interesting model watching going forward. 

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52 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Cheers Nick, the ECM mean also showing no sign of a split either. Do you think our chances of a split are receding, or perhaps still to early to call. Thanks in advance. 

Still signs of major stretching and possible split down the line in the stratosphere polar vortex on 12z EC day 10, how this eventually penetrates down to the troposphere remains to be seen, some mirroring there in the trop, but can't really say it's coupled all round the northern hemisphere 

Day 10 EC 10mb (stratosphere)

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-0839200.thumb.png.e6627ea40db8afcd4278bac229df1b72.png

Day 10 EC 500mb (troposphere)

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-0839200.thumb.png.dc7db28991354b7b8053fe2010e20c5a.png

Day 10 EPS trop 500mb mean

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0904000.thumb.png.dd3e21c01fdcf9871848894fc4c685d4.png

Edited by Nick F

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51 minutes ago, DavidS said:

I would like that to. Eastern Austria awaits me in Feb and that chart would be bringing the goods.

Where abouts in Eastern Austria ? The mountains usually do well for snow with that projected flow at day 10 on ECM.

 C

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15 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Where abouts in Eastern Austria ? The mountains usually do well for snow with that projected flow at day 10 on ECM.

 C

Obertauern

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2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

There is only 1 thing that can save it... Ie, a complete factory reset of the NH.. 

The type of the outputs the models are currently churning out (the lack of anything really cold and snowy, bar some wintry chances this week), I think it certainly does. The hard drive of the Northern Hemisphere needs formatting to SNOW32.

At least in our part of the world 😅

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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Blizzards for NE Scotland.

image.thumb.png.8c360ddedea1eb44876b3f42c63265af.pngimage.thumb.png.5973e3b985a14e8cb9936a0c29477179.png

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It gets ridiculous. How many times during the past 15 days have we seen the same set up for 240 hours??

I am starting to believe that either we are too unlucky, or there is a systematic bias of models towards that direction

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GfS18z image.thumb.png.3e23e29b3183b8eeb2e890bcd8b81aa4.png

more runs seen with a -AO forecast 

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-8c across whole country with -12c into Scotland by D10.

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Shift that lot about 300 miles west and we'd really be in business.  Will be gone in 6 hours no doubt, so make the most of it whilst it's here!!!

image.thumb.png.a0875e12d9ae1b9c213a1dc17d0bdd98.pngimage.thumb.png.d3de252094269e168cfb022edf534c3e.png 

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