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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Yes mate, my main point regarding my post was the vortex was showing signs of separating some what! Like I said earlier, we need a split vortex, and we need it to fall favourable... I'm not gonna even attempt to sugar coat this winter... There is only 1 thing that can save it... Ie, a complete factory reset of the NH.. I did say we need a few tweaks.... But it appears some already think..... We are up @hit creek, without a tweak.. ?Anyway let's see what the ens say... ?

    I don't see any split in the troposperic vortex on the 12z EC,  just lobes of the vortex days 9-10, one over NW Atlantic/NE Canada the other over NE Europe/ NW Russia, with the UK in between. Still deep low heights over the arctic where the TPV is centred.

    As a result, any cold N/NWly shot on the operational run could be transitory, before the ridge between the lobes or troughs of the TPV collapses and the upper flow flattens out again to westerlies or southwesterlies.

    However, 12z EPS extended: ridging signal over NW Europe theme continues days 10-15

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1336000.thumb.png.8ec13128be4b466506c18931f0b54390.png

    seems rinse and repeat of a few weeks of unsettled then week of high pressure this winter. But high pressure never gaining latitude to bring proper cold. 

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    New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

    Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

    COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    3 minutes ago, LRD said:

    Yeah but come on. Most people on here are not looking for 'relatively chilly' conditions and blue skies. They're looking for snow and deep cold

    A frosty few days before westerlies return will not cut it. And that's what the last two frames of the ECM show. Look, I'm all for being positive and hate being negative for its own sake but I don't try and put lipstick on a pig either

    I agree.. It's nice to have frosty mornings here and there, but at this time of the season we need something more substantial and with the GEM you can see the ridge building NNE (it'll probably change tomorrow).. If we do get there, most of the time those synoptics leads to deep cold and snowfall and it's what cold lovers are craving for.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    GEM 240 is much more promising than the other models

    image.thumb.png.1664356603c4c62133dfd59761ac05dc.png

    But it's the GEM. And it's at 240hrs

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
    6 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    How I would like that chart to verify for the Eastern Alps ! Colder runs always out of reach for any confidence. Certainly, the ECM run this evenings offers some hope of colder temperatures for you lot back in Blighty.

     C

     

    I would like that to. Eastern Austria awaits me in Feb and that chart would be bringing the goods.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    I don't see any split in the troposperic vortex on the 12z EC,  just lobes of the vortex days 9-10, one over NW Atlantic/NE Canada the other over NE Europe/ NW Russia, with the UK in between. Still deep low heights over the arctic where the TPV is centred.

    As a result, any cold N/NWly shot on the operational run could be transitory, before the ridge between the lobes or troughs of the TPV collapses and the upper flow flattens out again to westerlies or southwesterlies.

    However, 12z EPS extended: ridging signal over NW Europe theme continues days 10-15

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1336000.thumb.png.8ec13128be4b466506c18931f0b54390.png

    seems rinse and repeat of a few weeks of unsettled then week of high pressure this winter. But high pressure never gaining latitude to bring proper cold. 

    Cheers Nick, the ECM mean also showing no sign of a split either. Do you think our chances of a split are receding, or perhaps still to early to call. Thanks in advance. 

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    I agree.. It's nice to have frosty mornings here and there, but at this time of the season we need something more substantial and with the GEM you can see the ridge building NNE (it'll probably change tomorrow).. If we do get there, most of the time those synoptics leads to deep cold and snowfall and it's what cold lovers are craving for.

    Indeed. I've just seen the GEM too. IF that did come off, it'd almost inevitably lead to cold weather as pressure rises to our North and NE and falls over Iberia

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    @Nick F 

    The strat ECM has just updated - Probs not public data yet but evolves 12 hours forward nicely from the 00z

    00z into 12z

    92D4E280-AD54-44FD-9D3B-B64118217B52.thumb.png.63eee85942c5a64ffc618d909c30d2aa.png56216E2B-A8ED-44EB-9508-715CEDF74BA4.thumb.png.fed89bbe88f1e12684093cb1a50d8557.png

    Yes Marco Petanga just tweeted something very similar. He's usually fairly coy about ramping anything. Interesting model watching going forward. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    52 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Cheers Nick, the ECM mean also showing no sign of a split either. Do you think our chances of a split are receding, or perhaps still to early to call. Thanks in advance. 

    Still signs of major stretching and possible split down the line in the stratosphere polar vortex on 12z EC day 10, how this eventually penetrates down to the troposphere remains to be seen, some mirroring there in the trop, but can't really say it's coupled all round the northern hemisphere 

    Day 10 EC 10mb (stratosphere)

    ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-0839200.thumb.png.e6627ea40db8afcd4278bac229df1b72.png

    Day 10 EC 500mb (troposphere)

    ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-0839200.thumb.png.dc7db28991354b7b8053fe2010e20c5a.png

    Day 10 EPS trop 500mb mean

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0904000.thumb.png.dd3e21c01fdcf9871848894fc4c685d4.png

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    51 minutes ago, DavidS said:

    I would like that to. Eastern Austria awaits me in Feb and that chart would be bringing the goods.

    Where abouts in Eastern Austria ? The mountains usually do well for snow with that projected flow at day 10 on ECM.

     C

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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
    15 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Where abouts in Eastern Austria ? The mountains usually do well for snow with that projected flow at day 10 on ECM.

     C

    Obertauern

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

    There is only 1 thing that can save it... Ie, a complete factory reset of the NH.. 

    The type of the outputs the models are currently churning out (the lack of anything really cold and snowy, bar some wintry chances this week), I think it certainly does. The hard drive of the Northern Hemisphere needs formatting to SNOW32.

    At least in our part of the world ?

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Blizzards for NE Scotland.

    image.thumb.png.8c360ddedea1eb44876b3f42c63265af.pngimage.thumb.png.5973e3b985a14e8cb9936a0c29477179.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

    It gets ridiculous. How many times during the past 15 days have we seen the same set up for 240 hours??

    I am starting to believe that either we are too unlucky, or there is a systematic bias of models towards that direction

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    -8c across whole country with -12c into Scotland by D10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Shift that lot about 300 miles west and we'd really be in business.  Will be gone in 6 hours no doubt, so make the most of it whilst it's here!!!

    image.thumb.png.a0875e12d9ae1b9c213a1dc17d0bdd98.pngimage.thumb.png.d3de252094269e168cfb022edf534c3e.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Funny how the 18z generally produces the BOOM charts. Again days 9-10, so can't be relied on. But the 12z EPS mean and recent operational runs of various models hint at amplification of an Atlantic ridge in this timeframe. Just so far we haven't got as amplified as the 18z GFS.

    GFSOPEU18_234_1.thumb.png.98e81438a5b5a57cb3bbd209b054fd93.pngGFSOPEU18_234_2.thumb.png.42d91b2750e9d07497d9754716ad3994.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Pub run special again from the gfs

    this at day ten

    gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.53f49c199309fb4e6b5c887bace8a9de.pnggfsnh-1-240.thumb.png.aa0447ab94983de96e9b8f3c0235e954.png

    are we goin to have a cold lock -in or be kicked out early in the morning with sober heads

    we find out in the morning:drunk-emoji:

    what ever it is,some good eye candy showing now,are the models finally latching on to the warming showing in FL.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Potential reload from the north from 288,the op and control have been showing this for the last few days.

    gfsnh-0-288.thumb.png.12f875ba59f732771fd8c8a27b535ab1.png

    at least we have the lower height's into Europe on this run.

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    are we goin to have a cold lock -in or be kicked out early in the morning with sober heads

    we find out in the morning:drunk-emoji:

    The way our luck has gone so far this wretched winter, you'd have to go for Monday morning blues after the high spirits before closing time the night before from the model output. But, you never know, our luck might change. Boy do we deserve it! Even if it's a two day northerly toppler.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Blizzards for NE Scotland.

    image.thumb.png.8c360ddedea1eb44876b3f42c63265af.pngimage.thumb.png.5973e3b985a14e8cb9936a0c29477179.png

    Not bad at all! Chillier 850 hPa temperatures than I expected with a wide area of -10*C 850 hPa temperatures flooding South through the UK. Would give that North-Westerly/Northerly an 8.6/10.

    For a 10, some deeper, lower, 500mb heights from the Scandinavian trough to back a touch more West through the UK with the Atlantic High also backing just that little more Westwards. And while it might be a bit of a stretch, for that High to become even more amplified terminating the Vortex over Greenland. But imagine it will change again on the next run, though it has been a few runs the GFS has produced some kind of Atlantic High. At one point, one of these North-Westerly to Northerly flows has got to happen. No more hiding behind the scary depths of FI please, Northerly! There’s no need to be afraid of the UK ?‍♂️

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