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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    33 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    @Tim Bland keeping the dream alive ? still give it little to no chance but gfs is sticking with earlier output

    11C276A4-C88E-4540-856D-7C91C238FB9E.png

    Desperate times isn’t it ? All we want is a friging sleet shower in mid winter ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Maybe something is a-brewing...

    But these two don't seem to tally up that well...still looks as robust as it has done all winter there.

    image.thumb.png.52d49569981c8d643dbbc890137e3cbc.pngimage.thumb.png.f98cb4311427769626aa402847fc769f.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Desperate times isn’t it ? All we want is a friging sleet shower in mid winter ?

    Looking at the snow charts, looks like the usual favoured areas:

    anim_pzq8.gif

    Nothing south of Manchester settling on this run.

    Good consistency for heights building in the UK arena after D10, well into FI:

    anim_qba7.gif

    The tPV still modelled as hardcore so not sure any ridging above mid-lat has a great chance ATM? With a chunk of tPV over Greenland from D8 the natural route for the HP westerly's cells is to ridge E/NE from the Atlantic which is not that helpful. All JFF and time for change.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I think you can have all the analogues you want, but nothing's closer to reality than what you start with...And springtime, this year, looks like starting with a lot of warm air.:unsure2:?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    But that’s a February chart, at least 3 weeks until the start of spring... ???

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    23 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    But that’s a February chart, at least 3 weeks until the start of spring... ???

    At the end of December people were saying there is still 9 weeks of winter left, roll on a month, and we are heading for one of the mildest January's ever! The models say what they say and at present they suggest mild rather than cold as a whole, so does not matter how long is left if the NH pattern is cycling us through a long-term mild synoptic!

    The mean has a bit of a way before it mimics the op, so zonal is still possible. Personally some early warmth and settled conditions rather than average and wet is my preference as chasing rainbows is wearing thin:

    T300 mean>>>gensnh-21-1-300.thumb.png.bf00f63a8ebf45e695fc7c776b7748ac.png

    Edited by IDO
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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    I think you can have all the analogues you want, but nothing's closer to reality than what you start with...And springtime, this year, looks like starting with a lot of warm air.:unsure2:?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    God that looks desperate to a man going on a skiing holiday to Austria who would just like to see it snowing once this winter!

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    Maybe something is a-brewing...

    But these two don't seem to tally up that well...still looks as robust as it has done all winter there.

    image.thumb.png.52d49569981c8d643dbbc890137e3cbc.pngimage.thumb.png.f98cb4311427769626aa402847fc769f.png
     

    The 6z GFS continues the trend of the big drop in the zonal winds

    u10serie.thumb.png.bde81e0e662b3ae0c5902fcc91cbbea3.png

    Also your first image and the zonal wind chart are from different runs. This chart is the one that goes with the first image

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Maybe, once next week's sleet & cold rain is out of the way, Day 10 is growing its 'summertime plumage'??

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Who knows??

    Could be in for the UK's warmest year on the CET record since we are getting off to such a warm start already. We almost got the 25C Isotherm at 850hpa last summer. Maybe this year we could get close to the 30C Isotherm reaching us

    Edited by SqueakheartLW
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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Could be in for the UK's warmest year on the CET record since we are getting off to such a warm start already. We almost got the 25C Isotherm at 850hpa last summer. Maybe this year we could get close to the 30C Isotherm reaching us

    The 25C upper air temp did reach the UK during June(I think) but surface winds came off the North Sea so the temperatures were not as hot as they would of been if the air came off the continent. 

    Back to the hear and now, some hints height rises will try and buckle the jet towards Russia thanks to the weak heights leaving the Arctic but not affecting our weather as of yet. Some chilly air is forecast but nothing substantial that there be much of a snow risk away from the higher ground although hopefully for some areas, it will mean brighter weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    A nice evening for sitting in the beer garden??

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The PV finally disrupts and starts moving out of Greenland on the GFS 12 hrs run but this happens after T240hrs so when the resolution drops .

    Still nice to see ! Earlier that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic is a total pain which boxes in the limpet Euro high and delays its move nw .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The PV finally disrupts and starts moving out of Greenland on the GFS 12 hrs run but this happens after T240hrs so when the resolution drops .

    Still nice to see ! Earlier that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic is a total pain which boxes in the limpet Euro high and delays its move nw .

     

    It's brewing up nicely, Nick ?

    I thought the UKMO 12h looked quite good later on.. What's your take on it? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
    6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    A nice evening for sitting in the beer garden??

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Capture.thumb.PNG.6aed59a883d433d86d819331babbc139.PNGCapture2.thumb.PNG.5951d8d6748c8cbeb0d7b50bd3b8d48f.PNGCapture3.thumb.PNG.c05ab15a93d7aea5bf6da802fac45236.PNG

    Cloudy with 12°C ? might want a jumper on!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    GFS 12Z continuing the theme of more in the way of high pressure into February after a trashy first few days. Yes please - AS LONG AS IT'S SUNNY! None of the current gloom...

    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    12 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    It's brewing up nicely, Nick ?

    I thought the UKMO 12h looked quite good later on.. What's your take on it? 

    It looks pretty similar upstream to the GFS .

    The drama really starts a bit later . You can see that amplified wave working east on the GFS , this then down stream helps to amplify the Canadian high and that moves east .

    The issue is that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic . If that doesn’t split allowing the limpet high an escape route nw then we end up on the wrong side of the jet.

    If we see a quicker clearance of that shortwave energy then that would really help .

    Interestingly the pattern in the eastern USA with colder conditions was what NCEP suggested in their February outlook and they thought the MJO would be playing a role in that but we’ve had conflicting views on how much impact it would have .

    Some later MJO updates suggested it would have a limited impact but the GFS looks like some lagged effects of that .

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    It looks pretty similar upstream to the GFS .

    The drama really starts a bit later . You can see that amplified wave working east on the GFS , this then down stream helps to amplify the Canadian high and that moves east .

    The issue is that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic . If that doesn’t split allowing the limpet high an escape route nw then we end up on the wrong side of the jet.

    If we see a quicker clearance of that shortwave energy then that would really help .

    Interestingly the pattern in the eastern USA with colder conditions was what NCEP suggested in their February outlook and they thought the MJO would be playing a role in that but we’ve had conflicting views on how much impact it would have .

     

    Thanks Nick ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Too early to be greasing the skis just yet, I think...as yet another UK HP looks set to keep both the cold and the warmth elsewhere??

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    I must admit I haven't bothered looking for a few days but this is quite the change.

    Obviously not withstanding the massive failing of GEFS back in December in this respect, hopefully it is more on the ball this time around? We shall see. If so back end of Feb / early March may be our best bet for something a bit more wintery

    u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.d01e62f16f715e82d8266ec704f66c43.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    15 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Too early to be greasing the skis just yet, I think...as yet another UK HP looks set to keep both the cold and the warmth elsewhere??

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

     Shouldn't comment on long range output but that's a colder high than current one with more continental influence. The current high started off in a good position for clear conditions but alas has settled into a very poor position in this respect. Grey gloom to add to the gloomy January feeling.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

    I must admit I haven't bothered looking for a few days but this is quite the change.

    Obviously not withstanding the massive failing of GEFS back in December in this respect, hopefully it is more on the ball this time around? We shall see. If so back end of Feb / early March may be our best bet for something a bit more wintery

    u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.d01e62f16f715e82d8266ec704f66c43.png

    Been thinking back to 1995 recently and how things turned tail end Feb into March after a mostly mild Atlantic driven winter bar the odd cold snap.. early March 95 brought lots of polar air and snow for some. Not saying this will happen but there are many instances in more recent years when winter has arrived as it is ending after predominantly wet mild season.. some of the most potent cold of the year has happened then 2005, 2006, 2013, 2018...

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Regarding those comments from damianslaw, must say do remember 2005 well. That 2004/05 Winter felt under-whelming overall (certainly for this area). But that mid to later part of February 2005 did bring a sudden transformation to some much colder, wintry, conditions with snow on the attack from the North and East! The below charts from the GFS archive illustrates this quite well:

    628850C3-3DC6-4A86-822B-427E543C1067.thumb.png.78896e86a4423c5ea1f31c844cb6f143.png4E581F13-D572-4B9D-8B96-5FF8DBBC2CF7.thumb.png.244c800bdc33128ff3c4e703e11e43e9.png549966C9-60F2-43E5-AFE5-2AE9CE990FDB.thumb.png.34a14c5affcb5c02e59f761aab9d1c8f.png5C810EEC-F61A-4D64-B9E4-0EA808185F32.thumb.png.f6a8884b0bbb017b64e5877066920ffd.pngF2D90604-B69A-4A69-8CA3-C9A02E4262D2.thumb.png.ca3802542074031556f2a3bd5b68589a.png4168ECE3-9591-4AD4-8AB6-D8422695D119.thumb.png.92f698044e6418f50a1d444f7c460587.pngE4E3FD4C-B07C-4CFE-B460-DA1CCEFD74F1.thumb.png.0fde478ddbd772d2ac0192b93edef7e4.png5A2D0317-C89D-4B4A-9C36-86FE36FF22A7.thumb.png.82cded01d979e631f4e578b327294a6e.png72B94905-3D61-493A-9EFB-712B0E5BAB30.thumb.png.ce183498acf903e4de145afc159612be.png4E14AF3A-2151-428C-A534-341F7BECAFFA.thumb.png.3f422171bffd55da8cc08ab5ef953dc2.png9AE49197-CA64-4D84-B149-436CE468600E.thumb.png.56f36e067f792a306d6c7bea36747ed7.png1623EB4D-A3BB-4287-92CD-268EF989BD87.thumb.png.c88133ede67b2f7c0de202637166c461.png
    This setup didn’t really bring more than around a cm or two of the sparkly, white, stuff. However, synoptically, the Northern blocking was pretty impressive, and the Easterly/North-Easterlies lasted a fair while. 

    It may be possible that should the likes of the GFS continue to model some kind of UK High within the next 2 weeks and there can be room for it to shift further North (a weakening Vortex to help with this), then repeats like late February 2005, March 2013 etc isn’t totally infeasible. Albeit the latter in particular being a hard feat to achieve. Plus, would need other models to start showing signs for a UK High to develop, or maybe just having some kind of ridging developing in the mid-Atlantic. As a starting point anyway. 

    I’m sure there would unlikely to be anything better for the cold and snow weather fans than to see the European High get flushed away down Netweather’s large loo. ? If not, a good ol’ kick up towards the North of the UK would do nicely for that fiendish High!

    For the cold weather, that light at the end of the tunnel is certainly needed.?Perhaps the current roll out of the 12Z ECMWF could slip in a cold surprise towards the end. Although, even next week, while nothing too impressive, looks to be chilly for a time with models showing a Westerly to North-Westerly airstream bringing a possible wintry mix of weather at times. Most especially, but not necessarily exclusively, for Northern and Western high ground.

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