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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Both the ECM and GFS show quite a lot of energy digging south into the Atlantic .

    The day ten ECM op isn’t too bad , that even shows the PV becoming a bit more disrupted .

    The problems been getting these day ten charts to survive and count down .

     

     

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    New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

    Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

    COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    1 minute ago, A Frayed Knot said:

    Rain? Sleet? Snow? Ain't got a clue, can someone explain please thanks. 

    Snow is showed in the hatched area but caution is certainly advised as this is also often wide of the mark at this range . It’s just a guide at this juncture. That’s my understanding anyway and happy to be corrected .

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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
    1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Snow is showed in the hatched area but caution is certainly advised as this is also often wide of the mark at this range . It’s just a guide at this juncture. That’s my understanding anyway and happy to be corrected .

    Thanks, Wales looks to be in the firing line on high ground let's hope it upgrades to an even wider scale for all of the UK ???

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Just to show a little more detail compared to the other models, here's the UKV:

    viewimage.thumb.png.6f5fea4bd8e7c6d1b2a6310f96104b28.png 112729345_viewimage(1).thumb.png.3065d31351ef680d76dae155d5e5dbf9.png

    Not worth getting hung up on these, as it will change, a lot!

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    7 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

    Thanks, Wales looks to be in the firing line on high ground let's hope it upgrades to an even wider scale for all of the UK ???

    Would be nice, because it looks like cold. Rain for the south East. Vile. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

    UKMO starting to look a bit more interesting imo.

    Signs of HP building out east and lows sinking southwards with time. spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Hmmm is it me or does the gfs and ukmo starting to look a little better with each run in the last 24 hours!!not a snowstorm by any means but colder with northwest winds and troughs going in a more south east direction?

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    8 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Hmmm is it me or does the gfs and ukmo starting to look a little better with each run in the last 24 hours!!not a snowstorm by any means but colder with northwest winds and troughs going in a more south east direction?

    yeah. .and has been spewing  up for around  a week  now in supporting datas. .

    Ie- EPS/GEFS. .500 geos! etc 

    and is now getting a grip in the operationals. ..

    and a time shortening sync! !!!

     

    4 the 100th  time it 'could be' a noteworthy  semi -polar  incursion! !!

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Perhaps a little excitement early next week folks... At least something more akin to winter! Look at the 192hr charts, stubborn heights over SE Europe being replaced by lower heights finally!! Could we eventually be looking at a slow but fruitful change.. 

    gfs-0-192.png

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The Canadian high and the deepish low near the ne USA might give a window of opportunity .

    The storm if it’s amplified enough could force some better ridging ahead of it .

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
    2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Perhaps a little excitement early next week folks... At least something more akin to winter! Look at the 192hr charts, stubborn heights over SE Europe being replaced by lower heights finally!! Could we eventually be looking at a slow but fruitful change.. 

    gfs-0-192.png

    This is what we need to see small changes in the shorter range rather than looking 240h+ every day this winter.

    The shorter range changes can have a big impact further down the line but until we resolve the timing of the low on Monday night its best to keep an open mind.

    I could be straw clutching but aren't we all at this stage of the winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    A couple of runs showing high pressure building over or near to us.

    9579781D-2060-41F5-8F0B-EE40F934196F.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I think it’s very likely that the Canadian high will verify and some sort of low near the ne USA.

    The amplitude of that will effect any ridge downstream . The issue is where the dig in the jet happens .

    You don’t want to get caught the wrong side of that . Regardless the Canadian high , ne USA low combo give a chance for something a bit colder for the UK .

    We’ll see what the ECM does later .

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    1 hour ago, Drifter said:

    UKMO starting to look a bit more interesting imo.

    Signs of HP building out east and lows sinking southwards with time. spacer.png

    I’m liking UKMO but for a different reason (though it could work in tandem with your thinking)

    That little ridge building between the low pressure systems to our west is our next shot (albeit slim) of something colder setting up. At 144 there is plenty of time for upgrades/changes. GFS shows a similar ridge and just flattens it but at this range there is at least a ‘pinch’ of potential.

    6A62D1B4-8FF6-4113-ADA3-F9A8B2F4737C.thumb.png.d4f0dd2b8690cc2739d8699b2f1eac0e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Just for fun, perturbation 8 of the 12z GEFS is rather interesting In deep FI.  Channel low after channel low!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Just for fun, perturbation 8 of the 12z GEFS is rather interesting In deep FI.  Channel low after channel low!

    Considering the snow line follows the m4 its bound to be right???

    65E85A49-A378-487C-BF93-301BA8C8F04B.png

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    I know it's FI but I feel something special is brewing.. 

    image.thumb.png.83cb7958d0be045ae60be8276647cf15.png

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