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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngGEFS 0z

    spacer.pngGFS 0z @ 150

    spacer.pngGFS 0z @150

    Some snow likely for some between Mon 27th and Wed 29th ( especially over 150 m ).

    in fairness to GFS it has hinted at this in the modelling for 10 days now.

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    New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

    Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

    COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    8 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    The Pacific convection cycle has worked as expected, and actually the current spike would be above expectations and a cold lover’s best case scenario if the vortex hadn’t strengthened and coupled as it did. The forecasts and hopecasts didn’t expect such a swift vortex intensification and dominance of the pattern. Clearly the seasonal modelling correctly predicted that intensification this time around, and sustained IO forcing in the flatter phases of the MJO profile served to enhance/support that situation. Perhaps also too little emphasis was given to the still weakly positive QBO in December. Cold winters from wQBO Decembers are rare.

    Early to be writing off the season as the current momentum surge may yet have positive consequences, and a greater chance of blocking in March given the timing of the next Pacific wave is distinctly possible, but my own feeling as of today is that we are pretty much done for this cold season now. I can see a Euro High dominated February on the horizon. Here’s hoping for a slap in the face.

    Lets hope so!

     

    06z A fairway south on the track at 84- could be a midlands direct hit like the ICON

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Lets hope so!

     

    06z A fairway south on the track at 84- could be a midlands direct hit like the ICON

    Barely develops on the 06z until bout 114 hours!!!could be one of those that keep shifting further and further south with each run!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Just to put a bit of meat on the bones   The icon either brings  damaging windspeeds  Or snow  to most of England/ Wales   take your pick   

     image.thumb.png.98449333315848ec009b01995a7ea349.png   image.thumb.png.06fe1c88692b3672ba27105755b5339f.png    

    image.png

    image.png

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    GFS 06z blows up the low post-UK exit so we miss the main force of that storm:

    anim_zbo1.gif

    The cold front mainly rain but maybe back-edge snow with altitude up north. Though usual suspects as per settling-snow chart:

    T114> 114-780UK.thumb.gif.aafd4beb8026060f47ce82b997e5b48a.gif T138> 138-780UK.thumb.gif.d7ccb66355fc6d83bc6df490255c12e2.gif

    Nice steady cold flow following so further chances especially for NW Scotland and where the colder uppers push through. So a bit of an upgrade, with 3+ days of colder westerly's:

    anim_cng2.gif

    Not snow'maggedon, but worthy of a mention in the hope it verifies?

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Interesting to see the whole NH modelled in a cold zonal flow with that bottled up cold just looking to leak south, we can see the cold-fingers on these charts:

    gfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.48839a9037d270752ddff7423cc65341.pnggfsnh-1-228.thumb.png.f445c7ad9f217c294417741e8ca23b5a.png

    That ties in with the background signals still working but unable to conquer the strat-trop forcing, ergo no progressive amplification of those waves, with the westerly flow cycling round mid-latitudes on a continuous loop.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM extended - very disappointing for the next 10-12 days:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020012300_240.image.thumb.png.aaebdf60273563a712f3225a85078982.png


    There is a high pressure cluster appearing at the end of the run today, but hard to say at that range if it's just noise or a trend. Biggest cluster still going for continuation of Atlantic driven westerlies.

    image.thumb.png.67bd548b676be4c9baa20094842752c3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    Europe going in to freezer next week :))) Uppers as low as -8C reaching northern Finland by the end of January, brace yourselves 

    gfs-1-192.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    A trade-off for the slower westerly flow that gives us a longer colder flow also means the alternating warm sectors will reflect that, D10-11:

    gfseu-9-246.thumb.png.249653956b4b6eab0638e0895eca0b63.pnggfseu-9-270.thumb.png.abd091e3473730dba1b5487757f9aeed.png

    JFF but within the bounds of possibilities.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, Catacol said:

    Early to be writing off the season as the current momentum surge may yet have positive consequences, and a greater chance of blocking in March given the timing of the next Pacific wave is distinctly possible, but my own feeling as of today is that we are pretty much done for this cold season now. I can see a Euro High dominated February on the horizon. Here’s hoping for a slap in the face.

    woah, that's pretty disappointing for coldies.

    However the short/mid term models only support this point of view until well into February. ECM clusters this morning tell the same story as they have for days. Blues to the north / yellows+oranges to the south mean a likely strengthening of a westerly regime compared to the norm.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020012300_360.

    However, just for the next few weeks, even a small wrap-around low can possibly introduce enough cold air from the north for just a few hours to bring snow for some:

    114-515UK.GIF?23-6  114-574UK.GIF?23-6

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Here comes another wild goose chase............

    image.thumb.png.3d46a9aa97b1a4b94228c14e0771e580.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    Lets hope so!

     

    06z A fairway south on the track at 84- could be a midlands direct hit like the ICON

    Further nudges southward to come?  Could be a few more felled trees and fences for southern areas again.

    image.thumb.png.66fcad4d2bb524403663b4066f2593f5.png

     

    I agree with Catacol as have always thought Jan and Feb would suffer with wrong place HP cells for proper cold.  Feb not here yet but these patterns generally last well into Feb when set in like now.  But I too can see a pretty cold Spring coming

    BFTP

     

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    But, sadly, not enough 'potential' to prevent me from coming over all sleepy, all of a sudden!?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Some potential at last ....

    ECA617CA-2EB6-419C-AAA0-73AC4E809584.png

    Not much support from the ensembles, joining the small noise (ATM) cluster. The mean:

    1034367128_gensnh-21-1-384(5).thumb.png.c86fb381c0c40c6a85d1da52e1489d80.png graphe4_1000___8.8679245283_62.955465587_.thumb.png.aa6987edf36816db7d5c7a826479562d.png

    Would need the op to run with this for 10 days plus and be joined by the ensembles. Note to watch, but as it stands very nominal possibilities. The Scandi pressure charts shows op as a whopping outlier in FI^^^ The mean significantly lower.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    2 hours ago, weirpig said:

    Just to put a bit of meat on the bones   The icon either brings  damaging windspeeds  Or snow  to most of England/ Wales   take your pick   

     image.thumb.png.98449333315848ec009b01995a7ea349.png   image.thumb.png.06fe1c88692b3672ba27105755b5339f.png    

    image.png

    image.png

    Hope that bottom wind chart is kmph and not mph or else the SE corner will be flattened

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    Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
    Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

    Hope that bottom wind chart is kmph and not mph or else the SE corner will be flattened

    Definitely km/h

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    GEM has Monday's system further south

    image.thumb.png.7572e9f5e823cbdbc7254f9ba95af712.png

    JMA has it as some sort of wave rather than an enclosed system

    image.thumb.png.3bb54e087325f89367f9f51b87441d7c.png

    ECM has something similar, it to further south as a smaller feature mostly affecting the Channel and northern France 

    image.thumb.png.ab8d16d9458b41352a1b8ecfb0dc8318.png

    NAVGEM, again, a similar feature with the winds mainly affecting France.

    image.thumb.png.12a60d48975fbb3179c26e6617cdf484.png

    Definitely a chance of snowfall across the UK. 

    Edited by PerfectStorm
    wdwde
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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    I have been comforting myself this winter with the fact that I am off skiing to Ischgl in Austria for the second week of February and would at least see some snow there!  Mind you, even that's been a worry!

    But as that time comes into the range of the models, I'm reminded that when I was last there two years ago, it coincided with perhaps the best bit of winter weather we've had for many a year as the "Beast from the East" visited. By the time I returned the excitement and the snow was on its last legs.

    There's just a hint in the far reaches of the models that, once again, I could miss out on a nice bit of UK winter weather. Perhaps not in the same class as 2018's week, but certainly one which, if it did materialise, would be sensational when compared to what we have endured so far this winter.

     

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