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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

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No surprise another set of poor runs with no proper code in the reliable time frame and the normal teases in lala land and beyond. It does look drier though away from the north west with little to tickle the rain gauge for a fair while.

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely but it will not be by chance.

image.thumb.png.621a1a2b1df8717d3cf43860bc32a548.pngimage.thumb.png.a5e6da2620f466bf0ff42768318ef5d3.png

While SSWs can bring notable cold spells to the UK, it does not guarantee it, as it is down to luck as if the blocking sets up favourably to influence the UK with an airflow from a cold source.  I only know of three SSWs that were soon followed by a notable cold spell in the UK (Feb 2018 = cold late month), (early Jan 2013 = cold mid-month), (second half Jan 2009 = cold early Feb).  I am not sure that any of the cold spells in winter 2009-10 or the Dec 2010 severe spell followed on from any SSWs.  

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I've said for much of the week, the direction of travel is from the NW as we go through latter part of the month, the models have backed away a bit from that, but do still show a trough anchoring down from the NW eventually, but may come unstuck against cut off low off eastern seaboard, which might merge and flatten the pattern, but too far out to call.

In the reliable, high pressure only very slowing sinking southwards, so a dry period ahead, especially in the south, a weak front will bring some rain to northern parts Tuesday. More cloud generally though especially in the north, limiting frost and fog for the south. Temps not far off average overall. 

Longer term, a sea-saw between the high and colder NW flow looks form horse, less of a flat pattern with jet taking on a more amplified flow..

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ICON another run to deliver the NW cold, T180:

image.thumb.jpg.7757436a2bb90db752501b68cfe81b85.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3ffd35118fc7bcfae0258fb9d4a82188.jpg

This NW'ly now about day 8, had decreased in likelihood on the models a couple of days ago, but I think it is well back on the cards today.  Maybe it will be fleeting, but an opportunity for snow for some, and most of us have never even gotten close this winter so far, let's see what the rest of the models suggest...

Edited by Mike Poole
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34 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON another run to deliver the NW cold, T180:

image.thumb.jpg.7757436a2bb90db752501b68cfe81b85.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3ffd35118fc7bcfae0258fb9d4a82188.jpg

This NW'ly now about day 8, had decreased in likelihood on the models a couple of days ago, but I think it is well back on the cards today.  Maybe it will be fleeting, but an opportunity for snow for some, and most of us have never even gotten close this winter so far, let's see what the rest of the models suggest...

If it was to verify, that could be of interest to Scotland but for the rest of the UK no.  Just goes to show how little this winter has had going for it when someone posts a chart at 180hrs that would only be of interest for Scotland.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

If it was to verify, that could be of interest to Scotland but for the rest of the UK no.

Yes, as shown, but I was considering in the context of recent model runs and possibly looking a day or two further, the ICON only goes to T180.  UKMO goes only to T144:

image.thumb.jpg.24d2c112afdda33b14c8f1381135af46.jpg

But looks to me like it would give some kind of northwesterly cold snap in next few days.  Any way, let's see what the models that go further have to say, GFS next up.

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we need these bottom line features @/around Greenland  to advect south quickly. ..or even the north-westerly  inflow is @risk..

and flattening will commence! !!!

gfsnh-0-162.png

Edited by tight isobar
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GFS makes a bit of a meal of this, but nothing cold is simple this decade!  But T204 has the cold in and snow chances most places with a potent northwesterly:

image.thumb.jpg.495f45109865a4354b103de86de2a899.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a02624538a9b1aa85c079e3002a9c446.jpg

 

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tbh- can't be kicking these synoptic out of bed....given what we've  had thus far..

 

and a deeper tap  is still very feasible. ..

a noteworthy  nw  inflow! !!

 

with the jet pummeled South

gfs-1-210.png

Edited by tight isobar
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we need to eye any minor  ridges in these set ups..

we can quickly  obtain a more polar blast as the transfers take place. ...as highlights  via gfs 12th. ...it's not all doom and gloom at all tbh. ..

no text book stuff. ..but we have options! !!

gfs-1-234.png

Edited by tight isobar
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last 1 b4  ecm12z. .

my interest is very much spicked  ...

 

a meaty pm  flow looks highly likely. ..and plenty of cold knocking around  us...for minor  dynamical gain! !!

 

keep watching! !!

gfs-1-264.png

gfs-1-234.png

Edited by tight isobar
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I'm struck by how long the northwesterly lasts on this one, GFS 12z T270:

image.thumb.jpg.6d8c41ab52562d907540a0c0b9e98b78.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.72069d7d276a8b78484b90a323e02b20.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2e3e3c375542e6904481b2cdf02a604f.jpg

That low to the far SW seems key to prolonging the NW-SE jet.

Edited by Mike Poole
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12 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

This could be the start of something good::oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Or, it could be the GFS reverting to its default Day-10 climatology?:cold::80:

I doubt it as the Atlantic will simply bring the next weather system in and probably the next after that. The 500 mb anomaly charts also strongly suggest in both the 6-10 day and 10-14 day outlooks at that height for the Atlantic to be, for most of the time, our weather suppllier.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Edited by johnholmes
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16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I doubt it as the Atlantic will simply bring the next weather system in and probably the next after that. The 500 mb anomaly charts also strongly suggest in both the 6-10 day and 10-14 day outlooks at that height for the Atlantic to be, for most of the time, our weather suppllier.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

any incursions  from a northwesterly  flow (Atlantic )will likely  give a fair few close  to what they are craving! !..

with a deeply fridged  Greenland  shelf (source )..

 

as will be highlighted  (I'd bet )..

by both gefs/Eps 500  geos  12z  soon. .

I'll  bung em-up! !

Edited by tight isobar
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GEM 12z another banker, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.e32d1a0a5ab7d7d176abc7c71d543a48.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d2d7c11973b30fbcac291f3f448e149e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a6136796340eb553e147cbe1eb2d4943.jpg

The direction of travel towards a basically northwesterly flow is established, it is just a question of whether the UK can win the lottery of exactly where the amplification upstream directs the jet and lands the cold plunge, many options open still, including the P18 and GEM which seem to land a direct hit.  

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM 12z another banker, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.e32d1a0a5ab7d7d176abc7c71d543a48.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d2d7c11973b30fbcac291f3f448e149e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a6136796340eb553e147cbe1eb2d4943.jpg

The direction of travel towards a basically northwesterly flow is established, it is just a question of whether the UK can win the lottery of exactly where the amplification upstream directs the jet and lands the cold plunge, many options open still, including the P18 and GEM which seem to land a direct hit.  

indeed. 

and as again the 12z  suites  500 geopotentials. ...I reckon will offer up yet more solidity! [email protected]  westerly  flow /flows. 

 

and perhaps  a few more 'real' polar/northerly  shots- to boot! !!

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