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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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I'm not concerned by what the 18z op is showing, and certainly not what the EC46 is showing, which for me is about as useful as the CFS model... Yet again there is a fair amount of ensemble support for some quite potent cold snap/s. And I think tomorrows runs could well build on this... 

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29 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

aye !!??

😕

I assume then that serious cold will be overnight lows of -2c in central England,+3c over Scottish Borders and incrementally higher all points north of said. (as a southwest drift off the Atlantic will be the weather maker in these parts if charts verify)👍

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Just watched the catchup on BBC Wales weather and Derek went, cold weekend warming up again next week, so it's all tits up on here false as a WET fluff in a milk bottle, back down the garden path again, sick of this dross day in day out 😩

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Very little on offer this morning regarding any sign of pressure moving towards the north west.dry and a touch of frost but no sign of anything wintry of note.dry tho is one straw to clutch at I guess 

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So despite a week of ECM "potential" D10 charts we still await that potential! Maybe today's 0z:

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.b4de3e80acf1a0222a05c11761ff0302.gif

Looking at GEM and GFS for the same time, the ECM looks to be on its own:

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.3334893367b0be47f77423c0a0bd2f68.pnggfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.0ac5ccc6a7e1cbccc2806014a5f88eb3.png

Knowing how poor ECM is at that range maybe no surprise. Clearly we have to wait for models to get some coherence for post-D8 before we can write off January, but probabilities suggest, as many of us think, is that February will be the start of winter if it happens? Records suggest the US has its 3rd warmest winter on record (mid-point), and the theory that low solar activity = more blocking is looking dubious. CET of 3.9c above the average at mid-month sums it up.

Anyway the GEFS are all over the place so little point looking into FI, so until advised we should assume tPV the main driver and just hope this current intense WWB does indeed promote a true MJO signal after the lag, before it declines (GFS) in phase 7 (though other models suggest it may enter phase 8 [Australian model]). Other positive background signal and assuming the tPV starts to wind down as expected maybe a late winter still possible. Of course, the experts could be missing something and the rest of the winter may suck as well!

Edited by IDO

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ECM 240 not tragic but certainly not inspirational.

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7 hours ago, MildCarlilse said:

I assume then that serious cold will be overnight lows of -2c in central England,+3c over Scottish Borders and incrementally higher all points north of said. (as a southwest drift off the Atlantic will be the weather maker in these parts if charts verify)👍

Perhaps some fog or frost next week? Haven’t had a pea souper for ages. What happens after the high slides away is of interest re the possible northerly. 

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More cold and frosty runs!!apart from that no snow shown as of yet!!mentioned to tight isobar yesterday that it will only all flatten out!!this mornings gfs shows exactly that!!👌!!ukmo looks a bit better!!

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7 hours ago, MildCarlilse said:

I assume then that serious cold will be overnight lows of -2c in central England,+3c over Scottish Borders and incrementally higher all points north of said. (as a southwest drift off the Atlantic will be the weather maker in these parts if charts verify)👍

Here's the Mets take on the upcoming "cold spell"

 

Screenshot_20200116-154104_Twitter.jpg

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2 hours ago, swfc said:

Very little on offer this morning regarding any sign of pressure moving towards the north west.dry and a touch of frost but no sign of anything wintry of note.dry tho is one straw to clutch at I guess 

Yes very poor models this morning, and some of the US experts seem to think  that the PV/+NAO regime will be cranking up again in February.

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13 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Yes very poor models this morning, and some of the US experts seem to think  that the PV/+NAO regime will be cranking up again in February.

So does the EC46.

Dire ction of travel is +NAO ...

 

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One will have to get used to what we see, Feb has a chance of being even milder for most of the month.  The HP cell/s will continue to be in the wrong place as being shown imo and no signs of any early change unfortunately 

 

BFTP

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Yes, nothing even remotely interesting in the charts if you're of a cold persuasion.

Been a fab winter for melodies and gas bills😂🤣😅

Worst ever for me personally.

Hope we get a fab summer to make up.

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49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So does the EC46.

Dire ction of travel is +NAO ...

 

The worst part of +NAO, is that this would have cold lovers tearing their hair out:  A +NAO, but guess what, heavy snowfall in the northern part of the country.

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Followed by something more dramatic:  No HLB close enough to influence the UK, still zonal with a +NAO, but guess what, cold with widespread snowfall:

image.thumb.png.c5c7ed6778149790685d24039538b75b.png

The fact that this spell of weather that occurred with a +NAO and without HLB close enough to influence the UK must be among the most awful aspects of British Weather, in that +NAO and PVs over Greenland mostly only deliver the dross we have had this month.  It is just sickening that when you look at the above and see that if a +NAO and zonal flow orientates favourably in a polar maritime flow, as opposed to a tropical maritime flow, then the weather in the UK can be much more like winter even without HLB close by.  Having zonality deliver what it has this month when you compare it to what it can deliver if it orientates favourably as above is just as awful seeing a failed easterly.  Why is cold polar maritime zonality so rare these days?  Although I do think we saw a bit of it in Jan 2015 but not on the scale of the above.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast

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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps spreads continue to trend to show the flatter scenarios winning out by next weekend to remove our possible northerly

that’s two suites headed the same way ...... the pendulum has quite a way to swing back now ....... on into feb now .......

Yes - and unfortunately the ECM30 updated today and shows mild anomalies for the next 4 weeks across most of the country. 😶

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Only point of interest will be how high this HP cell will be, can we crank over the record....and we may get some pretty cold nights under clear skies.  Nice to dry out a bit 

 

BFTP

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ECM ensembles not interested in any cold for the next 10 days at least....850s only -4 at their lowest, and pressure rapidly falling between day 8-10. More unsettled, and probably not too cold. I guess while there are a few colder options we shouldn’t totally discount it just yet.

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6z keeping HP over the UK up to 25th now, struggling to back west, although slightly HP over Greenland, but struggling to influence the UK.

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Morning all 🙂

Very downbeat in here this morning - not sure why. I'm still of the view we will have a very late winter and indeed March may turn out more interesting from a winter perspective than February.

The big change for me overnight in the models is whereas yesterday most were showing the HP relaxing SW into the Atlantic, GFS and ECM are now showing the HP easing away south or south east with pressure falling over the Atlantic especially the Azores. 

The European HP isn't well positioned for us for cold in the short term but GFS 00z OP tried to shift it back towards the British Isles. 

The 00Z Control FI wasn't too bad either 

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Morning gang  ,must admit i was expecting a better Ecm run this morning, and currently the gfs run is ticking along on a mild mush path .I am clutching on the fact that the models at the moment are working with a big monster high , possibly 1050 mb ,so hoping after a few days all models will get a better handle on things .I still think we will get a visit from the arctic or poles , Ecm at 240 hrs is still hinting at this .so come on gang  ,feet up ,fry off some sausages, brown sauce, Coffee , welcome the frost with open arms  , and may tonights ECM , reign supreme ,cheers gang .

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Well, not being one of the 'if it ain't snow, it ain't weather' fraternity, I must say that I find the extent of 'warm' uppers (for the time of year?) rather interesting in itself::shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And also, the emergence of >10C uppers, down south, seems a tad early?🤔

 

Having said that, however...What's the harm in a quick Day-16 miniramp?:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster

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24 minutes ago, stodge said:

Morning all 🙂

Very downbeat in here this morning - not sure why. I'm still of the view we will have a very late winter and indeed March may turn out more interesting from a winter perspective than February.

The big change for me overnight in the models is whereas yesterday most were showing the HP relaxing SW into the Atlantic, GFS and ECM are now showing the HP easing away south or south east with pressure falling over the Atlantic especially the Azores. 

The European HP isn't well positioned for us for cold in the short term but GFS 00z OP tried to shift it back towards the British Isles. 

The 00Z Control FI wasn't too bad either 

I'd say downbeat due to the poor models, poor EPS, poor ECM monthly and the comments from various US experts. There are no straws to clutch at as far as I can see.

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