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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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22 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

GEFS ensembles looking very interesting at 9 days onwards.If correct it will have been a long time since the 

mean has been below average let alone the -10 c  showing as well for a period of 5 days or more,fingers 

crossed that they are onto something.

Yes a definite cooling off period even if there is scatter its all cold if that makes sense to a greater or lesser degree 

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39 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

If excitement over transient stuff like this is what it has come to then it's a sad state of affairs!

This winter is a sad state of affairs, so this year, northwesterlies are exciting lol. Last year, northwesterlies were the taster before the slider snow event down here on 31st Jan / 01st Feb.

GFS 12Z goes for two attempts at a northerly which is cut short to a northwesterly. First one on 26th/27th and another on the 30th. It's clear the problem being high pressure not being up to move northwards enough. Such a shame. Still time for change though.

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improvement  continues. ...

scatter /members increasingly  have an eye for colder solution! !!

MT8_London_ens (5).png

Edited by tight isobar

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The gefs ens are colder towards the 26th than the 06z then bounce back to average,or will they?

graphe3_1000_264_28___.thumb.png.6733f5ff4c4a0a80026d9bb56bdd0a4c.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO is better upstream at day 6 compared to the GFS .

A chance the high could escape further nw through that gap between the low over Newfoundland and the one north east of Florida and meet up with the ridge moving out of Canada .

Yes Nick - I think it was an improvement on its 0z output anyway.

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

improvement  continues. ...

scatter /members increasingly  have an eye for colder solution! !!

MT8_London_ens (5).png

Problem is TI these charts have been doing the rounds since late November??? Granted they are there to be viewed but it seems nothing comes from it at all.great posts btw and here's hoping before march something lands and may see a snowflake this winter.imo the PV to the nw has taken residence there and will not relent😒😒

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19 minutes ago, swfc said:

Problem is TI these charts have been doing the rounds since late November??? Granted they are there to be viewed but it seems nothing comes from it at all.great posts btw and here's hoping before march something lands and may see a snowflake this winter.imo the PV to the nw has taken residence there and will not relent😒😒

Oh I don`t know

I`m not as sceptical this will happen as I was a few weeks ago!! get it, get it!!?? 😂

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

They really haven’t for many weeks we have had no eye candy. The potent northerly we may see likely not lasting long doesn’t rely on HLB for wintry conditions, we are at the time of year when it doesn’t take something extraordinary. As we witnessed late Jan last year, shades of that in output. Deep cold trough! 

My real point is hyperventilating  and booming isn't really realistic on a 14day fi chart etc.i get the winter has been rank so far and hopefully things will change .it's not a moan just an observation.unless the PV to the nw weakens I and pressure builds then it will be a MLB or the occasional Nnw with the odd shower .guess it's suck it and see again going forward 

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16 minutes ago, swfc said:

My real point is hyperventilating  and booming isn't really realistic on a 14day fi chart etc.i get the winter has been rank so far and hopefully things will change .it's not a moan just an observation.unless the PV to the nw weakens I and pressure builds then it will be a MLB or the occasional Nnw with the odd shower .guess it's suck it and see again going forward 

That naughty polar vortex is going to be largely displaced to Eurasia in coming days what does that mean? Well mid Atlantic blocking will be under less fire. The strong vortex could assist with cold trough sinking into Europe with unusually cold air to tap into, we will see what happens but I’d say N/NW cold snap likely. How cold? And for how long? Probably not for long. What is clear there is some very cold air available potential for something more than standard.

8A24F504-E2A7-49C2-9283-5A130ECA351A.thumb.gif.bf81395be328e3ee5f875c40d3a31806.gif

Edited by Daniel*

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10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That naughty polar vortex is going to be largely displaced to Eurasia in coming days what does that mean? Well mid Atlantic blocking will be under less fire. The strong vortex could assist with cold trough sinking into Europe with unusually cold air to tap into, we will see what happens but I’d say N/NW cold snap likely. How cold? And for how long? Probably not for long. What is clear there is some very cold air available potential for something more than standard.

8A24F504-E2A7-49C2-9283-5A130ECA351A.thumb.gif.bf81395be328e3ee5f875c40d3a31806.gif

Possibly yes altho all subject to change .I guess a cold snap is inevitable over a three month period during winter.problem is this winter a cold snap seems to be basically a period of frosty weather.all will be revealed given non of us know going forward what will transpire 

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@going against  the grain...I'm choosing  atm  to ignore composites /mjo-structure. .

and again looking  for escalating  rises in-around  Scandinavian  quad. .

but we will need to see rapid rates...as the vortex looks to home from the sobering sectors. ...if we get the the prizes are endless. ..if not into February. ...for-any golden tickets. ..

ECH1-168.gif

ECM1-168.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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lol...and with that  the ecm begins a prime outlet via Atlantic  cell. ..and Greenland  looks  amicable. ..

@unreal

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This is a lot better from the ECM, HP shifted nicely out of the way west, game on surely?:oldrolleyes:

 

ECH1-192.png

ECH0-192.png

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WHOAH!!!

steady on ECM

ECH1-216.thumb.gif.7d73d1c1aebf95572e29c5d43ba1173c.gif

a tonking stonker coming up me thinks.

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Cold and frosty ecm all the way and looks like a northerly is about to sweep down at 240 hours!!

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Certainly at this range there is still a good chance of some very cold weather before January is out with plenty of time for upgrades as far as a northerly is concerned.  Also with the Polar vortex heading for Scandinavia we could yet end up with prolonged very cold weather too.

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Would love to see day eleven but this is ok.

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.8efa10527e6427dd611c2bc5467f2396.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.c9dc3c16898ef545d0df81fb074082f7.gif

pressure building in behind it.

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First snow fall of this boring winter so far if ECM t240 comes off 

Booooooom !!!😨

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