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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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wait for it here comes a cold surge from the north core heights out west.

gfs-1-120.thumb.png.11c268aab32b791517659cc334ee01f5.png

and ukmo is close to a northern arctic plunge very close.

UW144-21.thumb.gif.466e37278b3728029e63c29252649d46.gif

but this most certainly depends how out west we can get heights and a northwesterly would also be cold especially up north and west but not exclusively.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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Just now, MR EXTREMES said:

wait for it here comes a cold surge from the north core heights out west.

gfs-1-120.thumb.png.11c268aab32b791517659cc334ee01f5.png

Ukmo at t144 is trying to send the high north.

EF25844A-DA5A-4946-A796-FE3B271C56C5.png

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Once again it's hats off to the ECM and UKMO, LP ends up over southern Spain after all, GFS kept showing the main low around the bay of Genoa and northern Italy, wrong again GFS by about 1,000km!😡

Can GFS be trusted out at D8/9, obviously not, stick with ECM and UKMO and you wont go far wrong.

gfs-0-48.png

gfs-0-72.png

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10 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

wait for it here comes a cold surge from the north core heights out west.

gfs-1-120.thumb.png.11c268aab32b791517659cc334ee01f5.png

and ukmo is close to a northern arctic plunge very close.

UW144-21.thumb.gif.466e37278b3728029e63c29252649d46.gif

but this most certainly depends how out west we can get heights and a northwesterly would also be cold especially up north and west but not exclusively.

Only a flesh-wound this time --- it's just a softening-up exercise!🤠

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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14 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ukmo at t144 is trying to send the high north.

EF25844A-DA5A-4946-A796-FE3B271C56C5.png

A possibility, the GFS 12z already better upstream, with the Atlantic trough under attack from highs left and right, maybe a gateway to height rises and the trough to drop nearer the UK?

06z:gfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.d7f9384a20756c2eab9a66b1481b77be.png 12z:gfsnh-0-198.thumb.png.502c49dfa28fa3d310dee86fbb7d42ec.png

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to be honest this is the best looking charts for going forwards towards cold,

all season of coarse could be a phantom run,or

garden path extravaganza, but its not the worst.

seeing more colder charts over the last few days it looks like we are building momentum, but also the possibility ending up with a straight westerly.

but the jet stream arcing over the uk then plunging down through scandinavia but then recurving further south in the central med, with this creating a pocket of low pressure around the central med.

how long will heights hang around out west well its pressure reading are not really weak.

gfs-0-180.thumb.png.6d7f541d4948f8b223ff5b5ad49231c0.pnggfs-5-180.thumb.png.918e4d3034f1e0431c59a9af44e02e51.png

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11 minutes ago, IDO said:

A possibility, the GFS 12z already better upstream, with the Atlantic trough under attack from highs left and right, maybe a gateway to height rises and the trough to drop nearer the UK?

06z:gfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.d7f9384a20756c2eab9a66b1481b77be.png 12z:gfsnh-0-198.thumb.png.502c49dfa28fa3d310dee86fbb7d42ec.png

It is intriguing. Keep telling myself, hang on look at the t plus but it’s a decent watch if nothing else👍 should of added that I prefer ukmo at t144 over gfs at the same time.

E8C05FFA-6E03-49F7-BA8D-B6648F36CDA7.png

Edited by That ECM

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well gfs at least remain consistant  of sorts. ..with height  placement...and north/northwesterly  inflows. ..

and is of continuous  format with its ensembles! !!

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take ya pick anywhere north of cornwall would see something wintry.

massive swathe of deep cold along the north.

northwesterly pack a punch this year.

gfs-1-234.thumb.png.c1a8346bf7200827b9026d333669bc6a.png

they did a little back in 2014 which northern areas benefited from cold westerlies and cold northwesterlies.

gfs-1-258.thumb.png.fd401f6f0fad58d01d33e3c0d35352c7.png

now thats a cold northwesterly.

even cornwall can build a snowman instead of a sand castle lol.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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8 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

take ya pick anywhere north of cornwall would see something wintry.

massive swathe of deep cold along the north.

northwesterly pack a punch this year.

gfs-1-234.thumb.png.c1a8346bf7200827b9026d333669bc6a.png

they did a little back in 2014 which northern areas benefited from cold westerlies and cold northwesterlies.

gfs-1-258.thumb.png.fd401f6f0fad58d01d33e3c0d35352c7.png

now thats a cold northwesterly.

even cornwall can build a snowman instead of a sand castle lol.

If excitement over transient stuff like this is what it has come to then it's a sad state of affairs!

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2 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

If excitement over transient stuff like this is what it has come to then it's a sad state of affairs!

Welcome to UK winters ! 

At this point given the winter so far even a transient two day cold plunge with some snow would be welcome to coldies in here .

Anyway back to the models . Three GFS runs today all with different upstream patterns by day ten ! 

I think what’s complicating matters is the high can’t really escape nw until these shortwaves running over the top clear se .

 

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41 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

That's reassuring seeing as he has been absolutely hopeless since that fluke in 2013

Purely as an observer; during the past few years.....

internet weather 'hero worship' has seemingly become a growth industry. JC was always being touted as some kind of weather 'god'. Plenty of other global weather gurus touting themselves on twatter; often quoted in model tweets thread. A little bit of due diligence wouldnt go amiss😀

Edited by Bristle boy

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6 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

If excitement over transient stuff like this is what it has come to then it's a sad state of affairs!

Transient is better than non existent or maybe some would prefer a completely snowless winter 

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4 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

If excitement over transient stuff like this is what it has come to then it's a sad state of affairs!

I'd agree to a degree nothing to get excited about on today's output.guess it depends on how high you set the bar.i don't this winter I just stand at one 😒

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Actually quite surprised, it's an improvement again... 

gfsnh-1-252.png

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6 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

If excitement over transient stuff like this is what it has come to then it's a sad state of affairs!

Not sure what Worcester has been like but sad state of affairs sums up winter so far, so a cold northerly is of interest to some👍

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2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Not sure what Worcester has been like but sad state of affairs sums up winter so far, so a cold northerly is of interest to some👍

Exactly, even if it's only fleeting. 👍

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5 hours ago, swfc said:

Yep.bit of a Stealers wheel job,cold to the left of me cold to the right here we are!!!😒😒

Latest run keeps under potential cold rather than missing out in FI

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GEFS ensembles looking very interesting at 9 days onwards.If correct it will have been a long time since the 

mean has been below average let alone the -10 c  showing as well for a period of 5 days or more,fingers 

crossed that they are onto something.

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it's quite laughable  the utter obsession  with Greenland heights  formats...when the placement  of the high  cell is still VERY undecided. ..

and any vertical  sway will  take the hp  on a-north/NE  trip. ..and have a quicker root to cold...and a deeper 1 at that. ..this is honestly  a great position to be in going forwards. ..in any winter. ..let alone the crap  we've  entailed  thus far! !!

 

edit;  and far less material  (in balance ) for the solution  than the energetic  Greenland  sheet!!!

gfs-1-342.png

Edited by tight isobar

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At last something half decent on the models  of course no 2010  but it would bring something wintry to some parts   how I've missed looking for the white hatching  on the uk profile 

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

it's quite laughable  the utter obsession  with Greenland heights  formats...when the placement  of the high  cell is still VERY undecided. ..

and any vertical  sway will  take the hp  on a-north/NE  trip. ..and have a quicker root to cold...and a deeper 1 at that. ..this is honestly  a great position to be in going forwards. ..in any winter. ..let alone the crap  we've  entailed  thus far! !!

 

edit;  and far less material  (in balance ) for the solution  than the energetic  Greenland  sheet!!!

gfs-1-342.png

Absolutely agree given what we've had so far this winter. 

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