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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Could well be some thundersnow .

Warmish sea , the source of the air and depth of cold should see some very lively snow showers .

Great fun ! 

No question about it thunder snow looks very likely if that came off especially around the coasts! Bring it on just need to hope the GEFS supports the idea!

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

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Well, last one from me tonight before drifting off (pun intended) into snow filled dreams.  Whilst of course caution needs to be exercised in huge doses, the evolution of how the northerly transpires looks very plausible to me, we just need to see what the 0z's produce.

Back behind the sofa time in the morning.

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Desperation makes a two day northerly seem like a ‘47 redux! 
 

clusters show this pub run evolution has about as much chance as anything else in the day 9/11 day period 

lets look for some consistency tomorrow 

Hahaha ?. It’s been hard times since the 2018 beast and we’re all desperate for Cold and snow . ?

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17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Desperation makes a two day northerly seem like a ‘47 redux! 
 

clusters show this pub run evolution has about as much chance as anything else in the day 9/11 day period 

lets look for some consistency tomorrow 

True - and the graph actually looks a bit like a downgrade rather than upgrade.

image.thumb.png.27c1af6dc86b213c5b744eda1ee2147f.png

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21 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Far too early yet of course but what is interesting here is that some Ops and Controls are starting to get excited, not just a few random GEFS members.

Definitely time to sit up and take notice folks, as this is actually a very feasible outcome (note... ‘feasible’ though, not necessarily ‘likely’ ?)

Should something close to this transpire, there would be some very unstable airmass around.

 

18z control showing the northerly as well, not such a prolonged cold spell but nice to see it supporting the op so its not likely to be an outlier.

gens-0-1-216.png

gens-0-0-216.png

Edited by snowray
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1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

GEFS look decent. For a laugh, how about this one... ?

3EA93267-DF92-4831-AFF0-193ADF0F6687.thumb.png.0e6438331c768d95146c843e26f22b77.png

coldest one for here was this at a tasty -14.3 850hpa (obviously at the more extreme end of the scale) gens-16-1-252.thumb.png.96daf5c6621a58e5c449613ff7e5b26d.png things ticking along nicely ?

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largescale support for a cold blast...and well within its run. 

with mean/members in full support  of the op. .

MT8_London_ens (3).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Just noticed 5 minutes ago, netweather had crashed, only briefly, but must be the 1st time for 2 years... Somethings a brewing!! Worth signing of with some ens from the 18z...plenty of support for some serious fireworks down the line. Be careful not to bite to much of a chunk out of your sofa in the morning come the early runs... ?

gens-0-1-216.png

gens-0-0-216.png

gens-1-0-240.png

gens-3-0-216.png

gens-4-0-348.png

gens-7-0-264.png

gens-7-1-252.png

gens-9-0-276.png

gens-9-1-264.png

gens-12-0-240.png

gens-12-1-228.png

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6 minutes ago, Purga said:

Decent support for the northerly ?

image.thumb.png.abea7f1f7c7ccedb69c6b8cb5ca81b9b.png

Ahh  just beat me TI ! ?

I beat both of you over a quarter of an hour ago, come on keep up?...Right, who's staying up for the 00z runs????

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5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just noticed 5 minutes ago, netweather had crashed, only briefly, but must be the 1st time for 2 years... Somethings a brewing!! Worth signing of with some ens from the 18z...plenty of support for some serious fireworks down the line. Be careful not to bite to much of a chunk out of your sofa in the morning come the early runs... ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gens-12-1-228.png

I like the look of that last one with the low sinking south instead of east and HP staying out in the Atlantic, nice cold NEly there, could we get a reload I wonder??

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