Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Could well be some thundersnow .

Warmish sea , the source of the air and depth of cold should see some very lively snow showers .

Great fun ! 

No question about it thunder snow looks very likely if that came off especially around the coasts! Bring it on just need to hope the GEFS supports the idea!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, last one from me tonight before drifting off (pun intended) into snow filled dreams.  Whilst of course caution needs to be exercised in huge doses, the evolution of how the northerly transpires looks very plausible to me, we just need to see what the 0z's produce.

Back behind the sofa time in the morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok freaks GFS18z shows up a festival - 7/8 days to go and see the ideas of the charts image.thumb.png.02696034cd9b9c7a706ae866cd925c46.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems like years to even see a run like this let alone the weather itself . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Desperation makes a two day northerly seem like a ‘47 redux! 
 

clusters show this pub run evolution has about as much chance as anything else in the day 9/11 day period 

lets look for some consistency tomorrow 

Hahaha 😂. It’s been hard times since the 2018 beast and we’re all desperate for Cold and snow . 🥶

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Desperation makes a two day northerly seem like a ‘47 redux! 
 

clusters show this pub run evolution has about as much chance as anything else in the day 9/11 day period 

lets look for some consistency tomorrow 

True - and the graph actually looks a bit like a downgrade rather than upgrade.

image.thumb.png.27c1af6dc86b213c5b744eda1ee2147f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another upgrade on the GEFS though - they will look more favourable than the 12z when the graph comes out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Far too early yet of course but what is interesting here is that some Ops and Controls are starting to get excited, not just a few random GEFS members.

Definitely time to sit up and take notice folks, as this is actually a very feasible outcome (note... ‘feasible’ though, not necessarily ‘likely’ 😬)

Should something close to this transpire, there would be some very unstable airmass around.

 

18z control showing the northerly as well, not such a prolonged cold spell but nice to see it supporting the op so its not likely to be an outlier.

gens-0-1-216.png

gens-0-0-216.png

Edited by snowray

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Confirmed, 18z not an outlier by any means! :yahoo:

 

graphe_ens3.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I assume  my post via 18th ens has been removed! !!??

 

 

@baffled

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

GEFS look decent. For a laugh, how about this one... 😲

3EA93267-DF92-4831-AFF0-193ADF0F6687.thumb.png.0e6438331c768d95146c843e26f22b77.png

coldest one for here was this at a tasty -14.3 850hpa (obviously at the more extreme end of the scale) gens-16-1-252.thumb.png.96daf5c6621a58e5c449613ff7e5b26d.png things ticking along nicely 🤞

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

largescale support for a cold blast...and well within its run. 

with mean/members in full support  of the op. .

MT8_London_ens (3).png

Edited by tight isobar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Decent support for the northerly 😃

image.thumb.png.abea7f1f7c7ccedb69c6b8cb5ca81b9b.png

Ahh  just beat me TI ! 😁

Edited by Purga

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just noticed 5 minutes ago, netweather had crashed, only briefly, but must be the 1st time for 2 years... Somethings a brewing!! Worth signing of with some ens from the 18z...plenty of support for some serious fireworks down the line. Be careful not to bite to much of a chunk out of your sofa in the morning come the early runs... 🤣

gens-0-1-216.png

gens-0-0-216.png

gens-1-0-240.png

gens-3-0-216.png

gens-4-0-348.png

gens-7-0-264.png

gens-7-1-252.png

gens-9-0-276.png

gens-9-1-264.png

gens-12-0-240.png

gens-12-1-228.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Purga said:

Decent support for the northerly 😃

image.thumb.png.abea7f1f7c7ccedb69c6b8cb5ca81b9b.png

Ahh  just beat me TI ! 😁

I beat both of you over a quarter of an hour ago, come on keep up🤣...Right, who's staying up for the 00z runs???🤣

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just noticed 5 minutes ago, netweather had crashed, only briefly, but must be the 1st time for 2 years... Somethings a brewing!! Worth signing of with some ens from the 18z...plenty of support for some serious fireworks down the line. Be careful not to bite to much of a chunk out of your sofa in the morning come the early runs... 🤣

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gens-12-1-228.png

I like the look of that last one with the low sinking south instead of east and HP staying out in the Atlantic, nice cold NEly there, could we get a reload I wonder?🤩

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...