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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A bit better with some continental SE flows at times.

 

image.png

I would say very slightly less poor.  Then again, maybe I'm just glass half empty!

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8 minutes ago, Don said:

I would say very slightly less poor.  Then again, maybe I'm just glass half empty!

It’s got Euro high stamped all over it.  Could be a very pleasant Spring.  Something to look forward to!

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10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It’s got Euro high stamped all over it.  Could be a very pleasant Spring.  Something to look forward to!

Not exactly looking good for a spring cold spell that, but yes good news for those seeking warmth!

Edited by Don

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Cold and frosty gfs 18z from 72 to 180 hours so far!!!i take that!!but the snow is still far away if it ever comes!!

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Not a bad looking day 10 ECM ens. going forward with cold piling up to the NE.

 

At least russian winter coldies should be happier.🌨️

EDH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.ba8d523258edfc7adab799114bbce60a.png

 

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Lets us hope that the lag affect into the mjo phases 7>8 have lag effect on the models because it's looking pretty poor IMO 

now let me re-phrase that:-

there is a lag effect of 10-12 days on the mjo so the models will not pick up on this yet

hold tight peeps. 

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3 hours ago, Don said:

I would say very slightly less poor.  Then again, maybe I'm just glass half empty!

April could be quite warm with that pattern. 2007ish. 

image.thumb.png.1fb203491e7975e121923595a2119b8c.png

We seem to be mirroring 2006/2007 quite closely at present and I'm having suspicions we could be looking at a very troughy and convective solar min summer. Here's hoping!

If you run the 'pressure' through from the first time frame (months 2-4) to the last (4-6) you will see the boundary between the +ve height anomalies and the -ve height anomalies push S when they should really be doing the opposite as we approach summer- which says to me that the GLOSEA concurs. I would wager that next update we see +ve height anomalies in the N Atlantic for May, June, July.

Edited by CreweCold

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7 hours ago, Beanz said:

ECM looking great for something more seasonal, game on 

 game on for what? if few days of frosty weather is your thing then yes indeed game on ☺️

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Nice to see any model showing the chance of snow on low ground, soon, if its not too much to ask! 

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1 hour ago, syed2878 said:

 game on for what? if few days of frosty weather is your thing then yes indeed game on ☺️

After the dreck we've had so far a few days of frosty weather is better than nothing.

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58 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Nice to see any model showing the chance of snow on low ground, soon, if its not too much to ask! 

Best i can do is a 384 that MIGHT GO ON to show snow  on low ground as opposed to one that actually does in the reliable timeframe im afraid.

image.thumb.png.02038175b2e28ba0c3fa219c0f8a7746.png

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Surely Ecm is lining up a very potent northerly for months end?? ....two other possitives, winter returns for scandinavia, and going by the upper air temps on the second chart, itll be some time before we have to hear about ice melt over Greenland....uppers off the scale!

Ecm, day 10

 

ECMOPEU00_240_1-7.png

GFSOPEU00_288_2.png

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8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Lets us hope that the lag affect into the mjo phases 7>8 have lag effect on the models because it's looking pretty poor IMO 

now let me re-phrase that:-

there is a lag effect of 10-12 days on the mjo so the models will not pick up on this yet

hold tight peeps. 

Hi. I posted yesterday that the experts believe that the MJO signal does not really exist, it is a WWB that the algorithms have mistaken for an MJO signal. There is no upper air change that corresponds with the expected MJO signal showing. That is the reason, they say, that we are not seeing it in the models, it is a ghost in the machine!

So really just looking for the tPV to relent and maybe we could see within the ebb and flow of normal machinations some cold air filter our way. No forcing expected this month to get blocking and a more sustained wintry picture. It looks zonal for the rest of the month and probably early February due to the intense tPV circling to our north. The GEFS are awful and the mean at D16 highlights this:

gens-21-1-384.thumb.png.97b399e9592150866958825069a23d92.png

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4 hours ago, syed2878 said:

 game on for what? if few days of frosty weather is your thing then yes indeed game on ☺️

For some winter weather! 👍🏻

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5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Hi. I posted yesterday that the experts believe that the MJO signal does not really exist, it is a WWB that the algorithms have mistaken for an MJO signal. There is no upper air change that corresponds with the expected MJO signal showing. That is the reason, they say, that we are not seeing it in the models, it is a ghost in the machine!

So really just looking for the tPV to relent and maybe we could see within the ebb and flow of normal machinations some cold air filter our way. No forcing expected this month to get blocking and a more sustained wintry picture. It looks zonal for the rest of the month and probably early February due to the intense tPV circling to our north. The GEFS are awful and the mean at D16 highlights this:

gens-21-1-384.thumb.png.97b399e9592150866958825069a23d92.png

Some experts say that, some don't.  

If the MJO signal is false then it would make you wonder what's the point of the RMM plots.

I'm not expecting any proper high latitude block  but a potent North or North Westerly is probable towards month end.

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16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Some experts say that, some don't.  

If the MJO signal is false then it would make you wonder what's the point of the RMM plots.

I'm not expecting any proper high latitude block  but a potent North or North Westerly is probable towards month end.

Happened last winter, in fact the MJO signal was muted most of the time. 

Anyway, until we see even a vague hint of what we should be expecting we cannot rely on the MJO to save January.

The D10 means suggest zonal with a tPV still at its peak and no early sign of any blocking:

1497893_gensnh-21-1-240(6).thumb.png.887dcc250bf849d09aeb238111b7b20d.png322876221_EDH1-240(5).thumb.gif.47527c85a5e16092a22eff1fb60a2ae4.gif

Subtle variations on a theme but both in the same ball park and from previous experience predicting this setup verifies well. The GFS flatter so maybe closer to the ECM mean? Either way looking at the uppers, really nothing to think a change is afoot:

gensnh-21-0-240.thumb.png.bc7ba90d0c43547e8b190ba3186e7169.png1852592703_EDH0-240(1).thumb.gif.a6a9a49a81bde788abcfd08780502693.gif

 

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1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Surely Ecm is lining up a very potent northerly for months end?? ....two other possitives, winter returns for scandinavia, and going by the upper air temps on the second chart, itll be some time before we have to hear about ice melt over Greenland....uppers off the scale!

Ecm, day 10

 

ECMOPEU00_240_1-7.png

GFSOPEU00_288_2.png

Yes its an excellent ten day chart, and a really potent Northerly would more than likely follow. 

Problem is its a ten day chart 🤔

Let's see it as a day Four chart then we can go BOOM! 

Edited by SLEETY

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

Hi. I posted yesterday that the experts believe that the MJO signal does not really exist, it is a WWB that the algorithms have mistaken for an MJO signal. There is no upper air change that corresponds with the expected MJO signal showing. That is the reason, they say, that we are not seeing it in the models, it is a ghost in the machine!

So really just looking for the tPV to relent and maybe we could see within the ebb and flow of normal machinations some cold air filter our way. No forcing expected this month to get blocking and a more sustained wintry picture. It looks zonal for the rest of the month and probably early February due to the intense tPV circling to our north. The GEFS are awful and the mean at D16 highlights this:

gens-21-1-384.thumb.png.97b399e9592150866958825069a23d92.png

Why do experts believe that the MJO does not exist?  I acknowledge that the MJO has been in phases 4-5 so far this month which is never conducive to a cold pattern in the UK.  From the latest forecasts that I have seen it is expected to reach phase 6 this week and next week make it into phase 7.  With that signal, I would have expected that the chances for something colder for the UK are better than they have been so far this winter.

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17 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Why do experts believe that the MJO does not exist?  I acknowledge that the MJO has been in phases 4-5 so far this month which is never conducive to a cold pattern in the UK.  From the latest forecasts that I have seen it is expected to reach phase 6 this week and next week make it into phase 7.  With that signal, I would have expected that the chances for something colder for the UK are better than they have been so far this winter.

I am no expert, a long way from, but I am assuming that the current forecast westerly wind burst is being modelled by the algorithms as the MJO moving through the phases. When the burst stops then the MJO signal will change, or not if the experts are wrong!


Don’t shoot the messenger, I base my forecast on what I see, and the GEFS currently do not show any forcing in the Pacific or any push of cold to the UK.
 

As for the extended EPS, this week so far they have flipped to cold and back to mild for the US and the experts are not impressed with their EPO index! 

Edited by IDO

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Some conflicting views in the USA over the MJO .

Last nights update from  NOAA suggests even though the decaying IOD might be inflating the strength of the signal that it’s clearly there in terms of the convection showing up on the OLR .

And they expect the MJO to effect the mid latitude regions , this isn’t always the case.

They do expect a pattern change in the USA with colder temps in the east.

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Some potentially very interesting weather coming up, perhaps: not only is a northerly, of sorts looking more likely, but the warmth (a legacy of the IOD perhaps?) is lurking to our south...Potential for some marked contrasts?🤔

T+333: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+384: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

All away in faeryland, I know; but, hey, what isn't!:help:

PS: Where has that nifty wee 'UP' arrow gone!:girl_devil:

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It seems like this potent northerly / north westerly is always at t+384 on the GFS 🤷🏻‍♂️ I must admit I’m starting to loose hope on this winter 😤

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There is some disagreement on ENS modeling between GFS and ECM, preferably going forward I would like to see EPS verifying as it moves towards quite a large Scandinavian through scenario which would correlate with predicted rise of AAM/GWO in to Nino atractor phases 4-8 with higher amplitude than seen so far in winter. Perhaps atmosphere is now coupling with week ENSO modulation. Looking at UKMO weak El Nino temperature impact map it also suggests  cold Scandinavia in Jan/Feb. So EPS anomaly days 9-14 looks like a reasonable scenario. Perhaps also backed up with 30mb strat warming that will push core of Vortex towards Scandinavia and Asian sector rather then dreaded Hudson Bay. Few days ago @Glacier Point pointed out similarities with 2006/07 winter with the shift to -AO in February and similar low frequency MJO signal. If you look at 500mb height anomaly departures between 20.01 and 28.02 of 2007 there was a strong Scandi through present. The million dollar question is how far south and west can the through extend this time around to effect more European regions with cold weather, hopefully it will not reserve all cold for Scandi and Baltic but move towards central and western Europe from time to time.

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