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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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1 minute ago, Dennis said:

GFS18z late Jan image.thumb.png.312ddad196765a4d94e323ebefaf9dd9.png

Direction of travel I feel - heights pulling out into mid Atlantic, shot of cold from north west . 

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Just now, damianslaw said:

Direction of travel I feel - heights pulling out into mid Atlantic, shot of cold from north west . 

this is seen now by the AO (NAM) forecast image.thumb.png.87bc8cbe11362626aeb577493edfe480.png

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It gets nowhere near it. But God bless the GFS pub run  for giving us a hint of 1947 🤣

Rslp19470118.gif   airpressure.png

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EC46 is a big bow it seems ...

I was kind of hoping we would grab lucky with some Atlantic retrogression but the Euros not really supporting the notion this evening...

Plenty of time for changes in the behaviour of the high, hoping for the best but beginning to wonder now TBH..

 

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temp-plots /ens. .

 

both pointing towards  cold air advecting- westwards as we go further ..and just check them  middle plots have both acceleration  and deep cold drafting! !!

 

February  certainly  proping  up for a notable  winter month! 

MT8_London_ens (1).png

temp4 (1).png

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Agreed, winter 13/14 was abnormal and December 2015 was just ridiculous!  However, I wouldn't say this winter has been normal.  December was warmer than average and January so far is running well above average.  Barely seen any frosts either.

Indeed, broadly speaking it's not been unusual in that the weather has come from the Atlantic, but it's been of unusual strength since Christmas and the conditions delivered wouldn't be out of place in November.

I have a feeling that going forward, as long as the area of high pressure at the end of the week doesn't squeeze one last visit to the mainland EU before January 31st, and it slight into the Atlantic, that future such onslaughts will come from a more standard westerly direction if not northwesterly, which would be well timed!

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

No respite for coldies on the latest ec46 .... euro high persists throughout the period post week 2

And if was showing siberian high post week 2 would it verify, just us anything else  at that timescale cannot be guaranteed, so you can't write off our chances of a much colder 2nd half of winter based on that. And remind everyone how ec46 performed last winter, which you failed to mention either. 

Edited by SLEETY

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MJO fail? I am wondering where is the response in modeling to phases 6 or 7? Mean just mirrors what we have in winter so far,blocking almost non existent and restricted to few days under inflated Azores high,then migrates to its default location-Europe

gens-21-1-300.png

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3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That's a  hefty high pressure. 

image.thumb.png.ad5f3990388af4c23630060a180a7f06.png

Do you know when we last had a high pressure of this strength that hung around for a week or more? Feels like years......

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4 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Do you know when we last had a high pressure of this strength that hung around for a week or more? Feels like years......

They rarely last that long that strength. I think mid February 2008, we had about a week of high pressure of 1030mb+, that comes to mind

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56 minutes ago, jules216 said:

MJO fail? I am wondering where is the response in modeling to phases 6 or 7? Mean just mirrors what we have in winter so far,blocking almost non existent and restricted to few days under inflated Azores high,then migrates to its default location-Europe

gens-21-1-300.png

Little sign of MJO influences on this specific run but this is often the case. Pacific forcing doesn’t always engage with the atmospheric flow and often becomes mere noise as it’s overridden by stronger influences.

Juries still out on this one, it could easily yet still turn in our favour as we head through the final third of the month into Feb. Early days yet, with up to a two week lag and it is at a very decent amplitude so we should remain optimistic at least.

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For the last 4 days I have saved the 0z run for the 20th as this was suggesting the high over us, consistency is good. However the pv was shown to be different on each day. The last two screen shots are where ecm had the high going 4 days ago and where it thinks it will go now on the 21st. 

 

I would suggest that it was too keen for the ridge to go nw and move more of the pv east.  

C3CCA99C-6601-4E88-AEDA-089723F03DA0.png

CBC4C200-1EE4-406A-A71E-D2439326005D.png

2C1BB3E8-8381-4545-AAA9-A1325F310F9E.png

C5814A51-984C-47E5-885B-C72FDD430520.png

AF4C9B35-E1C0-4EB4-AE44-CB70EDBF7B3E.png

F56E7910-50E1-462F-9F89-B87DD2B61B0D.png

Edited by That ECM

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Aside from the Northerly n deep FI, the GFS 00z output is somewhat uninspiring this morning. I hope a more knowledgeable  poster can tell me otherwise. 

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we are already beginning  to to classic model differentiation -via placement  of HP. ..

a definitive  sign of promise 'perhaps '...as gain and waine,  play out.

yet with that large lobe encroachment  @siberian/nonorthern eurasian  sectors. ...the feeling  has to be positive. 

the swings north west -to north east speak volumes. ...but a classical  insight  to the big possibilities of possible large scale gain! !!!

 

I'm very much liking this evloving evolution  'personally '...in the hunt for cold! 

Edited by tight isobar

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4 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Aside from the Northerly n deep FI, the GFS 00z output is somewhat uninspiring this morning. I hope a more knowledgeable  poster can tell me otherwise. 

gens_panel_aoc3.png

Not suggesting I’m more knowledgeable in replying to your post but here is my thoughts on day 10. Looking at the various ideas from gfs many support what the ecm is showing. A high to our sw which allows a nw flow for the north. The high just can’t get enough north to allow anything more exciting as the jet is to strong. Now from there onwards all options are on the table and we will have to watch with interest. 

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All depends what happens with the MJO and if it has any effects down the line..

GFS still showing high amplitude phase 7, perhaps going into phase 8:

image.thumb.png.ceff929bba9b0d8d4451873842316562.png

ECM has lower amplitude phase 7 before quickly going back to the COD:

image.thumb.png.0cc51302220539e402f03385871d6aa3.png

Not really surprising to see the ECM OP collapse the high and westerlies of a form returning - the extended has been showing this for days.

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13 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Aside from the Northerly n deep FI, the GFS 00z output is somewhat uninspiring this morning. I hope a more knowledgeable  poster can tell me otherwise. 

The general direction has been well sign posted for a few days now I think.

High pressure near the British Isles from the weekend until around month end followed by a colder North or North Westerly airstream in response to the MJO phase 7.

After that topples, more probable that we return to Westerlies.

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4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

gens_panel_aoc3.png

Not suggesting I’m more knowledgeable in replying to your post but here is my thoughts on day 10. Looking at the various ideas from gfs many support what the ecm is showing. A high to our sw which allows a nw flow for the north. The high just can’t get enough north to allow anything more exciting as the jet is to strong. Now from there onwards all options are on the table and we will have to watch with interest. 

Yes the high not as far north, and perhaps not as much surface cold as hoped for.

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6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The general direction has been well sign posted for a few days now I think.

High pressure near the British Isles from the weekend until around month end followed by a colder North or North Westerly airstream in response to the MJO phase 7.

After that topples, more probable that we return to Westerlies.

brave call pal..

even with mjo-projection.. (as it stands. ..

a brave call! 

Edited by tight isobar

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7 hours ago, SLEETY said:

And if was showing siberian high post week 2 would it verify, just us anything else  at that timescale cannot be guaranteed, so you can't write off our chances of a much colder 2nd half of winter based on that. And remind everyone how ec46 performed last winter, which you failed to mention either. 

It was generally more than reasonable for weeks 3 and 4 .....  more relevant was people’s interpretation (out of desperation) of a slight high anomoly being a massive block ! 

The ec46 picked up the euro low height episode last winter from five/six weeks out .....the fact it was brief and failed to deliver winter wasn’t the models fault!

 

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11 hours ago, carinthian said:

Looks like UKMO extended at 168t similar to ECM chart below. Mild flow into Scotland particularly. Difference in the positioning of the high centre compared to the American models who develop a colder continental flow into Southern Britain at least. Who will be right or will they all get in wrong ?

C

ECMOPEU12_168_2.png

RE: above post. Looks like UKMO yet again comes on top again over the other models in the 144t range. At least this chart below shows some much colder upper air advancing into the Alps , however, not likely at this stage to produce much needed snowfall. We now await for further runs to see if the strong development of high pressure over Southern Britain starts to retrogress, maybe the UKMO extended chart will provide a clue .

UW144-7.gif

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

That's a  hefty high pressure. 

image.thumb.png.ad5f3990388af4c23630060a180a7f06.png

Back in late January 1896

NOAA_1_1896012912_1.png

Late January 1905

NOAA_1_1905012818_1.png

Late January 1932

NOAA_1_1932012618_1.png

Mid January 1957

NOAA_1_1957011618_1.png

Mid January 2000

NOAA_1_2000011600_1.png

image.png

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You know it is a terrible winter when even a cold high downgrades at short notice. Looking at the latest GFS op (supported by the control and a cluster) it brings in more cloud and relative warmth:

graphe6_1000_304_152___.thumb.png.7a80f918f6f0a7d2414e557d81317ad9.png

This is dragging the mean up despite some members still supporting a cold high. The op would lead to relatively mild temps night and day and the current CET of +3.8c above the average will face very minor pressure. So down south, not even a cold high, probably similar to what we have just experienced? Still time for more flip-flops though?

As for after D12, the nascent signs of a Pacific ridge are less so this morning, and those relying on the MJO to rescue the winter should remember last year when we were promised changes that never happened, when the signal was muted by other variables. It may be a case where we are in a period where just pumping out MJO charts as a forecast will not be wise.

A basic analysis of the mean probably gives a clue as to what we are facing for the rest of January. GFS has been pretty consistent with the signal; the tPV moving to Siberia and mostly returning to Canada. That, we know, is a pretty mediocre "big picture":

maen T300>gensnh-21-1-300.thumb.png.0df890f32a20dbe33bbd3cff76dea769.pngmean D16>1365769690_gensnh-21-1-384(18).thumb.png.29e3148e92f20e5238ecd7e2fa43750f.png

So although we cannot rule out transient cold, we are seeing that getting any sustainable blocking in our region with this pattern is pretty much a no-go, a pattern change is definitely needed. ATM it is heading for one of the mildest winters of recent times despite many expecting the contrary!

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