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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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T144, well now that ECM is not following UKMO, what about GEM, here's both ECM first:

image.thumb.jpg.d18a21d9817432762534fe0bb2df6d3b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.00452aaace3a11a16a586c6cc4a4facf.jpg

ECM much more amplified upstream, put the red eyes in and it is a Terminator skull!, so while I'm not sure it will follow the GEM it could certainly produce an interesting evolution from here, let's see.

Edit: hint at retrogression T192, not as clean as GEM, too much vortex left in the way, ECM first 

image.thumb.jpg.f2e215192e1b65b97dc50e067fdcd9d6.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d5f2d4fb163a9f3254b0642eacd27276.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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12z even more amplified interested where this is headed along same lines of 00z? That lobe of vortex is annoying though hard to see something sustained atm but possibly turning much colder from north.

 
205026B8-445D-4892-A5D1-5891CDA0F3A2.thumb.png.6030b3a8b3c2ff0c66efd9dd3b7a44ad.png>18C0C2B1-DDF6-406C-AD64-DEB5A2485A56.thumb.png.c616020c0f007766222dc01b009eb762.png

Edited by Daniel*

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ECM flatter and further east, hence nothing of note. No surprise, this happens 99 times out of 100, of course, could still change back, but people need to be realistic 

ecm day 9 12th jan 2020.png

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2 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

ECM flatter and further east, hence nothing of note. No surprise, this happens 99 times out of 100, of course, could still change back, but people need to be realistic 

ecm day 9 12th jan 2020.png

aye back to square one again could well be back to another Bartlett again what a change from 12h ago disapointing

 

ECH1-216.gif

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EC is OK, it looks cold as we hit next weekend so some frosty nights likely.

Could do with a bit of help from the MJO by day 10 onwards for some Atlantic retrogression.

 

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ECM over amplified in previous runs,now as flat as Aston Villa’s attack was earlier 😆

Miles away from anything cold on this ECM run,clock is ticking on this winter I’m afraid to say.

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A few posts discussing the Bay of Biscay have been moved to the thread below. Model output discussions in this thread please folks. Thank you.

 

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2 minutes ago, igloo said:

aye back to square one again could well be back to another Bartlett again what a change from 12h ago disapointing

 

ECH1-216.gif

We haven't had a Bartlett this Winter.

Personally,  I'm not expecting anything until month end when the MJO should allow us an opportunity for something colder.

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Inspiring ECM this evening by day 10...

 

...for an early Spring

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

ECM over amplified in previous runs,now as flat as Aston Villa’s attack was earlier 😆

Miles away from anything cold on this ECM run,clock is ticking on this winter I’m afraid to say.

I disagree ridge moving up eastern seaboard that may enable another go at retrogression. It is typical how we see amplification and NE USA goes into freezer sending a lot of ‘chaotic energy’ our way.

FA70E4DC-7A19-4A78-8C64-ED6F8BF4EE34.thumb.jpeg.ff713fc2a44c6a6ad8575bc3ebd590ca.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I take it you don’t like tonight’s outputs! 

The UKMO looks best of the big 3 at day 6 , still a lot of disagreement though at days 5 and 6 as to what happens to the west and nw .

Does anyone have the day 7 UKMO . Would be interesting to see whether that builds a strong ridge ne.

Here Nick

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

it comes out around 9pm.

P.S,i don't know why every one is complaining about the output past 144 hrs when there is disagreement before hand.

Edited by Allseasons-si

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11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not sure it is as simple as that, ECM and GEM at T240, ECM first

image.thumb.jpg.0679b16ced61e356d1ed76be86062998.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.241d1e1c92c4ce76014e1bf0837d2fcb.jpg

Both amplified, but by this point various mechanisms have shoved the trop PV to Siberia on GEM, ECM less successfully.  But these are just two outcomes of uncertainty that occurs much earlier in the runs, people need to understand uncertainty!

It is that simple though. People do need to be realistic, the amount of hype on here at times has been laughable! Sure we could end up with a very cold northerly, but little point in getting excited until it is much closer in, our experience tells us the majority of times a big northerly is modelled it is less amplified and further east in reality, fingers are very much  crossed for something but at the moment it is a lower likelihood 👍

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10 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

It is that simple though. People do need to be realistic, the amount of hype on here at times has been laughable! Sure we could end up with a very cold northerly, but little point in getting excited until it is much closer in, our experience tells us the majority of times a big northerly is modelled it is less amplified and further east in reality, fingers are very much  crossed for something but at the moment it is a lower likelihood 👍

Lower likelihood than what? The last few weeks when it has been zero?  My point about uncertainty is that we don't yet know if this increased amplitude that does seem to appear in the models will yield a northerly, an easterly via Scandi high, or merely a UK high, all are still possible.  I'm not betting on the northerly option, although I will discuss it if it is on the model output, my view is that a pattern change is underfoot and the destination is uncertain, as you say fingers crossed!

Edited by Mike Poole

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30 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here Nick

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

it comes out around 9pm.

P.S,i don't know why every one is complaining about the output past 144 hrs when there is disagreement before hand.

Thanks for that . And yes I think until there’s agreement on the earlier timeframe then best to wait and see what’s likely to be on the table . 

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Just taking the outputs to day 6 .

The ECM and UKMO are broadly similar with the upstream pattern . The ECM only has a weak  shortwave ahead of the main low . 

The UKMO develops that into a deeper low .

The GFS has the flattest pattern. The shortwave/low is absorbed into the main low .

Looking at the ECM ensemble pressure spreads . A large divergence over Scandi and also southwest of Greenland . If you add in the 850 spreads then the placement of troughing in those two areas is still quite uncertain .

Edited by nick sussex

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This is where i think we are , next weekend high pressure then the following week which is 8 days away i am totally clueless .looks to me that energy a cold plunge will occur sending arctic air south ,we should know where and direction about Wednesday of this week .i must admit looking at tonights ecm 9 day and 10 day made my blood boil ,so perhaps after a fall we are due for BOOM BOOM  .  Great forum gang , cheers .

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I know it's the day ten mean from the eps but i am quiet liking what i am seeing actually

here is why!

EDH1-240.thumb.gif.4e1e756d78f0c86d3788071ef389f163.gif

main tpv over Siberia-check

lower heights in the Med-check

Possible retrogression of the hp cell(black arrow)

and Possible reload from the N/NW(purple arrow)

the mjo hits the buffers before Phase 8 and heads towards the COD(circle of death)but we have seen this happen over the last few days only to keep it amplified as the days went on.

ensplume_small.thumb.gif.a2c1a894c7babec5afac937b1e0f81a3.gif

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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

We haven't had a Bartlett this Winter.

Personally,  I'm not expecting anything until month end when the MJO should allow us an opportunity for something colder.

I'm here 😁

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