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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

no sign that any greeny high can be sustained 

extended eps clusters vary varied and nothing particularly wintry on offer 

 

Yep - majority are back to westerlies by day 15 as the ridge quickly collapses. Long lasting cold doesn’t look very likely at this range, but if the stars align we might get a 24-48 hour northerly with some snow depending on where the wind lines up. I think most wild take this after the terrible winter so far!

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I see the model with a bias for over amplifying at Day 9/10 is amplified at day 9/10 again.  Hmmmmm

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At D10 on 06z there remains a cluster with better amplification, but it is diminishing and the op has jumped ship today:

gens_panel_aza3.png

At this range still on the table, but seeing the mechanics of how the ECM builds this transient ridge it looks more an algorithmic contrive than something I could have faith in. I think the ECM D10 high amplification charts have been wrong for around 99 times in a row so maybe this is the time! If they had been right 99 times in a row we would have been snowed in & ravaged by another mini-Ice Age.

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I actually think this is more likely the outcome than the ECM day 10 but I hope I'm wrong. A watered down PM Northwesterly is far more likely- great for the mountains and hills out North and West Crap for everywhere else

20200112_113211.jpg

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41 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

no sign that any greeny high can be sustained 

extended eps clusters vary varied and nothing particularly wintry on offer 

 

Maybe the best we can hope for in the medium term is a UK high or a ridge that develops just to the NW.

I think a lot depends on whether the PV does indeed move towards Siberia ( or whether it comes back to Canada with a vengeance after just a short leave of absence )  

I remain in hope of a pattern change ( starting around 20th ) especially with encouraging signs regarding the MJO phases for cold.

Excitement for coldies will only really start if we see some progression of todays ECM 0z 216 chart to the 144 timeframe  ( and then some crucial backing from the UKMO

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For all the talk of GFS 'jumping ship' the 6z looks cold into FI with frosts a plenty and snow opportunities ..

 

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10 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I actually think this is more likely the outcome than the ECM day 10 but I hope I'm wrong. A watered down PM Northwesterly is far more likely- great for the mountains and hills out North and West Crap for everywhere else

20200112_113211.jpg

Probability states it will get watered down in the nearer timescale (if we get anything close to that synpotic as 9/10 days is a long time away) and going by recent northerly shots and there haven't been many in the last few months a passing glimpse with any decent cold going to our east as of your post suggests.

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

For all the talk of GFS 'jumping ship' the 6z looks cold into FI with frosts a plenty and snow opportunities ..

 

Pretty much average for my locale:

graphe6_1000_307_152___.thumb.png.67f502c164a5e23a9338c09a57d96062.png

I think in the next 16-days two ensemble members gets a 2m-temp below 0c. The op uppers in line with the climate norm. 

Maybe further north, as you would expect; colder with snow and frost? Not here ATM, though if HP to dominate we may lose the cloud at times for colder nights, but lately the highs have been cloudy so milder evenings hence the extraordinary CET anomaly.

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9 minutes ago, IDO said:

Pretty much average for my locale:

graphe6_1000_307_152___.thumb.png.67f502c164a5e23a9338c09a57d96062.png

I think in the next 16-days two ensemble members gets a 2m-temp below 0c. The op uppers in line with the climate norm. 

Maybe further north, as you would expect; colder with snow and frost? Not here ATM, though if HP to dominate we may lose the cloud at times for colder nights, but lately the highs have been cloudy so milder evenings hence the extraordinary CET anomaly.

Yes it looks colder the further north one heads into FI-

I don't think for one minute we are heading for a sustained freeze and high lat blocking but there looks to be more scope for something more seasonal from where i am sitting.

Certainly a different perspective north to south though with little prospect of snow across the South in general.

6Z kind of ties in with recent Exeter updates with mention of hill snow in the north perhaps down to low levels at times.

Edited by northwestsnow

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spacer.png

UKMO 0z @t144 shows the beginnings of PV separation perhaps. ( and certainly a migration of the main lobe towards Siberia )

One to watch as we head to the 12z s later on i suspect.

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6z ensembles don’t really support any cold at the moment...mean sticking at 0 until the end of run. Let’s hope it’s one of those that develops as we get closer.

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ECM positive at day 9 but progresses a common garden toppler on day 10

ECM1-240.GIF?12-12

Be interesting to see to what extent we can get to something colder and more sustainable over a period of a few days rather than just 24 hours and a good frost. 

 

Trend is much better though than a few days a go.

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On 04/01/2020 at 15:26, SqueakheartLW said:

Well I just say bin this winter and roll on 2020/2021. At least it should be the one just after solar minimum with EQBO as well. So far Gavs winter forecast isn't going very well.

Gav went for a slightly colder than average December - Actually ended up around 1C above average

Gav said January would probably be mildest month of the winter but around average - So far not looking good

Gav said February would be coldest month - We shall see

In order to get to his prediction of a slightly colder than average winter overall we are going to need some brutal cold in February or it will end a long way out

Improving trends compared to a week ago but I would say that the 06z run is a step back and inching towards a less cold outcome than the 00z.

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1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

GEFS not relenting. This is a pattern changer, for good or bad ( let’s face it, it’s unlikely to be worse!)

D14DD0A9-BF74-4FA6-9705-AAEB975D8F47.thumb.gif.2ec355426c8fa33271b90f22fe8e23b0.gif

Greenland ridge very plausible, possibly even very likely. Interesting last third firming up...

Fascinating, lots of talk yesterday of it falling short. Interesting times. 

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Another thing about the 12Z UKMO is that it looks almost identical to the 00Z ECMWF at 120 hours. Especially with those tightly coiled up Lows in the mid and Western Atlantic:

12Z UKMO 
0C4C1653-DC80-4732-BCF5-54C0BDBFEF70.thumb.png.3fdf21023b9ebfe52a1ae058e12800de.png
 

00Z ECMWF

22E0B22B-6C6C-48A0-8365-A555DA060A53.thumb.png.9117ccd2b8ead73e171cdc60e27e1eb7.png
The Low is a little deeper to the North of the UK on the ECMWF and the 500mb heights towards the Western Greenland area are a bit lower too. Otherwise rather similar. Is possible since they’re similar, and the fact that the UKMO is more amplified than its earlier run (as covered by Mike above), it may eventually lead to a Northerly setup like the 00Z ECMWF. Hard to be sure since seeing UKMO charts past the 144/168 hours mark is not possible. Interesting nonetheless anyway.

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This may change later in the run, but for comparison with the earlier runs that don't go out very far, GFS is less amplified and at the 'UK high' end of that envelope of op run possibilities that I mentioned earlier, T192:

image.thumb.jpg.00ab004b7bcaf3950d1d476f72b376c5.jpg

Interesting where the cold air is, and even more interesting that it looks like a moose with a big head over Siberia:

image.thumb.jpg.539699e1470b3f101a92c1385302521f.jpg

GFS T204.  Theres something to tap into from the Arctic if we get a break!  If...

 

Edited by Mike Poole

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8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This may change later in the run, but for comparison with the earlier runs that don't go out very far, GFS is less amplified and at the 'UK high' end of that envelope of op run possibilities that I mentioned earlier, T192:

image.thumb.jpg.00ab004b7bcaf3950d1d476f72b376c5.jpg

You're probably right but I just had an optimistic feeling it might go on to show a bit of an Easterly for part of the country as the heights around Italy lower in fi but we will see

gfs-0-216.png

Edited by Kentspur

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GFS has no interest whatsoever with the ECM-trough dropping and transient Greenland ridge:

gfseu-0-204.thumb.png.1bfd64c3311759bd7f9b74b230c23359.pngECE1-216.thumb.gif.46200d8630df92fd604e7be282051bc3.gif

So GFS wanting dry average temps for 4-6 days. The 06z suggests no real interest in FI so we will see if the 12z changes anything?

Over to ECM. As for a D6 UKMO chart, my thoughts on them mean that another 24h is needed before it can be taken seriously especially as it looks quite odd!

Edited by IDO

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