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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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all  i say is i got one eye is i got one eye on what could be coming our way  tuesday  wednesday  which do not look very nice to say the least,

and the other eye to see what brewimg up  in la  la   land  at  from jan  25  if the gfs  is right !!! someparts  might have to find  the snow  spades  from the  the shed!!

gfs-2-42.png

gfs-2-348.png

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

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@Blessed Weather always a good sign to get rid of Euro High and replace it with a through. The high pressure then has at least a shot of staying somewhere north and not lock us it to weeks of zonal train, so we keep the gun loaded 

anim_mjg1 (1).gif

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So the models are moving into line re the D10 possible mini-ridge after some erratic output. As per usual the D10 ECM is the most amplified and we know it verifies badly in such instances. GEM is the middle ground and GFS has now pretty much ended with a UK high:

2112643430_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.706e6c9ca05609b1737a80c94d6e965e.gif1235277303_gemnh-0-240(1).thumb.png.22d4e8a44a562911cf9d3db199f1de02.pnggfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.3cc77a5cea8611dc1381b7087dcb010a.png

It is a topple on all and any cold uppers are associated with the high so no snow. The GEFS mean suggests maybe the GEM will be the closest and the GFS op too flat:

270792187_gensnh-21-1-240(3).thumb.png.01488e274d4f9cfafea416a3f4108fd6.png

The tPV completed its journey to Siberia (D10) and in FI on the GEFS mean it begins its return to NE Canada, at varying rates; D16 mean: 1833107883_gensnh-21-1-384(2).thumb.png.979f06b78153266aa07cafd0e3a6512a.png 

That is clearly a generalisation with the specifics much harder to distinguish. Though again no sign of any tropical forcing apart from some noise. FWIW the GFS op gives us another topple (repeating pattern) in late FI. Maybe uppers closer to climate D10+ so January's current CET of +3.7C above average will be lowered. Hopefully as we end January the tPV will loosen its grip and we get some help from the background signals.

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1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Anyone know why the ECM 0z ensembles aren't showing up on Meteociel?

D10: 1003649300_EDH1-240(2).thumb.gif.38be7bc04ca48b954fdbfe532bf4c0be.gif

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10 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Anyone know why the ECM 0z ensembles aren't showing up on Meteociel?

Indeed. The debilt ones certainly haven't updated yet for some reason. Typical. 

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Finally updated. Although the ECM 0z op run looks an Outlier at the end let's hope its leading the way

graphe0_00_0_0_-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.gif.png

Edited by Kentspur
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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed. The debilt ones certainly haven't updated yet for some reason. Typical. 

No need to faff around with Dutch ensembles - the UK ones have updated just fine.

ensemble-euro.png
WEATHER.US

London, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct...

 

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3 minutes ago, Retron said:

No need to faff around with Dutch ensembles - the UK ones have updated just fine.

ensemble-euro.png
WEATHER.US

London, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct...

 

Many thanks for that. 

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We certainly can't trust the ecm ops at days 9 and 10 with regards to amplification. If more and more gfs ops back it up then we can become more confident. Unfortunately the gfs 00z op backed away from it at days 9 to 10.

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25 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We certainly can't trust the ecm ops at days 9 and 10 with regards to amplification. If more and more gfs ops back it up then we can become more confident. Unfortunately the gfs 00z op backed away from it at days 9 to 10.

Trough digging down across NE/central Europe and Atlantic ridge building north by day 10 got support from 00z GEFS mean though

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.3b05e179937084b900b7b098eab61eae.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fa78b480f038b5716c73a620b69bd238.png

And reasonable support from members in the stamps, though variations between NWly and Nly.

stamps.thumb.png.d18030edb8592806b90112d841b0759b.png

Edited by Nick F
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6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Trough digging down across NE/central Europe and Atlantic ridge building north by day 10 got support from 00z GEFS mean though

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.3b05e179937084b900b7b098eab61eae.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fa78b480f038b5716c73a620b69bd238.png

And reasonable support from members in the stamps, though variations between NWly and Nly.

stamps.thumb.png.d18030edb8592806b90112d841b0759b.png

Indeed. There is some level of support. Toppler looks like the form horse at the moment but there is time for this one to upgrade somewhat. Getting to that stage in the next day or two when we we need to see gfs and ecm ops consolidate on that amplification at day 9. 

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spacer.pngECM 0z @t240 yesterday

spacer.pngECM 0z @216 today

ECM has progressed nicely over the last 24 hrs. The big question is what will the 192 chart look like tomorrow morning ?

Are we heading for a proper Greenland block ( or just a ridge that will collapse  ? )

 

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15 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Trough digging down across NE/E Europe and Atlantic ridge building north by day 10 got support from 00z GEFS mean though

gfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fa78b480f038b5716c73a620b69bd238.png

And reasonable support from members in the stamps, though variations between NWly and Nly.

 

Difficult to analyse that chart but the GEFS mean at D10 followed by the ECM mean...

gens-21-6-240.thumb.png.dc876d033113b73e878edebeed5d6cc1.pngEDM100-240.thumb.gif.577a69e3fea8bba8434331e52bf99125.gif

...do not really back up the ECM op at D10...

ECM100-240.thumb.gif.9ca2f75f0d1c486a264e546789a444c9.gif

...with respect to upper air depth of cold. It would appear the ECM op is at the extreme end of cold possibilities. Few of us are arguing that as the mini-ridge topples, colder air will filter south close to the UK, but fleeting and variation of potency. Certainly the ECM mean does not support the op for those uppers, not even close, ditto GEFS mean. All subject to change, though D10 ECM op charts should never be banked when heights are involved.

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Just now, Jeremy Shockey said:

 

ECM has progressed nicely over the last 24 hrs. The big question is what will the 192 chart look like tomorrow morning ?

Are we heading for a proper Greenland block ( or just a ridge that will collapse  ? )

 

Yes - its a stonker but we have been here so many times with ECM since the upgrade around the time i started viewing models.

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30 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

 

ECM has progressed nicely over the last 24 hrs. The big question is what will the 192 chart look like tomorrow morning ?

Are we heading for a proper Greenland block ( or just a ridge that will collapse  ? )

no sign that any greeny high can be sustained 

extended eps clusters vary varied and nothing particularly wintry on offer 

 

Edited by bluearmy
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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I can't help but notice how as soon has we get the first glimmer of a cold shot, it's quickly shot down in its chances by some. The fact its showing at all must at least give us some hope, let's face it, even day 9 and 10 cold charts have been lacking anything wintry this year so far... Lovely day 9/10 ECM chart... Let's build on it hopefully!! Oh and big welcome to Retron, a very good poster from two.... Somethings a brewing when he turns up.. ?

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

Experience tells us that the ECM evolution happens 1 time out of a hundred, this is the reality. Currently a potent northerly is a low likelihood, let's see in the coming days if we can strengthen the signal or whether it will wain which is what happens the vast majority of times. I don't think I've posted since early December as there has been no signal for anything cold since the polar maritime around the 12th, this is the reality! Let's watch and wait ?

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Very unsettled GFS 6z with wind and rain .fi looks a shocker compared to earlier PV very dominant and less troughing to the south east of Europe??

Edited by swfc
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Not much to say about latest gfs run,just rinse and repeat? ?no sign of anything changing on this run 

Edited by SLEETY
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Clearly we are seeing divergence between the models on how this plays out..

Something drier and colder for late Jan looks a decent shout at this juncture IMO.

 

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Let’s hope ECM 216hrs and 240hrs are onto a change to colder conditions,GFS looks like more of the same

old changeable weather.Keep are fingers crossed that ECM has finally picked up on a pattern change to 

colder weather.

 

 

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