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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Seems like another part of the puzzle unfolding on the gfs   now an easterly, where will this all end. Hang on gang we could be digging ourselves out soon .very interesting synoptics for us coldies, over to tomorrow for the Ecm .

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh go on then BOOM ? 

16265873-3545-404F-B40E-564DECF95507.png

204CD027-5D42-47AA-848E-4153D6A94FC9.png

Aye, leaves the Lake District I the Lee of the rain/ snow shadow like the BFTE did in 2018! Can we just have a potent northerly instead please?

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10 minutes ago, legritter said:

Seems like another part of the puzzle unfolding on the gfs   now an easterly, where will this all end. Hang on gang we could be digging ourselves out soon .very interesting synoptics for us coldies, over to tomorrow for the Ecm .

Hope your right but I think the digging out bit may be a little to early to say lol, it will probably all be different in the morning, if it’s still looking like this come this time tomorrow and most other models have similar then maybe something to watch

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Scandi block unlikely > Greenland block is more probable relating to the phasing of the 2 High pressures ( UK + Canadian ) Ie retrograde NW.

Shades of 15/12/2010!

 

Quite an incredible turnaround if it happens.

 

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Scandi block unlikely > Greenland block is more probable relating to the phasing of the 2 High pressures ( UK + Canadian ) Ie retrograde NW.

Shades of 15/12/2010!

 

I eluded to that a few nights ago Steve, though given the way this winter has gone I think we would take either form of blocking ?  Certainly signs that the main section of tpv will be going toward the Siberian / Scandinavian side.

 

On 08/01/2020 at 23:41, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

P17 goes down the December 2010 route (when that section of PV dropped down across the UK) 1544977937_gensnh-17-1-384(1).thumb.png.6898cc966546d608644543f4b9057c01.png  

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I eluded to that a few nights ago Steve, though given the way this winter has gone I think we would take either form of blocking ?  Certainly signs that the main section of tpv will be going toward the Siberian / Scandinavian side.

 

 

Note the 'super high' over GH > I wrote about these in the winter forecast 18/19

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34 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Note the 'super high' over GH > I wrote about these in the winter forecast 18/19

Give me some hope - i want my 29 years of waiting to come to an end -  i am absolutely effing gutted - do you think we could get an SSW early feb?

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Might be some signs of the PV weakening which may allow a ridge more towards Greenland but too me it's very tentitive and as far as the UK is concerned, the outlook has not changed to what we seen from most of this winter so far. If anything, quite mild air is once again is looking likely on some runs. 

Certainly nothing overly cold in the outputs showing I'm afraid. 

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The ECM clusters at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.7402658d14b1091455542e18bd6c6054.jpg

It is interesting to compare the clusters at the same time from the day before's ECM 12z ens, T264:

image.thumb.jpg.23566d4f5f777fcdac50e1e2f8d51b2d.jpg

The signal for ridging to the NW seems pretty much new today, maybe the sixth cluster edging that way yesterday.  Will be interesting to see if these promising developments strengthen or disappear on today's runs.

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6 hours ago, IDO said:

Not really seeing a change in pattern to cold in the last half of January for the UK?

Looking at the D10 ECM means:

EDH0-240.thumb.gif.91f3052a99d083714a3f08ae7c680453.gif887092336_EDH1-240(1).thumb.gif.7d854315305e0e1ad29db42e16ea6c29.gif

That takes us to the last week or so of January and average uppers at best! The GEFS offers similar:

gensnh-21-0-240.thumb.png.5d8134987fda5a5fd8428ebb29855853.pnggensnh-21-1-252.thumb.png.823a443abbf0da5a468e96a12dd9b5ab.png

So neither suggests a change. Looking at the D16 mean on the GEFS:

gensnh-21-1-384.thumb.png.056cf8c029abed5132b1c8fc7378e5ff.png With current: gensnh-21-1-0.thumb.png.5aa961b49106a2c61987911fbbb88fda.png

...and we have gone full circle, tPV draining to Siberia and then returning across the Arctic fields back to NE Canada. In such a scenario we would expect a temporary lull in heights to the NW as this cycle completes. Maybe we can get a topple out of it, or a wedge of heights leaking north; but this to me, on what I can see, is the same-old same-old in a repeating zonal pattern with the odd interlude of a mini-ridge? Anyways we will see...

 I have to agree with your post I don’t think we are in for a pattern change yet yes some of the models are showing cold patterns I am not convinced yet also if you look at the Met office extended outlook day not going for a pattern change either how ever I will say this it is good to be called run appearing in models it is better viewing than what it has been over the last few weeks.  ☺️ ✌️

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Well the 00z continues with the theme of HP Spreading towards Greenland and bring down some Cold uppers . although it starts to collapse it right at the end ... but lt's a start and would tie in with the MJO forecasts ... 

 

spacer.png    spacer.png

 

Also Liking ECM at +216

 

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Edited by Westonchris
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all  i say is i got one eye is i got one eye on what could be coming our way  tuesday  wednesday  which do not look very nice to say the least,

and the other eye to see what brewimg up  in la  la   land  at  from jan  25  if the gfs  is right !!! someparts  might have to find  the snow  spades  from the  the shed!!

gfs-2-42.png

gfs-2-348.png

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So the models are moving into line re the D10 possible mini-ridge after some erratic output. As per usual the D10 ECM is the most amplified and we know it verifies badly in such instances. GEM is the middle ground and GFS has now pretty much ended with a UK high:

2112643430_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.706e6c9ca05609b1737a80c94d6e965e.gif1235277303_gemnh-0-240(1).thumb.png.22d4e8a44a562911cf9d3db199f1de02.pnggfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.3cc77a5cea8611dc1381b7087dcb010a.png

It is a topple on all and any cold uppers are associated with the high so no snow. The GEFS mean suggests maybe the GEM will be the closest and the GFS op too flat:

270792187_gensnh-21-1-240(3).thumb.png.01488e274d4f9cfafea416a3f4108fd6.png

The tPV completed its journey to Siberia (D10) and in FI on the GEFS mean it begins its return to NE Canada, at varying rates; D16 mean: 1833107883_gensnh-21-1-384(2).thumb.png.979f06b78153266aa07cafd0e3a6512a.png 

That is clearly a generalisation with the specifics much harder to distinguish. Though again no sign of any tropical forcing apart from some noise. FWIW the GFS op gives us another topple (repeating pattern) in late FI. Maybe uppers closer to climate D10+ so January's current CET of +3.7C above average will be lowered. Hopefully as we end January the tPV will loosen its grip and we get some help from the background signals.

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