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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Yes we have had to wait a long time even to see anything remotely interesting in FI so the idea the Azores high may may relent last 3rd of Jan is definitely news.

Let's hope we see a strengthening signal for blocking over the next few days though if we aren't getting snow then I prefer it to be mild - getting old ?

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

Posted Images

45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Don't be fooled too much by that - it's not a true Greenland high....a day or two later and it's completely gone. You need a proper rise in 500mb heights too rather than just a SLP rise, which is often 'false' due to the topography of Greenland.

Understand, my point was more that we're finally seeing some tentative but inconsistent nuggets of improvement in the output. As for SLP over Greenland I'd not usually take much note of something like a 1040 in that locale however 1060 or above I wouldn't automatically discard as purely topographic.

Edited by Convergence
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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Don't be fooled too much by that - it's not a true Greenland high....a day or two later and it's completely gone. You need a proper rise in 500mb heights too rather than just a SLP rise, which is often 'false' due to the topography of Greenland.

yes. ..but the 500 geos  have all lined for sequence  of possible  significant  rises into the Greenland  plots! !- ...

and at-the very least a starting point of such....

 

 

as we gain !?

 

it's momentum  in general circumstances  that are catching the eyes  as vortex migrate breaks a little looser. ..

and on the raws it's a simple matter of ample views for indeed the,  notion of gain....then indeed interpretation  of mid/high  latitude  rises. ..

it's certainly  looking  a whole deal better. ...later janunary! !!

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

gfs-ens_z500a_atl_65.png

Edited by tight isobar
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hopefully  the 12z raws today should be @direction of relaxed polar vortex stability  @western-quadrant. ..

and a more notable void in the Atlantic  sector of features. ...along with the already noted migration @ eastward  shunt of large lobe encroachment. 

 

 

and the pinpoints  of any rises into ANY  polar plots. ..with 'obviously ' as-per  the Greenland  sheet  point preference! !!!

 

and summing  up......there is real possibility  for all above. ...^^^^

Edited by tight isobar
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30 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yes, I think we are on course for a major change starting this time next week. Signs of the NE Pacific high ridging strongly into the Arctic. This should help to split or relocate the presently very strong PV from its almost stationary location. Cold should soon follow into NE of North American continent after a mild winter by their standards so far and more chillier seasonal temperatures back into much of Europe. Already strong pressure rises taking place in NW Canada with the slow process of some exceptionally cold air flowing out from the interior. Have noted Vancouver to go down to -10c early next week with a easterly wind chill of -20c in the lower Frazer valley. Our team over here expect the major models to start picking up on this very soon. So there is hope to break this bland winter set up.

C

"as of note"...

if these dynamics  take course. ...NW- Europe  as a whole will be on course for a 'likely'...notable cold spill.. (not spell). but sepege! 

.

again the wait will likely  have been worth while. 

 

 

edit :..

awaiting  in the wings !!!!

 

temp4.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Looking out at an utterly bleak, grey, wet and blustery day with no end in sight, the models do nothing to cheer me up.   Here are the (GFS 0.25) potential maximum wind gusts and accumulated rainfall totals over the next five days....

image.thumb.gif.30a5bb40283b8d58bb3e6f6ebb904f56.gif.  image.thumb.gif.0b0e89ff6f512422b626359172aabc16.gif

So, wet and stormy at times is the story for next week - everywhere to see rain and some gales although the north and west always more in the firing line.  With these conditions appearing to be the trend for winter 2020, I personally can't wait for Spring to show its face.

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I'm very interested to see what the models come up with today.  Not a particularly scientific method but when I have the time I like to browse the northern hemisphere charts for the various models up to 10 days out (on the ones that go that far), and some what unexpectedly the GFS isn't out on it's own regarding what appears to be a change of heights, position and shape of the polar vortex. So if everything is flat by this evening blame me and the curse of the commentator, but there seems to be change ahead. I won't take up pages by posting, but should anyone be new and not sure where to begin, I use this as a starting point. 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Meteociel propose des cartes du modèle americain de GFS

 

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image.thumb.png.e74899b0ce31aecd6b061e1cb6a9be96.png

At least the GEFS have the zonal wind speeds dropping closer towards average...Our glass isn't entirely empty ?‍♂️

Edited by weatherguy
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Feels like not many people here this afternoon, but sat in front of the fire, and a bit bored... this seems consistent with the previous run, but to my untrained eye everything seems ever so slightly further west and taking a little bit longer? I'm excited, but happy to be explained to why I'm wrong. 

gfsnh-0-234.png

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Well, to be quite frank, the last 4 weeks of model watching has been the most dire winter output I can ever remember.  However, there are some signs of improvement starting to be shown at least (albeit in FI).  GFS at 240 is certainly worth noting:

image.thumb.png.891b844341f38c866f63a0da66b59b38.png

Let's see if this is a growing trend?

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5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Feels like not many people here this afternoon, but sat in front of the fire, and a bit bored... this seems consistent with the previous run, but to my untrained eye everything seems ever so slightly further west and taking a little bit longer? I'm excited, but happy to be explained to why I'm wrong. 

gfsnh-0-234.png

Your not wrong, but will turn out a rogue...A massive cold outlier

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11 minutes ago, Griff said:

Feels like not many people here this afternoon, but sat in front of the fire, and a bit bored... this seems consistent with the previous run, but to my untrained eye everything seems ever so slightly further west and taking a little bit longer? I'm excited, but happy to be explained to why I'm wrong. 

gfsnh-0-234.png

Obviously I meant this one! Said I was excited! 

gfsnh-0-234 (1).png

Edited by Griff
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elongated  waving. ..

migrate  of mass....

reverse  bunsen  burner layers. ...

what's not to like? ??

we need an amplifier  queen (ecm) to note the aforementioned  signature. ..

then it's not hide. ..nor seek. ..but await! !!

Edited by tight isobar
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This mornings ecm and this evenings gfs at t240. A looooong way to go but isn’t it great to at least have something interesting to view? ????????

A674D973-2ED9-418E-823E-1B10EB4CFBF4.png

67E162C0-56AB-40A5-9D37-0F78516C8D9C.png

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1 minute ago, That ECM said:

This mornings ecm and this evenings gfs at t240. A looooong way to go but isn’t it great to at least have something interesting to view? ????????

A674D973-2ED9-418E-823E-1B10EB4CFBF4.png

67E162C0-56AB-40A5-9D37-0F78516C8D9C.png

Amen to that!!  Micro details are pointless at this range, but what is giving some hope is seeing the majority of the PV pushed away from Canada.  That's going to be key for us, in my humble opinion of course.  Let's hope we see some consistency in the ECM tonight.

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5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

This mornings ecm and this evenings gfs at t240. A looooong way to go but isn’t it great to at least have something interesting to view? ????????

A674D973-2ED9-418E-823E-1B10EB4CFBF4.png

67E162C0-56AB-40A5-9D37-0F78516C8D9C.png

Just model reaction to potential Mjo but will collapse nearer time frame...Seen it so many times?...False hope with such a strong Vortex...Suspect were looking at the best a high over us but reckon it will be West to SW...Mild to West SW winds. Nothing really changing this Winter.

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow
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