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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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I think all you need do this morning if you want to know chances for cold and snow is see at the bottom for how many are browsing!

Currently THREE including myself

 

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10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I think all you need do this morning if you want to know chances for cold and snow is see at the bottom for how many are browsing!

Currently THREE including myself

 

Yes, better indicator than the models! I think there are some signs though, the movement of the PV more towards Siberia is certainly encouraging. 

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A4EC6988-EEDE-49F9-AA64-C8E9A662C048.thumb.png.54907f8955d60913fd9f61dce895f23f.png

Reasons the 00Z ECMWF day 10 chart may not happen 🚫

1). Could be a chance of it over-doing the amplification of the High Pressure in the Atlantic area. The model can apparently be prone of over-amplifying the weather patterns at times. (although a lot of models can be sorta guilty of this in some form - perhaps ECMWF being the worst with this, mind).

2). Not really any support from other operational models, such as the GFS and GEM

3). The NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly chart not supporting any blocking in the Atlantic at the moment. More of a UK/Southern UK upper high.
87414A0E-EC98-4023-B3E0-7FD8C77188AA.thumb.gif.4556a4f69b5dd7364ca28b3c79368e5b.gif
 

4). It’s at 240 hours away, models less reliable at that time-range (but can be good for trend spotting).

Reasons the ECMWF chart at day 10 could happen ✅

1). There’s a small(ish) chance it may have picked up a new signal. Not impossible for it to get an outlook correct at the day 9/10 range.

2). Despite what I said about the GFS not supporting the ECMWF, some future runs from that model could possibly lead to a scenario where more of a proper ridge in the Atlantic occurs. Having Low Pressure to the North of the UK quickly clearing away to the East of the UK, while ridging to the South-West of it in the Atlantic ridges further North or North-East to become more of a proper, amplified Atlantic ridge. As shown by the arrows below. Would be ideal as well for Low Pressure exiting Eastern Northern America to not quickly run over any possible ridging in the Atlantic, as that would likely keep the pattern flatter. 

0607DF9B-503F-47EA-AF9A-95921CE08E34.thumb.jpeg.4873b5e33db71590c1a8a98e60cddda2.jpeg
 

Never worth taking charts at the day 10 range too seriously. All for a bit of amusement though, since it’s fairly quiet in the thread this morning, which is understandable. Probably for now best to be weary of that ECMWF chart. Rather pretty to look at if you’re after colder weather.

EF60110A-370B-44D9-903C-817ECE9BF61D.jpeg

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28 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Here is the day 10 ECM mean

 

85902684-F012-41E6-9DA0-E9F3D332165D.png
I’ll take that. Not saying it’s going to lead to anything but there are definite signs of a change later this month. I mentioned the other day about a few GFS members moving the PV to Siberia and this shows there is a signal there now from the ECM

Hi

The problem is that the tPV is not static, it is mobile and although it may drain towards Siberia, there is nothing suggesting it will set up shop there. Of course, if there was wave blocking, that could be assumed, but in this instance what you show is just a snapshot and can be taken out of context viz the whole picture? The mean from D8-D16 highlights that the tPV will go to Siberia and return to our NW:

anim_kos2.gif

That is the current cycle within a bigger picture status quo. Unless there are reasons we think the tPV will stop in Siberia all that transient migration allows is maybe a +'ve height anomaly in our sector before it is swamped by the circulating vortex. We see this in the current output. I think that any optimism should be concentrated on hopefully background signals forcing the pattern; not muted by what has currently made this winter such an epic non-entity!

Edited by IDO

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spacer.pngECM 0Z @ t192  

ECM has demonstrated some good progression over the last 2 days ( from t240 to t192 with similar charts to the above ).

It will be interesting to watch Jan 19th as we approach the t144 timescale in 48 hours time to see if this is maintained ( and supported by UKMO or not ?)

With suggestions of the PV moving away towards Siberia , there are tentative signs that a pattern change may commence around Jan 19th. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Jeremy Shockey

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29 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Here is the day 10 ECM mean

 

85902684-F012-41E6-9DA0-E9F3D332165D.png
I’ll take that. Not saying it’s going to lead to anything but there are definite signs of a change later this month. I mentioned the other day about a few GFS members moving the PV to Siberia and this shows there is a signal there now from the ECM

Eh?..... youll take a moderate westerly flow? I cannot se anything on that (or previous) charts posted recently to suggest theres any cold evolution building. Nothing unusual there is there? what am i missing?

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1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Eh?..... youll take a moderate westerly flow? I cannot se anything on that (or previous) charts posted recently to suggest theres any cold evolution building. Nothing unusual there is there? what am i missing?

Snow-tinted spectacles of course!8)

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5 hours ago, Mr TOAD said:

I've noticed that just now.

 

I think we have to accept the heights to our south as the new climate norm.  Climate change will push things north-wards, and that means we can kiss any decent cold winter weather goodbye.  We're faced with a future of either Atlantic storminess, or the pallid dross we've experienced so far this winter.  I give up.

I hear you mate

I'm sure we could cope with a) the occasional mild winter if we have decent winters in other years and b) 8 or 9 weeks of mild weather if we can have 3 or 4 weeks of cold and snow to go with it

However, the run of warm winters, especially January's, is remarkable and suggests something has changed including the bloated nature of the azores high and its displacement north. 

Good news is that has, generally, made our summers much better! In the south anyway

The ECM looks great today at days 9 and 10, including the NH and polar profile, but with the changes being experienced, you always get the feeling that the models are underestimating the strength and persistence of the AZ/Euro high combo and it will all collapse as it gets nearer the time due to the atmosphere behaving in a different way

Desperate stuff

Having said that, if things continue to bloat northwards we might get cold spells as the azores high boats towards Greenland! If there is any cold left in the Arctic by then! 😉 

Edited by LRD

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20 minutes ago, IDO said:

Hi

The problem is that the tPV is not static, it is mobile and although it may drain towards Siberia, there is nothing suggesting it will set up shop there. Of course, if there was wave blocking, that could be assumed, but in this instance what you show is just a snapshot and can be taken out of context viz the whole picture? The mean from D8-D16 highlights that the tPV will go to Siberia and return to our NW:

anim_kos2.gif

That is the current cycle within a bigger picture status quo. Unless there are reasons we think the tPV will stop in Siberia all that transient migration allows is maybe a +'ve height anomaly in our sector before it is swamped by the circulating vortex. We see this in the current output. I think that any optimism should be concentrated on hopefully background signals forcing the pattern; not muted by what has currently made this winter such an epic non-entity!

I don't think anyone is expecting a lasting high latitude block.  Even a one day toppler would do.

We're that desperate.

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11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Eh?..... youll take a moderate westerly flow? I cannot se anything on that (or previous) charts posted recently to suggest theres any cold evolution building. Nothing unusual there is there? what am i missing?

He's probably referring to the pv sodding off to siberia and what that might lead to but, yes, it's pretty thin gruel we're being fed

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54 minutes ago, IDO said:

Hi

The problem is that the tPV is not static, it is mobile and although it may drain towards Siberia, there is nothing suggesting it will set up shop there. Of course, if there was wave blocking, that could be assumed, but in this instance what you show is just a snapshot and can be taken out of context viz the whole picture? The mean from D8-D16 highlights that the tPV will go to Siberia and return to our NW:

anim_kos2.gif

That is the current cycle within a bigger picture status quo. Unless there are reasons we think the tPV will stop in Siberia all that transient migration allows is maybe a +'ve height anomaly in our sector before it is swamped by the circulating vortex. We see this in the current output. I think that any optimism should be concentrated on hopefully background signals forcing the pattern; not muted by what has currently made this winter such an epic non-entity!

Hi. Thanks for the in depth reply and analysis. It’s just better than what we’ve had all winter so far that’s all I’m saying. We have a slight chance of something better, again not difficult. 
 

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45 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Eh?..... youll take a moderate westerly flow? I cannot se anything on that (or previous) charts posted recently to suggest theres any cold evolution building. Nothing unusual there is there? what am i missing?

Hi. No nothing unusual you’re right. I am referring to what it could lead to (most likely won’t as IDO has replied to). This is how deperate our hunt for cold has become unfortunately. 

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Dear Mr God

Will you please let the esteemed FV3 know that it is still January, and not May? Thank you very muchly.

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png :diablo:

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

One thing I've noticed, SLEETY, is that the 00Z tends to emphasise warmer T850s, and the 12Z rather less-so...? Not that that's likely to mean much, at the end of the day...

Yes that's correct sometimes, and let's hope the next 12z run shows something even resembling winter, because the 06z run currently going is absolutely horrendous for cold weather fans. 

Which country in the whole of Europe is going to be the mildest in about a week or so time, according to gfs lol, answers on a postcard 

 The warmest Jan CET must be underthreat if this run comes off. 

Wretched model viewing continues.. 

Edited by SLEETY

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00z clusters:

Day 10 - strong heights likely close to/over the UK

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011100_240.

Day 12 - Some divergence, a couple of clusters showing something similar to the OP run with a northerly setting up

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011100_288.

Day 15 - Most ensemble members showing a return to westerlies in some form

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011100_360.

My summary would be don't expect any long lasting dry and settled spell....maybe a few days before we end up back at square one.

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6z GFS corker so far - certainly compared to recent model output. Surface cold certainly anyway.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

6z GFS corker so far - certainly compared to recent model output. Surface cold certainly anyway.

It is a decent run be it isolated.be very good for scan and eastern europe.think the clocks ticking so surface cold isn't for me

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ECM very keen on rising pressure,once again if this happens we desperately need the orientation to

be to the north of the U.K. We can only hope in a very disappointing winter so far.Head up and think

positive.

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image.thumb.png.81d0caee01d0732cf149a53a38e5c273.pngimage.thumb.png.04b33254a7c05efe4e5a13af1418a69e.png

 

is it true? i hope for more than 1 day .....

Edited by Dennis

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1 minute ago, Griff said:

Breaking news? More to follow? 

image.thumb.png.6c7ff3f6e31a6e3f9ba1c42a625877df.png

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Remember if the surface pressure is high even if the 500mb profile isn't spectacular, you can still get real cold, although the problem can then be PPN.

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The chances of any cold weather charts verifying for the UK appear to be zero this winter so far anything mild shown, no problem with it verifying then of course! 

 

Not holding hope for this gfs run either,but the very mild part will of course be correct! 

Edited by SLEETY

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GFS 006 gets interesting from 216 onwards. Watch the pressure rise rapidly over Greenland from 1016 @216 to 1060 @ 252hrs.

image.thumb.png.8c253c6a1ab76696ca8882d3acac573b.pngimage.thumb.png.26c5924c06ccfb7beb44166a22a7d283.pngimage.thumb.png.6321add0c1e079005bff6e201d551f62.pngimage.thumb.png.8a34b014b519f95a244c45a4fd4facb4.pngimage.thumb.png.8db7a53e64c11ea77cd1dfcde8b9085a.pngimage.thumb.png.660272b6b3cf48b7c56d88d7d4c2ea90.pngimage.thumb.png.6d0546642318704b83da94d6450c9da1.pngimage.thumb.png.ab14db2d9c34111ad2c7aac795018643.pngimage.thumb.png.c9dec4a05500d852d26c39eb875138c9.pngimage.thumb.png.0cb0252b18929c1ec9a8b70cd63976ad.pngEdit: 1st image is 252, last is 216, wasn't expecting it to load in that order 🙂

 

Edited by Convergence

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22 minutes ago, Convergence said:

GFS 006 gets interesting from 216 onwards. Watch the pressure rise rapidly over Greenland from 1016 @216 to 1060 @ 252hrs.

image.thumb.png.8c253c6a1ab76696ca8882d3acac573b.pngimage.thumb.png.26c5924c06ccfb7beb44166a22a7d283.pngimage.thumb.png.6321add0c1e079005bff6e201d551f62.pngimage.thumb.png.8a34b014b519f95a244c45a4fd4facb4.pngimage.thumb.png.8db7a53e64c11ea77cd1dfcde8b9085a.pngimage.thumb.png.660272b6b3cf48b7c56d88d7d4c2ea90.pngimage.thumb.png.6d0546642318704b83da94d6450c9da1.pngimage.thumb.png.ab14db2d9c34111ad2c7aac795018643.pngimage.thumb.png.c9dec4a05500d852d26c39eb875138c9.pngimage.thumb.png.0cb0252b18929c1ec9a8b70cd63976ad.pngEdit: 1st image is 252, last is 216, wasn't expecting it to load in that order 🙂

 

Don't be fooled too much by that - it's not a true Greenland high....a day or two later and it's completely gone. You need a proper rise in 500mb heights too rather than just a SLP rise, which is often 'false' due to the topography of Greenland.

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The model outputs have got a lot more interesting the last few days . ECM good days 9 and 10 , yes we know it over amplifies in its later stages but now the GFS is showing height rises to the NW . About time we had some interesting output. 
 

ECM -38226CDD-2DA3-47E2-8CF3-37CBB8AD3ED7.thumb.png.dba633fbe356c23a1dd40a89cbfe6de1.png

GFS-3EF9EB7C-9188-4462-A3C0-AF4688E11215.thumb.png.fa1f00ee1a858dba87c4c193b086231e.png

 

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