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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks OK, certainly a better run than the 00z and potentially colder options down the line ..

Yes, the ECM now sniffing out changes down the line. I was kind of worried that it was going to stick with the strong PV theme so although not perfect it's some relief that there are similarities to the GFS with this amplification. Might get some decent runs popping up in the next day or two.

 

 

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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ECM0-240.GIF?09-0ECM 12z @ t240

 

spacer.pngGFS 12z @ t240

 

spacer.pngGEM 12z @ t240

A comparison of ECM , GFS , GEM 12z runs t240 . All have high pressure just to the W or NW of the UK with varying degree of uppers over us.

Certainly more interesting than a few days ago and a change to all those the barrelling lows coming our way perhaps.

We could do with cold , frosty and relatively dry !

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Heading into a very disturbed and volatile pattern from the weekend and into week as the main and intense upper trough moves closer with a racing jet stream. 
 

Some potentially very windy and disruptive weather on the way as lows rapidly deepen as they encounter the main trough and the powerful jet stream. 
 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

~70CM for Glencoe through Tues> Weds

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3 or 4 days was it steve...glad to have you back...if you ever left of course.

 

Liking the depths there(not likely accurate of course)....I'm hopefully going to Edinburgh in a week or so and hoping to catch some white stuff.

 

A cold northwest flow is dropping it the wrong side of the mountains though...

 

Here's hoping!

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I have but its worth highlighting an extreme event even for the hills.

The way next week is shaping out Western Scotland is going to get buried ( with a bit of height )

My apologies was just highlighting what you said on Sunday!

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I think we are seeing some ‘seasonal weather’ rinse coming from the models.  The HP just not getting there, it’s close and won’t take much...but I haven’t a bullish feeling for it though.  Happy with the general evolution though and will be quite nippy at night.

Scotland will be wintry....and far North will be joining them too

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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9 minutes ago, TomW said:

gfs-0-240.png?18gfs-1-240.png?18

Seasonal best describes this chart!

If this was to become a theme it really wouldn’t surprise me to see that low a bit further north and the high a bit further nw too, or of course it may be completely different come the day ?

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2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

If this was to become a theme it really wouldn’t surprise me to see that low a bit further north and the high a bit further nw too, or of course it may be completely different come the day ?

Yes, those charts look a little wishy washy as they are!  However, much better than we've had so far this winter.

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13 minutes ago, TomW said:

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Seasonal best describes this chart!

Yes at last! The models are moving in the right direction, we have our lucky ticket, but the big win is still a fair way off..... for now.;)

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The CFS MJO forecast makes it to phase 8 and GFS looks pretty similar poised for the same, ECM still not as good though as said even a halfway house could be decent for cold prospects

CFSO_phase_full.gif

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

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Can't get any worse lol nearly 4c above CET. average for January, incredible. 

Think some real eye CANDY charts will be coming along soon. 

Something to look out for in the future. 

 

Edited by SLEETY
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The ECM moves the core of the Trop PV to Siberia, which, if it happens,  may open up Northerly potential in the latter third of the month.

The caveat is that a residual lobe of PV will remain over NE Canada and simply flatten the pattern.

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9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The ECM moves the core of the Trop PV to Siberia, which, if it happens,  may open up Northerly potential in the latter third of the month.

The caveat is that a residual lobe of PV will remain over NE Canada and simply flatten the pattern.

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Looks OK to me ,of course this is a day 10 chart but with a bit of luck there could be light at the end of a very dark tunnel.

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Doubtful that we’ll even manage some form of mid latitude block with again the likelihood of too much energy still spilling out of the jets northern arm. Our winter foe very much there again to our south by days 9 and 10 bringing at best some chilly overnight temps but nothing of note I’m afraid. Best we can hope for would perhaps for there to be a displacement of the high away to the southwest leading to a northwesterly flow of sorts. In summary, very changeable/unsettled up to around 17th with the prospects of things becoming much more benign soon after. The wait goes on...

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