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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks OK, certainly a better run than the 00z and potentially colder options down the line ..

Yes, the ECM now sniffing out changes down the line. I was kind of worried that it was going to stick with the strong PV theme so although not perfect it's some relief that there are similarities to the GFS with this amplification. Might get some decent runs popping up in the next day or two.

 

 

ECH1-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

ECM0-240.GIF?09-0ECM 12z @ t240

 

spacer.pngGFS 12z @ t240

 

spacer.pngGEM 12z @ t240

A comparison of ECM , GFS , GEM 12z runs t240 . All have high pressure just to the W or NW of the UK with varying degree of uppers over us.

Certainly more interesting than a few days ago and a change to all those the barrelling lows coming our way perhaps.

We could do with cold , frosty and relatively dry !

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Heading into a very disturbed and volatile pattern from the weekend and into week as the main and intense upper trough moves closer with a racing jet stream. 
 

Some potentially very windy and disruptive weather on the way as lows rapidly deepen as they encounter the main trough and the powerful jet stream. 
 

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Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

~70CM for Glencoe through Tues> Weds

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3 or 4 days was it steve...glad to have you back...if you ever left of course.

 

Liking the depths there(not likely accurate of course)....I'm hopefully going to Edinburgh in a week or so and hoping to catch some white stuff.

 

A cold northwest flow is dropping it the wrong side of the mountains though...

 

Here's hoping!

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

~70CM for Glencoe through Tues> Weds

1619A942-456E-443C-9A3F-BCA22A0F2B37.thumb.jpeg.cf5c9b8e7c13851a39d33da3727e8432.jpeg

Thought you signed off for the winter 

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I have but its worth highlighting an extreme event even for the hills.

The way next week is shaping out Western Scotland is going to get buried ( with a bit of height )

My apologies was just highlighting what you said on Sunday!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I think we are seeing some ‘seasonal weather’ rinse coming from the models.  The HP just not getting there, it’s close and won’t take much...but I haven’t a bullish feeling for it though.  Happy with the general evolution though and will be quite nippy at night.

Scotland will be wintry....and far North will be joining them too

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
9 minutes ago, TomW said:

gfs-0-240.png?18gfs-1-240.png?18

Seasonal best describes this chart!

If this was to become a theme it really wouldn’t surprise me to see that low a bit further north and the high a bit further nw too, or of course it may be completely different come the day

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

If this was to become a theme it really wouldn’t surprise me to see that low a bit further north and the high a bit further nw too, or of course it may be completely different come the day

Yes, those charts look a little wishy washy as they are!  However, much better than we've had so far this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
13 minutes ago, TomW said:

gfs-0-240.png?18gfs-1-240.png?18

Seasonal best describes this chart!

Yes at last! The models are moving in the right direction, we have our lucky ticket, but the big win is still a fair way off..... for now.;)

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

The CFS MJO forecast makes it to phase 8 and GFS looks pretty similar poised for the same, ECM still not as good though as said even a halfway house could be decent for cold prospects

CFSO_phase_full.gif

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Can't get any worse lol nearly 4c above CET. average for January, incredible. 

Think some real eye CANDY charts will be coming along soon. 

Something to look out for in the future. 

 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

I’ve always liked the control not a huge support within the various perbs but some

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Atmosphere on the move,the one thing that is not moving is our "friend" Euro high. It just rebounds away every low pressure system away,so frustrating

anim_kmq9.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Might just be wishful thinking on my behalf but could the high go nw from there? Possibly imo. At least it something to watch instead of the crud we’ve had to look at.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

The ECM moves the core of the Trop PV to Siberia, which, if it happens,  may open up Northerly potential in the latter third of the month.

The caveat is that a residual lobe of PV will remain over NE Canada and simply flatten the pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The ECM moves the core of the Trop PV to Siberia, which, if it happens,  may open up Northerly potential in the latter third of the month.

The caveat is that a residual lobe of PV will remain over NE Canada and simply flatten the pattern.

image.thumb.png.4ee8ee08004f518bd64661d0ec90cafc.png

Looks OK to me ,of course this is a day 10 chart but with a bit of luck there could be light at the end of a very dark tunnel.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Doubtful that we’ll even manage some form of mid latitude block with again the likelihood of too much energy still spilling out of the jets northern arm. Our winter foe very much there again to our south by days 9 and 10 bringing at best some chilly overnight temps but nothing of note I’m afraid. Best we can hope for would perhaps for there to be a displacement of the high away to the southwest leading to a northwesterly flow of sorts. In summary, very changeable/unsettled up to around 17th with the prospects of things becoming much more benign soon after. The wait goes on...

61D14905-FE08-45AB-A096-D4764B357D23.jpeg

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