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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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13 minutes ago, Griff said:

Dear moderators, 

Please can you remove the word "happy" from the title of this thread? 

Yours faithfully, 

Frustrated in Oxfordshire 

😂

 

Hopefully the outlook in the Models will change, but for now I agree *Spanish plume new year* 😴

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gefs are in the same ball park around day 12 as the eps in having a fair cluster driving a new ridge from the azores with the atlantic trough digging against it with resultant WAA - that's the next timescale to be looking at for coldies with a small chance that this can get a ridge far enough north …...

Hence my comment on the 12z op...

🙂

 

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gefs are in the same ball park around day 12 as the eps in having a fair cluster driving a new ridge from the azores with the atlantic trough digging against it with resultant WAA - that's the next timescale to be looking at for coldies with a small chance that this can get a ridge far enough north …...

Still a chance of a Scandi high there, the control is trying hard for us but just fails, colder flow from the continent likely though, frosts/fog? it would be nice if the QBO going negative this month came to our rescue sooner rather than later.

gensnh-0-1-336.png

gensnh-21-5-324.png

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Increasingly looks like January will  be a lost cause in the hunt for snow, so we cancel 2 thirds of winter lol.

Although the MJO is not directly responsible for the very positive +AO, +4 sigma over coming days, it does have an impact on the wave patterns moving around the base of the polar vortex in the temperate northern hemisphere. It’s stuck in the warm phases of 4/5/6 until at least Jan 20th, i.e. maintaining the status quo with little shake up the wave lengths and positions of the troughs of the polar vortex. There is chance that the MJO stalls in the 'warm' phases over the maritime continent for a long time before the wave fades. However, some of the alternatives to the RMM plots, which can often play catch up to what’s actually going on, have suggested the MJO wave moving through to the western hemisphere 8/1 late Jan / early Feb, so the RMM plots perhaps too eager to kill off the MJO in the maritime continent.

So, if we see the MJO move through to the western hemisphere, we could see a shake up in the upper flow to amplify it combining with the increasing stress on the PV from the descending QBO, such that it weakens or is displaced, that we manage to get some blocking in February.

The 12z extended EPS dangles the carrot of ridging to our east signal and the PV relaxing its grip. But we’ve seen promising signs of this at day 8-10 only for it to evaporate or shoved further away into the extended range. Besides, the ridging is useless unless we get troughing to undercut it over southern/central Europe.

This winter of waiting for snow potential is tough, but we've been here before. Still Feb and March to deliver the goods though.

 

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Quote

 

Timmytour
29th December 2019 22:48


Not known anything like this for a long time. But now I live in hope that the lack of modelled opportunities is indicative of a huge flip in the models that will take place soon which starts showing us the Narnia that will start being delivered from 14th Jan.

I used to rely on the models for hope. Now I'm relying on my imagination!! 

 

I'm still backing my imagination against the models and background signals 🤣🤣

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10 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yep, we have been put on alert for next week to save as much snow as possible. To warm above the inversion to operate snow cannon feed. Poor outlook for snow lovers across much of Eouroland.

C

 

The forecasted temperatures for this week looks lower now then few days back forecast was showing, so maybe it won't be so fatal. The dew point is low, but of course the lack of fresh snow is very bad.  I just returned from Katschi today, it was nice to see S. Michael covered by snow as well, though not really a thick layer there. -12C in St. Margarethen was like going to freezer :).

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, moravian said:

 

The forecasted temperatures for this week looks lower now then few days back forecast was showing, so maybe it won't be so fatal. The dew point is low, but of course the lack of fresh snow is very bad.  I just returned from Katschi today, it was nice to see S. Michael covered by snow as well, though not really a thick layer there. -12C in St. Margarethen was like going to freezer :).

 

 

 

Yes, been fantastic today in the sunshine. The concern is for the middle of next week with the forecast high uppers and tropical sourced air mass in the mix.  Hopefully, it will be tempered down.

 C

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Short term - interesting to note a breakaway shallow low feature within the upper trough on Thursday, often a common feature when the atlantic is in full turbo charge as now. There are quite cold uppers moving into the N Atlantic fuelling a marked temp contrast. ECM is showing some colder air filtering into northern parts at least from time to time, so something a bit wintry for northern high ground at least.

Longer term - no obvious sign of any pattern change anytime soon, but some signals to suggest may see a bit more amplification in the overall flow of things - a breakaway cut off diving low might force some sort of change before the month is out, with ridge to the north east - a split flow.

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Posted (edited)

120 fax chart brings a low in the south west to run into the channel, albeit a weakening affair, more mild weather for a few days yet although it did feel a little chiller today than it has been.

 

Edited by PDM

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EC46 is a Bartlett throughout.

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is a Bartlett throughout.

Solidly +NAO ......

at least the newspapers have been made to look like the chicken wobbles they are ......

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Solidly +NAO ......

at least the newspapers have been made to look like the chicken wobbles they are ......

My mate said there was gonna be snow in Devon, said there was a yellow warning, i told him there definitely will not and there probably wont be snow anywhere habitable throughout January, cant find out where he got that info from, first port of call was the express but couldn't find anything there.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Solidly +NAO ......

at least the newspapers have been made to look like the chicken wobbles they are ......

This is turning into the most rubbish winter model watching I can remember . Not just because there’s been no wintry weather to note but there’s not one bit of hope in any medium or longer range models . It’s so frustrating. 

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is a Bartlett throughout.

And that would takes us the end of February. 

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

And that would takes us the end of February. 

Wouldn't write feb off based on that but forget Jan, and will require an SSW now to get blocking any time before late February.

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Solidly +NAO ......

at least the newspapers have been made to look like the chicken wobbles they are ......

Is there any chance of the jet digging south? Through late Nov early Dec the jet was far south and I know a few people speculated it was due to low solar. 

I suppose the key would be losing the heights over Europe so what would help with that? I realise that polar NWly's are not going to deliver down south but up here it would be far more preferable imo, than heights building to the east and the tiny chance of a Scandi high.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wouldn't write feb off based on that but forget Jan, and will require an SSW now to get blocking any time before late February.

Yes Feb, was just gonna say, we can't take an EC46 for a 6 week period to literally! Especially after last year. We may need an SSW to break out of this rut though... We have witnessed one the last 2 years, would it be possible to get 3.. Three years running though! Positive background signals for cold this time last year brought a record breaking heatwave come February! So we can't either rule out that happening again this year, or the complete opposite of extreme cold happening. Keep in mind we are not alone in this current mild crud set up, somethings gotta give at some point, where and when is the big question! Regarding the ens tonight, perhaps the op was a little excessive with those temps, the mean being several degrees colder... Nothing significant, but I will take the slightest crumb of comfort right now. 

 

birmingham_ecmsd850.png

london_ecmsd850.png

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wouldn't write feb off based on that but forget Jan, and will require an SSW now to get blocking any time before late February.

Yep there usually is cold weather / snow in Feb and March these days . I think your theory about the PV getting its self together later on in the season is right . It used to ramp up late November and through December . The last few years it’s not got it act together until late December and it stays strong for 6 to 8 weeks so we have no chance of blocking in the write places in mid winter . So we’re left with feb and March. Things don’t last forever tho and it will change but that could be 2 years or 10years . One thing is for sure next November I won’t be getting excited about all the blocky charts and no PV for it all to be chucked out the window when the pv ramps up in late December like it has done the last few years . 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep there usually is cold weather / snow in Feb and March these days . I think your theory about the PV getting its self together later on in the season is right . It used to ramp up late November and through December . The last few years it’s not got it act together until late December and it stays strong for 6 to 8 weeks so we have no chance of blocking in the write places in mid winter . So we’re left with feb and March. Things don’t last forever tho and it will change but that could be 2 years or 10years . One thing is for sure next November I won’t be getting excited about all the blocky charts and no PV for it all to be chucked out the window when the pv ramps up in late December like it has done the last few years . 

Yes, noticed that over last 5 years - never ever bought into the December cold this year, but that consequentially is why i won't write off February and March (yet).

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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@Mattwolves  @ICE COLD

Although notwithstanding what i have said, we need a pre-cursor trop pattern to get the SSW and that is now receding fast as well.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@Mattwolves  @ICE COLD

Although notwithstanding what i have said, we need a pre-cursor trop pattern to get the SSW and that is now receding fast as well.

Yer always seem to need a SSW these days to go cold in this country . It makes me think how on earth did we used to get cold and snowy spells in this country over the past 60 years without a SSW . You couldn’t imagine it happening these days without one ? Not saying it will be like that forever as I said above things change and don’t stay the same forever. 

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yer always seem to need a SSW these days to go cold in this country . It makes me think how on earth did we used to get cold and snowy spells in this country over the past 60 years without a SSW . You couldn’t imagine it happening these days without one ? Not saying it will be like that forever as I said above things change and don’t stay the same forever. 

Usually with the upper westerlies not downwelling early in the season i would have thought and the trop just being allowed to do its own thing, i don't think we had an SSW in 2010-11 and think we didn't get one until Feb 8th in 2009-10 and we had had blocking almost 2 months before then lasting a whole month.

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