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Fingers crossed the 

12 z gfs UK mo and the ECM 

All show the high slightly more west 

Not impossible to have slight upgrades

So atleast some of us have a chance of some snow

 

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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I think we are now at the range where the ICON (similar to 06z GFS) is going to model that ridge topple well:

anim_hnk1.gif

So nothing unusual within the context of this mediocre winter. I suppose just getting even more confirmation of the following post pattern is all we are looking at now. Whether is is a euro or Iberian high or combo?

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Probably another 4 weeks of this wretched pattern to continue over much of Europe, then as spring arrives the pattern will probably go into the complete opposite and another cold spring with March CET lower than January and February. 

Waiting to see when the pattern change shows in the models.. 

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12z gfs is showing possible wintery showers maybe evening some snow showers Eastern side of England and also south east England it’s no big freeze but some parts of south east England could see there first snow of the winter season.

D2FB0B0D-5F6B-448D-BF92-5EF81019627E.png

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At D10 with the strong Pacific high and a wedge of heights over the Arctic, different to the 06z, with the main vortex squeezing further within the Canadian region and could mean a stormier outlook:

1823025711_gfsnh-0-240(1).thumb.png.468efb0a41ed3e627736b7b7cc306cde.png 

Of course the modelling of any Arctic heights changes every run so JFF. Not sure this scenario will lead to any blocking in our region but another possible route towards mid February.

Edited by IDO
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1 minute ago, IDO said:

At D10 with the strong Pavific high ane a wedge of heights over the Arctic, different to the 06z, with the main vortex squeezing further within the Canadian region and could mean a stormier outlook:

1823025711_gfsnh-0-240(1).thumb.png.468efb0a41ed3e627736b7b7cc306cde.png 

Of course the modelling of any Arctic heights changes every run so JFF. Not sure this scenario will lead to any blocking in our region but another possible route towards mid February.

It has pushed the colder air further south in the zonal flow.

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Just now, frosty ground said:

It has pushed the colder air further south in the zonal flow.

Yes, I never comment on the uppers at that range as they can be over-amped. However, potential for snow showers for the usual suspects in that type of flow is taken. As for the S and SE, too early to speculate assuming it verifies like it is showing?

gfseu-1-282.thumb.png.9bbf793a5035fecd238fa3e188bb88f2.png

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, I never comment on the uppers at that range as they can be over-amped. However, potential for snow showers for the usual suspects in that type of flow is taken. As for the S and SE, too early to speculate assuming it verifies like it is showing?

gfseu-1-282.thumb.png.9bbf793a5035fecd238fa3e188bb88f2.png

It was only a few days ago you posted a comparison of Cold uppers at that range.

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5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It was only a few days ago you posted a comparison of Cold uppers at that range.

For easterlies and Northerlies I like to mention them (IMBY'ism), but not from a NW'ly, as by the time they cross the ocean, then the UK, us in the south are usually feeding off scraps. But yes, not a bad run for the NW, N and West as the uppers stand, but 250h to go, and they rarely get colder as we get closer, the upcoming ridge highlights this. 

I must admit I am a bit bias towards my locale when cold and snow is concerned so I might not be politically correct in my comments viz the whole UK. For me, NW'lys are a bit underwhelming and I dismiss them rather easily. But in Oldham they may be more interesting so not a bad run for you. Though probably all change by the 18z! 

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13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO now the flattest solution after being one of the most amplified before .

The wheels came off as early as T72 hrs upstream with the more offshore and weaker ne USA  low .

In the grand scheme of things these early differences aren’t going to be a game changer as we are talking about really just an extra day of colder conditions before the high sinks .

The winter season if we can call it that has been one of any decent amplification shown even at day 6 range not managing to verify .

Overall after this colder blip or snap depending on which model is correct the outlook is dismal for cold .

Normally the PV weakens as you head into February but this one looks like it’s just downed a bottle of steroids ! 

I should add I’d be very dubious of any colder PM flows shown at longer range with a raging PV . This is a model bias especially of the GFS when nearer the time the jet will be corrected further north .

Unless we see a big change in the PV then the output past day 6 is to be blunt utter crap for cold ! 

 

Absoluetly insane nick. 

Not to say it will come off mind you, but flicking through the GFS the PV is a monster. 

Low solar activity and above average sea ice the main factors ? 

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spacer.pngGFS 12z @ 120

spacer.pngECM 12z @ 120

spacer.pngUKMO 12z @ 120

spacer.pngGEM 12z @ 120

Comparing the main 4 @ t120 . It is not great viewing . All we have is a 24 hour cold shot on 4th Feb ( maybe stretching into 5th ) . Cold down the East coast for a time but that is about it. All over by Feb 6th and back to South Westerlies thereafter, 

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A kick in the gut for coldies westerlies travelling thousands of kilometres and look at that baroclinic zone. 

9B690DE3-70FC-42DF-8CEC-B9E891517A65.thumb.png.3628b931b6a5d23298d7fc15586556f4.png

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5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

A kick in the gut for coldies westerlies travelling thousands of kilometres and look at that baroclinic zone. 

9B690DE3-70FC-42DF-8CEC-B9E891517A65.thumb.png.3628b931b6a5d23298d7fc15586556f4.png

Quite incredible stuff for February. The PV should’ve started its collapse quite a while ago yet if anything it’s returning to December strength! Can’t see this AND a high pressure dominated February a la UKMO forecast unless the jet pulls well north!

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Polar North-Westerly looks to be the only chance of snow this year delivers for northern & western regions unfortunately no good elsewhere sure been tough winter snow wise.

ECH1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

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What a terrible set of runs. We’ve all had enough of wind, rain and endless grey skies and westerlies....and it looks like we’re all set for another fortnight at least of the stuff. ECM clusters all  +NAO, very unsettled with a deep trough close to the UK right out to day 15. Buckle up.

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Oh well! At least the last few days have been intriguing from a coldies point of view , Of course getting it to verify is much better , for now it’s not meant to be . Let’s hope another opportunity comes soon . Been great watching the last few days even if for some of us we have not got the result we want .

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Well the next few days are unsettled and mild for most. There is the risk of some snow to lower levels of Scotland for a time on Sunday this could be quite heavy too as a weather front heads erratically northeast snow possible for the hills of Northern England and northern Ireland for a time aswell elsewhere rain some of it quite heavy moving eastward. 

Dwd Icon.. ?

12_72_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.b331b07c168d41fb9f91c9c9bd71ba72.png

12_75_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.34e552f0a84552df554b6ea73951d251.png

 

Arpege.. 

563460294_12_69_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.2157592d111c7610949a4a8ee07aeaf6.png

12_73_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.d25b011167551376b3fd31d98cdadcfa.png

Gfs.. 

12_69_preciptype.thumb.png.a0c8538442218feab9d9f79335834deb.png

Into next week a cold north westerly wind expected to begin the week with wintry showers effecting mainly the Northwest of England, Northern Ireland and Scotland through Monday and Tuesday with then a shift to more Northern and Eastern England by Wednesday with a brief northerly though by this stage the high pressure to the west slipping south and east cutting this cold flow off and by the end of next week becoming much milder again but likely becoming more settled for central and southern parts of the country with northern areas remaining unsettled.

Monday.. ?

1476443944_EUROPE_PRMSL_96(4).thumb.jpg.397172a01955e6126bd1c6be9b614c9c.jpg

Tuesday.. 

1755068997_EUROPE_PRMSL_108(2).thumb.jpg.f3c11fe25dedfa8850ba21403dcfa66d.jpg

125054179_EUROPE_PRMSL_120(2).thumb.jpg.cf4e260a17f9eaff1fb238ee3665a427.jpg

Wednesday.. 

1842257451_EUROPE_PRMSL_132(4).thumb.jpg.f153b1f9f735980469b45b729386ffa6.jpg

Friday 7th..

1955214050_EUROPE_PRMSL_192(2).thumb.jpg.ca0a016673b20da569c6234f3d06bebd.jpg

Saturday 8th..

88468152_EUROPE_PRMSL_204(2).thumb.jpg.2a739fba672a6cd812311334d6d1cffb.jpg

Sunday 9th..

EUROPE_PRMSL_228.thumb.jpg.2915fb0427b86da79f03fe14b8b26165.jpg

Although a while away the following week towards mid February there is at present a strong signal for it to become very unsettled perhaps stormy more widely with a very strong jetstream  across the Atlantic. 

EUROPE_JETSTREAM_252.thumb.jpg.7e302ae6192d82e28beed414a471db92.jpg

EUROPE_JETSTREAM_300.thumb.jpg.f23fdc83b59499e3ba9191ed3b6ae892.jpg

EUROPE_JETSTREAM_348.thumb.jpg.ffd96e741e6699ef6d9f42a133ef0f4a.jpg

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37 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

From my West of Scotland point of view this is exactly what I want to see/happen!

ECM 240

C03F33F4-A899-4BA8-B84A-18D4DB983701.thumb.png.33b37cd394132805cabba7e5ddcb4445.png367B9A2B-A060-4159-B399-4E1DD1FFB7C6.thumb.png.f773c558248f2461c1ec3238bad24cbe.png
 

GFS selected snow charts (Too many to choose from - very snowy run after these below)

A5889315-3E1C-4FBD-88E6-4E4EBC116C20.thumb.png.dcc99bc857921035f292f9712cb85281.pngC06FB79A-FEFB-49A4-B68B-6BCB4DEA6E8A.thumb.png.63ab67d273931b704c3d6bea0f597907.png88B6603E-6A4F-4033-AE5A-4B8CCC359F67.thumb.png.59325064fc21b3ac4ce037d4d5f65f6f.png
 

I will take a Polar North Westerly everyday of the week - personal favourite! 

Only problem is they get watered down quite a bit when they arrive! These look our best shot of bringing wintry conditions within the next couple of weeks and beyond at the moment.

This would do for now and a nice warm up for the beast from the East arriving in March. ??

Keep the faith UK and Ireland cold/snow lovers - only way is up after the crud we have had to endure so far! Keep those sledges to hand you just never know what could happen over the next 6 to 8 weeks. ?

Modelling of the jet is always overplayed (i.e. modelled too far south) in these set-ups.

The ext EPS is horrific.  Very low heights in the Greenland locale along with significant Euro heights.  Pattern incredibly strong for a day 15 mean.  First half of Feb is a write off (quite likely all of Feb).

 

Edited by mulzy
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So where are we this evening? somewhere different to where we were yesterday, and more akin to what was being shown early on the week, less of an amplified flow early next week, thanks to a projected less deepening of low pressure out of NE USA. We are left with a flatter solution with heights ridging through and into UK more quickly, perhaps a colder flow for 24 hrs or so 4-5 Feb. Thereafter, that PV looks to want to move into turbo gear as others have pointed out, which can only mean a very unsettled period then ahead, with strong winds/gales, bouts of heavy rain and generally mild.. some signs may see some colder polar maritime air at times, but as we've seen recently the potency of such blasts seems to have been reduced come nearer the time, with cold air digging down into the mid atlantic and jet riding more on a SW-NE path.

Would welcome thoughts from others reasons why PV wants to gain strength again, effects of MJO perhaps.

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