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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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The 18z viewing was a pain in my tooth from early on but i have a local anesthetic at stand by 

i will hold off on the prozac for now as is there is some resolve to be resolved in terms of downstream/upstream energy and how amplified this gains

we still have the time for the models to align in a favor that brings cold to our shores

as always...FL is 120+,and stop there

catch you in the morning,well i will view in the morning before dashing to work at 05:45.

night.

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

Posted Images

And the strat charts are crap as well now.

image.thumb.png.398489fc4075d1feb057737683bffafe.png

 

Once Freddie krugger gets into full voice and it gets to the 10th Feb, im afraid the only outcome is usually the fat lady starting to harmonise with him.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the strat charts are crap as well now.

image.thumb.png.398489fc4075d1feb057737683bffafe.png

 

Once Freddie krugger gets into full voice and it gets to the 10th Feb, im afraid the only outcome is usually the fat lady starting to harmonise with him.

pre-evaluated. ..

!!

the horse has bolted. ..and if he didn't. ..he's on a long down welling road. 

I'm astonished how some...big...and small are ignoring  the factors  of curent  overheads. ..and ram'?

that will  focus  in earlier  time funds! !

@shocking

 

Edited by tight isobar
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A longer spell of snow is likely mainly on higher ground for parts of central and perhaps Western Scotland late tomorrow morning into the afternoon as a frontal system moves eastwards some accumulations are possible this may turn back to rain later in the afternoon but some uncertainty with this and the placement.. some rain likely moving into northern England and northern Ireland too this could be wintry on hills when it first moves into these areas but generally rain. 

Arpege.. ?

18_18_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.068632cc563e133ae0b68d7bb0ec55ef.png

GFS.. ?

18_18_preciptype.thumb.png.f2ac22050430d91d645c541e2583626a.png

18_21_preciptype.thumb.png.346ab3bb7292d40c2ae2821544ce58c3.png

Ecmwf.. ?

overview_20200128_12_024.thumb.jpg.7e4daa6f5f6c8db70ccb4962cd28dea3.jpg

Dwd Icon.. ?

1116137594_18_18_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.f5450ff024717e66c7564b846dd6b314.png

110132971_18_21_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.a9acb43333bd8a827bc7b411e2842d10.png

Hirlam.. ?

18_19_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.ded74742cc1c95289caf01285acf161e.png1457682885_18_21_ukpreciptype(2).thumb.png.498b3a3d82017430e32b7c176f5ac1fe.png

Edited by jordan smith
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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the strat charts are crap as well now.

image.thumb.png.398489fc4075d1feb057737683bffafe.png

 

Once Freddie krugger gets into full voice and it gets to the 10th Feb, im afraid the only outcome is usually the fat lady starting to harmonise with him.

I wouldn't say the fat lady sings just on one run Feb

lets see what happens over the next couple of days

roller coasters spring to mind.

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

pre-evaluated. ..

!!

the horse has bolted. ..and if he didn't. ..he's on a long down welling road. 

I'm astonished how some...big...and small are ignoring  the factors  of curent  overheads. ..and ram'?

 

GEFS mean - not even a Northerly toppler now - just a glancing brief PM air barely cold enough to bring snow even on high ground in the North.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the strat charts are crap as well now.

image.thumb.png.398489fc4075d1feb057737683bffafe.png

 

Once Freddie krugger gets into full voice and it gets to the 10th Feb, im afraid the only outcome is usually the fat lady starting to harmonise with him.

I was at peace with this winter being a dud back in November. I've not been stressed about a lack of cold/snow and acceptance of it was really the best thing I could have done.

As an aside, I think we may see the odd polar north westerly incursion through mid-late Feb and maybe into March. How potent these will be though is open to debate...

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A lot of very warm air to the South of Western Europe. Cape Verde islands have been, and are forecast for foreseeable to see high temps of 29/30c - normal temps for now and early Feb are around 24c. Temps in the Canaries are forecast to hit mid 20s this weekend and early next week - normal high are around 20/21c for early Feb. A big area of very warm, above seasonal temps air is waiting, just as v cold air is to our North.

By mid-Feb Western Europe and UK could easily see above average temps, just as much as cold that is poised to our North and East coming to our shores.

Mid-Feb could go either way imho.

Who would bet against a 16c in Southern England by mid-Feb? Then again, would you bet against a short spell of below average temps by mid-Feb?

Place your bets.

Edited by Bristle boy
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I was at peace with this winter being a dud back in November. I've not been stressed about a lack of cold/snow and acceptance of it was really the best thing I could have done.

As an aside, I think we may see the odd polar north westerly incursion through mid-late Feb and maybe into March. How potent these will be though is open to debate...

Yes - i should have mentioned that i don't give up in March and you never know - a proper strat warming could occur late feb and propogate quickly - all i want is a dumping - don't care if its gone in 2 days.

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23 minutes ago, snowray said:

I'm always very weary of the ICON, I have no idea why some members rubbish it, in fact it's been spot on quite a few times in the past, maybe people just have short memories.

From what I remember, the ICON appeared to do well at detecting that monster Easterly in late February 2018. There may have been one or two other models who quickly picked up on that Easterly, although I think the ICON was one of the most consistent models with that  setup.

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14 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

From what I remember, the ICON appeared to do well at detecting that monster Easterly in late February 2018. There may have been one or two other models who quickly picked up on that Easterly, although I think the ICON was one of the most consistent models with that  setup.

the German  model is held in high regard. ..but as a 'nowcast model'..within 96 hrs. ..

it goes in to the  bin bags after that !!

and even the dustmen shy away! !!

Edited by tight isobar
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38 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

the German  model is held in high regard. ..but as a 'nowcast model'..within 96 hrs. ..

it goes in to the  bin bags after that !!

and even the dustmen shy away! !!

Garbage - game over!

image.thumb.png.4ae6e0fa81ffa6222b223ab8c98e8fd1.png

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56 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

From what I remember, the ICON appeared to do well at detecting that monster Easterly in late February 2018. There may have been one or two other models who quickly picked up on that Easterly, although I think the ICON was one of the most consistent models with that  setup.

Yet when the icon was going cold earlier in the season and the other models were not, it proved to be completely wrong, so maybe it and the gfs are completely wrong in  deciding the Northerly won't happen, still too far yet anyway to know either way. 

Edited by SLEETY
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My honest opinion is the 18z gfs is wrong and I think it's been on the shots this evening way too many to be honest. I think we will get a ecmf type evolution with reload after reload and hopefully the weather gods will come together for us coldies and give us a good dumping. Just wanted to laugh at the 18z run or was it cry. Roll on the morning runs and let's bring back the cold flow. Night all

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When the GFS op is such a cold outlier it’s hardly a surprise for it to fall back in line with other GEFS members in subsequent runs. The cold charts were well in lala land on the 12z run.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Game over on the GFS 0z run as well with too much energy spilling South of Greenland instead of going more up the western flank.

This part of the world seems to be poorly modelled in lala land so should always be wary of charts > 96t!

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Well so much for that! As has been the case all winter, unless someone pops the azores high a couple of viagra its just not happpening!

Quite ironic that in desperate times in the past, the Icon and Gem get brought out the closet, yet no one gave them any credance yesterday when they were going against the northerly.

Edited by KTtom
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7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hi DRL

Further to our earlier conversation it has come to my attention that peeps are frequently using my day nine and ten output and then blaming me when they quickly fail to verify. This practice is tantamount to abuse and needs to stop with immediate effect

Regards

ECMWF

Would be better if they just ran it to 168 like the UKMO - all thre models struggle after day 5/6.

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ECM still showing decent mid Atlantic amplification in the medium range!  Not a done deal yet as most other models have backed off but reassuring that the gold standard not budging.

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7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM still showing decent mid Atlantic amplification in the medium range!  Not a done deal yet as most other models have backed off but reassuring that the gold standard not budging.

The UKMO also looks better at t144 with the ridge.

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