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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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15 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

At least that chart is dry. 
 

Lots of “boredom” needed around here with months of soaking. 

That sort of chart would be more tolerable than being under the constant influence of Atlantic Lows and the frequent wet weather. High Pressure being a personal second best option outside of the snowy weather in Winter. In that regard, the ECMWF isn’t much of a disaster. (Not that it ever was a terrible run, but I appreciate some might disagree). 

Just now, Ravelin said:

Is the ECM 'flattening the high' or is the pattern still developing? 

ECH1-216.GIF?28-0 ECH1-240.GIF?28-0

Why don't we wait and see, is it that difficult just to wait for another 12hrs?

I think it is worth being patient and continuing to see how the patterns evolves. Chart viewing can be annoyingly so addictive sometimes lol. 

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Well...there is at least some action perturbed but what where and when to be decided. I'd say just follow the meto...no surprise they put a bit of wintryness in their forecast today and then it (potentially) shows up in the models...I'll have whatever they are having!

Hoping this high can build into the right place for now....but I'm liking the options!

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Glad I didnt say ciao to winter. Looks like we have another bite at the cherry if only a passing taste.  

Screenshot_20200128-194118_Meteociel.jpg

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Evening all ?

Well, I'm none the wiser. A brief milder interlude over the weekend but next week still looking very much up for grabs.

The build of HP midweek next week teases with a brief but quite potent N'ly before toppling but the next build, at least according to GFS OP, sets up a brief Scandinavian HP before the northern arm takes over and the Atlantic roars back for mid month.

12Z ECM OP ends very anticyclonic while GFS 12Z Control ends very zonal with a classic Bartlett. 

If you want some eye candy, the CFS monthly looks more than interesting for late Feb into early March but of course the usual caveats apply...

On the less inspiring side, the strat split continues to look elusive but it does seem likely one warming will quickly be followed by another so weakening and displacement may be on the cards. I'm also less enthused looking at the GEFS - only a couple I'd describe as cold but a good split between mild anticyclonic and mild Atlantic-dominated.

I'm still not expecting anything cold before the end of February apart from the odd day here and there of PM air - obviously, cold that late doesn't work for some on here but it can still deliver snow as we all know. Plenty of time left...

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Well the GFS op may have been a slight outlier, but perhaps the ECM op was a little progressive with temps by the later stages... A respectable mean on the whole, with plenty of colder members and the mean remaining lower than the op. 

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM0-216.gif

birmingham_ecmsd850.png

london_ecmsd850.png

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I like the look of the GFS 12z ens, the mean is looking decidedly cold there by D7, also the op is almost a mild outlier by the end of the run, most members in fact staying cold but with a wide envelope of options from from 2/3c to -8/9c .

 

graphe_ens3.png

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Models showing further swings from something more 'wintry' to mild and back to 'wintry'. Developments hinge on events out of NE USA seaboard, models showing an amplified flow early next week, high pressure ridging through mid atlantic, allowing for a northerly flow. There is good agreement on this, 144 hrs, thereafter as expected differences occur. ECM keener on flattening the high, GFS wants to bring in a colder NE flow, with low heights to the south.

 

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For reference UKMO 168 isnt raw ukmo output tonight - so no clue there.

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The models still playing around with different solutions regarding that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic which effects the timing of when the colder air heads se .

The GFS 12hrs evolution does extend the cold and brings in a Scandi high and then possible battleground snow scenario but that relies on the trigger shortwave behaving itself .

The ECM op isn’t really interested , although it hints at some retrogression of the high you’d need more amplitude upstream to deliver another northerly .

Theres low confidence on what happens post northerly given they’re both on a different page so more runs needed .

 

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

For reference UKMO 168 isnt raw ukmo output tonight - so no clue there.

thank  god someone  flagged this..

it's a beta max-perception. 

and even that 1-below par, of the raws! 

 

@nice1  Steve 

Edited by tight isobar
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I'm coming  at ya.   .and 4 starter's  here are the temperature progs! !

@latest2! !

temp4.png

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eps  12th 500. .

I need not post  other stamps. .

for fear  of medicinal  needs of those whom  fail -don't  want what is evolving! !!!

 

 

chuck the block up. ..

and it's a nil -angle of  shut! !!!

 

*all roads. .....really  do lead  to OUTBREAK *....

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_8.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9 (1).png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_5.png

Edited by tight isobar
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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

For reference UKMO 168 isnt raw ukmo output tonight - so no clue there.

How can it be the UKMO 168 then Steve?

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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How can it be the UKMO 168 then Steve?

the ukmo  is of  top 3...verification. .

yet @+144...=168. .

oddly  it's tosh! !!

the ukmo  raw imo  is great. ..but not after +96. .

I'll  try to jump  on what I'm saying. ..by data  holds! !!!

I'll  post..

in short term -window  plots/verification. .

it's  a mash between  the raws. ..

 

yet the 'American '...GFS. ..

rains supreme  ..'overall '..

@seasonal  @veverification. [email protected]

 

 

edit  .with the gem Cmc-also of note

Edited by tight isobar
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28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How can it be the UKMO 168 then Steve?

I remember Ian F used to comment on the UKMO raw as UKMO-GM

On the link we use I saw its the UKMO-UM

but irrespective of this the day 6 doesnt tally with the Meteocial UKMO day 6.

Look

UM v GM

0C201A19-CDDC-4B6A-8F66-AAB4CBDD0381.thumb.png.f0853df517b084eb65028e5577b452f6.png8EFD8940-172C-4F98-ACF4-494D4F1FCA95.thumb.png.3a404ac5f948d81bb4bec38a925b0aba.png

 

*** THATS SHOWING 27/01 thats why ***

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I remember Ian F used to comment on the UKMO raw as UKMO-GM

On the link we use I saw its the UKMO-UM

but irrespective of this the day 6 doesnt tally with the Meteocial UKMO day 6.

Look

UM v GM

 

 

*** THATS SHOWING 27/01 thats why ***

 

Thanks.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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38 minutes ago, That ECM said:

This is how I view your posts. Like an enquisitive dog with my head going from side to side??? I like them tho??

34B1E94E-145D-40DE-82D7-7D38E0AA3E5B.jpeg

I’m glad I’m not the only one.  

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Icon 18z same as 12z flatter!!

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z is absolute garbage.

Yep I bloody give up . 

ED660D50-2464-4D01-BC65-5B3FFEDA1FEA.png

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slowwww. ..down. .

we've  got a well sourced  high pressure  clump. .against  a rush of overwhelming  cold river. ...

it's merely taking aim! !!

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z is absolute garbage.

Thought so considering lack of posts!!and also once we see those lows going over the top its very hard to amplify things once again!!and thats the reason why my post was the way it was this morning!!models flatten out once it comes into medium range!!story of the winter!!

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