Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Really?

Looks poor from where i'm sitting Feb?

Ridge building on a mean chart - that is 240 - remember we are weeks away from any real action so you are not going to see many E'lies just yet at 240 even on a 50 member suite.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

What does that mean Steve?

Sorry if im being a thicko!!

Got it now - he has changed the year to 87 - edited for accuracy!

[SMU]

I was just taking a trip down memory lane to the start of the historic Winter 1947 -

Look how flat the ridge was to start with coming out of the atlantic!

[Allseasons-Si]

15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I was just taking a trip down memory lane to the start of the historic Winter 1947 -

Look how flat the ridge was to start with coming out of the atlantic!

Thanks Steve

I don't want to exploit historic data on this thread but that ridge developed within two days

then this a week later

for clarity purposes it just shows you how quick things can develop and for people not to right off the rest of Jan and/or winter 

lets see how the 18z turns out

 

 

[Mike Poole]

Hi folks, precious little for those of a cold persuasion to get their teeth into recently, maybe tentative signs that things are about to change - a bit:

• SST plot shows decline in the +IOD, here now v last month, now looks neutral:

• Im sure those in Australia would be glad to see the back of it more than us!  
• This a factor in allowing progression of a MJO into phase 7 but quickly declining, so we go again, ECM ens suggest:

• Really need to see the runs with more amplitude verify here, but this is a developing story, so we will see if future runs can put us into 7 at reasonable amplitude in a couple of weeks time.
• CFS showing AAM tending to rise above the water line, so to speak, on same timescale, suggesting increased amplification.

• Stratosphere, well it's a dead duck on modelling at the moment, but this might change.  Stratobserve ellipses charts for T240 and T384 on 0z GFS, the T384 is staring down the barrel of a loaded strat vortex gun, not good, so let's hope one of the other factors rescues us from this towards the end of Jan...

Definitely some sign of increasing amplification in the models today, as have been posted by others...best bet for cold prior to Spring seems to be the next MJO wave having some teeth....here's hoping...we will see...

[feb1991blizzard]

Big change from 12z GFS to 18 at 192 - WAA more neutrally aligned.

[Tim Bland]

18z Vs 12z ...should be on board the Scandi high train by tomorrow

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, lovely snap off chunk of vortex, this run could still be a stonker yet.

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs has some catching up to do to catch the gem but plenty of time for that

assuming the gem is right of cause but the 18z is better than the 12z. 

[Timmytour]

36 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Thanks Steve

I don't want to exploit historic data on this thread but that ridge developed within two days

then this a week later

for clarity purposes it just shows you how quick things can develop and for people not to right off the rest of Jan and/or winter 

lets see how the 18z turns out

 

 

I mentioned 1947 the other day and it regularly gets trotted out when a winter has been as disappointing as it has been this season.

 

But much I would like to imagine it happens, I think the chances are as remote as they can be. One thing that happened during 1946/47 was periods of cold weather with easterlies. So the weather that winter was following a regular pattern until a tipping point was reached and it flipped into the sustainable easterly we ended up with.

For me the default this winter is not one of easterlies but instead has been dominated by any modelled height rises being flattened out before easterlies can get established.

Much as next week will see temperatures commensurate with the third week of Januarry 1947, I expect the remainder of January to be more like 2014

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

The 18z GEFS are a stonker, there are some Easterlies (albeit dry anticyclonic ones) as early as 204.

Edited January 3, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

7/20 Easterlies by 300 and about half the suite gave transformed the MLB into a HLB.

Mean SE flow by 318.

Edited January 3, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Purga]

A trigger LP running the jet from the North Sea SE - maybe - to 'open the door'....

[Mike Poole]

JMA goes for the Scandi high, T264:

Position up for grabs I expect, but the increasing signal for something involving heights into Scandi seems to have at least some substance, we will see....

 

[Purga]

40 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I mentioned 1947 the other day and it regularly gets trotted out when a winter has been as disappointing as it has been this season.

 

But much I would like to imagine it happens, I think the chances are as remote as they can be. One thing that happened during 1946/47 was periods of cold weather with easterlies. So the weather that winter was following a regular pattern until a tipping point was reached and it flipped into the sustainable easterly we ended up with.

For me the default this winter is not one of easterlies but instead has been dominated by any modelled height rises being flattened out before easterlies can get established.

Much as next week will see temperatures commensurate with the third week of Januarry 1947, I expect the remainder of January to be more like 2014

 

 

There was an analogous situation in 1947 however. There was a lot of very cold air 'bottled up' in the Arctic which gave record cold to Alaska and northern Canada, in fact the all time N American record low temp occurred at Snag, -62.8C on 3rd Feb 1947. This winter has seen the same type of situation with near record cold in that area. I'm not saying it's necessarily going to follow suit but the analog is interesting - maybe.

[snowray]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

JMA goes for the Scandi high, T264:

Position up for grabs I expect, but the increasing signal for something involving heights into Scandi seems to have at least some substance, we will see....

 

Tomorrow's runs could be very interesting viewing, upgrades on the cards? Well we certainly deserve them after all this agony.

GFS mean anom at T300, 18z and 12z, both looking good.

 

 

Edited January 3, 2020 by snowray

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 Everybody stay calm the next round on the winter roller coaster may be coming up  Of course not every ensemble suite will have ideal positioning of the higher pressure and no doubt  those with the half empty glasses will write it off ASAP but lets see where this goes.         

 

[Allseasons-Si]

25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

7/20 Easterlies by 300 and about half the suite gave transformed the MLB into a HLB.

Mean SE flow by 318.

Even by 384 the mean is pretty good

take a punch at these mr pv,you will not win...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Even by 384 the mean is pretty good

 

take a punch at these mr pv,you will not win...

 

Yes, you wouldn't say that any of those 21 couldn't go on to achieve a HLB.

[Allseasons-Si]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, you wouldn't say that any of those 21 couldn't go on to achieve a HLB.

Absolutely Feb

19 of the 20 ens members doesn't break through that block at day 16,that's good odds if i dare say so my self...

only P12 does

at least we don't have a 0c isotherm flat lining like the 12z,there is more colder members in there

 

now where is my drink!

Edited January 4, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[MildCarlilse]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

I was just taking a trip down memory lane to the start of the historic Winter 1947 -

Look how flat the ridge was to start with coming out of the atlantic!

Can these models be believed? Who knows what the 850’s looked liked then.Can they be verified? 

[SLEETY]

Finally signs of a change in the weather, as we head towards mid-month.

Will winter actually start then? let's hope we see the models pick up in the change to a much colder outlook, predicted by some weather experts, for the 2nd half of winter. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Overnight suites so far not as promising.

[IDO]

Still no sign of the GFS op going the Scandi high route and whilst that is not aboard the ensembles are just noise. The GFS 0z Control and mean all suggest mid-lat high at best:

 GEM D10>> 

As expected, the GEM, usually a day behind the curve adjusts towards the mean significantly. That will probably move further in that direction with runs. 

Looking at the GEFS a UK high is the main cluster, a bit further north than the op at D16:

  MEAN T850s at D16: 

What I have been seeing is a strong tPV and I suspect that is why any HLB'ing will face a painfully hard journey to establish without tropical forcing. I doubt we will see anything interesting in January. The cold remains stubbornly away from the UK as the above mean suggests. A frost would be significant let alone snow for us down south!

Fingers crossed that a flip happens as I suspect the next 16-days will not proffer any sustained cold and wintry weather from what is currently modelled.

Edited January 4, 2020 by IDO

[jules216]

@IDO Same here,this Scandi high route that has been flying around social media is a forlorn hope of few isolated outputs which will eventually de-amplify closer to 0h and it will end up being a classic Euro high that will kill most of January. This is even worse then amplified azores high. We had this talk in early December how good down the line is to have this Euro high(wave2). All it did was to kill winter in December in Europe, now its poised to kill winter in Europe in January. What is the point in SSW if it happens in February and all it brings is unwanted cold spring.