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Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020

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32 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I barely get clipped on the above!

Squeaky bum time for me looking at that and the latest ECM, GFS and Met Office fax chart.

9AAFAC81-5D4D-4229-A4C2-74B1B8C8577B.thumb.png.1b9391f8c5a98352d536d79087224cb0.png
 

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Definitely a shift further South and East than previously!

Very interesting late night/early morning radar viewing ahead! (Hoping the Euro4 has called it from IMBY point of view! ?)

The 06z GFS barely clips me so you're totally stuffed ?

You're sorted now, not even in the warning area:

353618859_Screenshot_20200127-102618_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.f997eaccae46a2a944de816c3de25146.jpg

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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1 minute ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The 06z GFS barely clips me so you're totally stuffed ?

Stuffings all round in the east.  Caithness will be lucky to see sleet. Having said that, they're a snow-hating lot around here....

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22 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The 06z GFS barely clips me so you're totally stuffed ?

You're sorted now, not even in the warning area:

353618859_Screenshot_20200127-102618_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.f997eaccae46a2a944de816c3de25146.jpg

???

Indeed - game on for me now! 5cm at sea level guaranteed! ?

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Edited by Mr Frost
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2 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

 

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Those charts show the Kirkcaldy snow shield perfectly ? Met office has heavy rain followed by light snow and BBC has sleet followed by snow for here ? looking at the short range models the temps and dew points look like they will be fine it's just getting the positioning of the precip that's the problem, I will wait til later to see if I fancy trying to do a snow risk map ? 

 

 

snow warning issued including here ? it must be wrong ? "An area of sleet and snow is likely to move eastwards overnight, followed by a few wintry showers. Surfaces then freezing, leading to icy stretches. There is a small chance that up to 5 cm of snow could fall down to sea level. Snow over high ground is much more likely, with 5-10 cm above 250 m and as much as 15 cm above 350 m."

Aye a will believe that when a see it...

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Looks like lack of PPN may be the issue in these parts tonight! 

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Sleet/Hail here at the moment 

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Didn’t think we were due any snow until tonight but it’s currently lightly snowing here. 

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15 minutes ago, mardatha said:

I've got snaw!! Turned really dark then down it came! Still coming but very light.

Awesome.

Frost this morning at fort SS, with a cm or so covering up Soutra on the way tae work.

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A couple of light wintry showers have made it through to here this morning. Sunny atm. and with the sunshine temp has crept up to 4C.

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3 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Witnessed actual falling heavy snow heading over Tillyfourie en'-oute to Inverurie. Not going to lie, it actually put a smile on my face?

I probably drove through the same shower, at about 8am? Temps of 1 or 2C meant a frost on car windscreen, with rain in Alford that changed to wet snow as it got heavier around tillyfourie. Currently bright and cool in Inverurie. 

I'm just inside a yellow Ice and Snow warning for tonight, but not holding out hope of anything more than a dusting. 

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Lovely sunny afternoon near Wick. Little fluffy clouds at 2C.

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image.thumb.png.e409f632962a844a37ee69f37e690fd1.png

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Quite. One of my favourite tracks, soundtrack to many happy times.

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Latest wrf nmm 2km run coming out now and key issue (potential spoiler) as we have seen before in the past when it is lowering pressure in the centre of the lower pressure the 850 temps are always slightly warmer (mild sector) and this on the wrf nmm pretty much tracks over here meaning rain then possible back edge snow 

image.thumb.png.93433ea598ff7d4b10e007c9268a2035.png < lower pressure nmm_uk1-42-14-3.thumb.png.12a7a85c3c8275a22e01cd7df97572a8.png rain / sleet more likely nearest centre of lower pressure (here, Kirkcaldy a good example unfortunately ?)  however as the low moves E / NE more likely to be snow on back edge  anim_pjp5.thumb.gif.ecc07c6995ffd8127cfa75ef2671da43.gifnmm_uk1-45-20-3.thumb.png.351e4a5157bf84ccf3b253c214ec408e.png  

so the exact track of that lower pressure will be key, could well be a few surprises but on the other hand one slight shift and it could be disappointment, as it is so complex I am not even going to try and attempt a snow risk map ? 

Good luck all and fingers crossed we can all see a bit of snaw.

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On 20/01/2020 at 13:21, Sceptical said:

Noticed a massive flock of geese in the vale of Alford around 0930. I've lived here since 2004 and have never seen geese in these numbers before - a genuine WTF moment!

Given the bright conditions and distance between the geese and myself, a rough estimate of numbers could be made. I reckon well over a thousand and that's a conservative figure.

The geese were circling over an area as opposed to following their usual flight paths - unusual behaviour. Possibly an early departure from their wintering grounds?

Definitely a sight to behold.

Currently 9.5C and wall to wall sunshine.

 

 

 

Just a quick update to the above.

The geese and swans haven't been sighted locally in over a week.I suspect that the mild temperatures have prompted an early departure. 

Edited by Sceptical
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