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Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020


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Some more pics from this morning in the Lomond Hills. Just the most sublime colours at sunrise. We had 12cm this morning, sunny all day except for a slight freshening up in the afternoon, now -0.7C an

Standing an impressive 5ft 5in tall - the kids have done well with limited resources ?

The snow still hasn't come to anything beyond a slushy mess at the house so we went to the snow. At the small car park at the top of Glen Ogle it was proper snow with a few inches on the ground. By th

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Morning all

Lovely day yesterday - sunny and a high of 21C. (Same expected today)

Sunset last night.

CF8529AA-E097-4F80-AE47-C77F474CBBC0.thumb.jpeg.386c134c0d45f082b904ccb25db2bab3.jpeg
 

Risk of a few isolated showers/thunderstorms creeping into Southern Scotland overnight.

Models/charts flapping about as usual with regards to further ahead but a few folk in here would bank these!

Monday early afternoon:

BD228B84-5E5D-4332-A76F-4489DDEA4EED.thumb.png.49594ccb0cad37e4b38c4c1314dc5766.png
 

Monday night:

CAD2FBB9-65AC-40C8-95DB-908B66B496A8.thumb.png.c387583014bd6cbe59ac5be315872bf0.png

Tuesday early morning:
FF854AEA-FB7B-4694-8B42-F3C421BF9489.thumb.png.e9b888ad3ad22bff3ffeefc2916efd7e.png
 

All the above subject to change of course - next run will no doubt be completely different. 😄

Good to see the risk is there though!

Exciting week coming up and plenty of nice weather about - not bad at all.

All the best.

Edit: F8B85AEC-B573-4E36-84D5-BC75FA1E9CE0.thumb.png.75fa64a6acc83bfa7bee8f47138db571.png


😮

Issued: 10:50 (UTC+1) on Sun 9 Aug 2020

Areas of thunderstorms are increasingly likely to develop over the the UK during Monday and move north or north-westwards to affect parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland through the afternoon and evening. Whilst the most intense thunderstorms, in some instances associated with large hail, will most probably be those triggered by the high temperatures of the day over England and Wales, other areas of storms producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and strong gusty winds could move north to affect Scotland and Northern Ireland during the afternoon and evening. Where the storms occur, rainfall totals of 30-40 mm could fall in an hour, with some locations potentially receiving 60-80 mm in 3 hours, although these will be fairly isolated.

Edited by Mr Frost
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Sounds like some lovely weather around Scotland - maybe away from the north and east coasts. 

I recorded lowest nighttime temp of 22oC Friday into Saturday after a 36oC day. Not nice. 

I think some good chances of storms around the region going into the week as @Mr Frost has detailed so well. Good luck on the storm chasing folks 

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More thin high cloud around today and the breeze has got up but it's lovely. Breeze making the weather bearable. All in all a superb weekend. Next week well we will see ;)

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4 hours ago, Stormeh said:

Just back from a nice few days up in the Highlands. We were very lucky with the weather 🙂

 

C13D194D-EC22-4495-BF84-953E1D1B2F56.thumb.jpeg.0db838b6134643b3ff4e42cf136d40a5.jpeg82D3A309-1D41-4440-99EE-1ECB7419D3AC.thumb.jpeg.dafb1d661c4b3e664c5f59481a608c67.jpegCF7C9E30-B091-4864-A6C1-32BB1ACB60D2.thumb.jpeg.9af23b2af0a664e5135956f3e953b0c1.jpegD6099A7F-17AF-4469-9891-8608E882B71C.thumb.jpeg.7cc9d0078142cdbac8aaf52f7c687c56.jpeg76560EB4-C9FF-4E2A-9FBB-1FDA0FDA167F.thumb.jpeg.7413de8db5c7000a522b682997dc7996.jpeg59B57498-40A6-4BCE-AB3E-F291269AE863.thumb.jpeg.d07e3f2b4dd7148e26760de78a6dbc1e.jpeg7504A851-BF3E-4E0D-A42C-DCB83184DA3E.thumb.jpeg.0faa2f3997b40cb918d626d2f6aaa321.jpegDD0EF3A6-FD90-4563-BD72-6B1A15B1EF4F.thumb.jpeg.b46f9c8608d26a18437763a1cbdd408f.jpeg1435323C-B40B-4B74-8ED6-54650F031170.thumb.jpeg.3538f230023e1eee6c5209d74a43b44f.jpeg5719207E-3F0C-4E26-AD79-A2D51FBF524D.thumb.jpeg.6720f4351654f2f9514de3b013e7ac2a.jpeg85EEEBDA-782E-4769-BB56-B40CAE645878.thumb.jpeg.e369946c46951bd4ed613c5ceb8e9845.jpeg
 

Wow - simply stunning. Thank you for sharing. These are amazing! 

Edited by Coopsy
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Some very talented photographers in this group!

I’m off to Bathgate to spend a few days with my daughter so what will be my chances of catching a thunderstorm?

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2 hours ago, Sanserit said:

Some very talented photographers in this group!

I’m off to Bathgate to spend a few days with my daughter so what will be my chances of catching a thunderstorm?

 

2 hours ago, mardatha said:

Any thunder lightning flooding for me here?

The best thing to do really will be keeping an eye on the radar and 

image?type=visual&region=eu
EN.SAT24.COM

Weather Europe, Satellite Weather Europe, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Europe - SAT24.com

Really anywhere throughout Scotland could catch some storms at some point through this week with troughs and fronts moving around in the unstable atmosphere and some massive amounts of CAPE, I’m thinking anywhere that does get storms could be some big lightning producers 🤞 maybe tonight / overnight something for u finally @Mr Frost 😅😀

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13 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

The best thing to do really will be keeping an eye on the radar and 

image?type=visual&region=eu
EN.SAT24.COM

Weather Europe, Satellite Weather Europe, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Europe - SAT24.com

Really anywhere throughout Scotland could catch some storms at some point through this week with troughs and fronts moving around in the unstable atmosphere and some massive amounts of CAPE, I’m thinking anywhere that does get storms could be some big lightning producers 🤞 maybe tonight / overnight something for u finally @Mr Frost 😅😀

Yes - fell asleep just before the last two overnight thunderstorm events to my SW/W! Not happening this time! Better prepared. 😁
Daytime wise has been slim pickings around these parts this Summer so far!

Met Office current warning:

D28F3255-4840-4570-8203-85BD8FBF6F4C.thumb.png.813f2491447017d191686d7be0428c57.png

As you say it’s all about the old radar/sat/sky watching now.

Models still flapping about for tonight - could be further West, East or not even happen at all! The joy of thunderstorms! 

605A9641-EFBA-416F-AC9B-60C261D4A6CF.thumb.png.7256506e22de4dbc35bbc25cab86d8a7.pngC51F5459-21C0-48C7-9C42-A7A3DED291CD.thumb.png.0838a22738452981b2734c7939dc403d.png58FB5A81-0278-4E9F-821E-5B26261E1772.thumb.png.8dbb399e6d07facec67881cdb561ce67.png
 

Lively down South at the moment:

B248E4C4-46B8-4B1C-AED8-22B74DBFADBA.thumb.png.97fb03d339898024325ab7d67a5b8180.png
 

Best of luck everyone - hopefully we see some action! (Those who want storms of course)

All the best.

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16 minutes ago, mardatha said:

Kirkcaldy - what is CAPE?

cc270503_0.gif
WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential

These are very high amounts through this week for UK standards, a regular thundery shower u would probably have a couple of hundred and for our typical thunderstorms maybe somewhere around 500-1000 but some areas even into Scotland could see 2000+ so lots of energy for big storms but of course that isn’t the only ingredient required u also need a trigger like troughs or fronts which will be around this week it’s pinpointing areas which is needle in haystack territory 😆😂 0C8C0C41-1F20-45B6-BBDC-C131EA2BB182.thumb.png.04db37c22e57c6c0bbaec634b9fc07eb.png8842B1C2-DC6A-4FFB-9E01-B57CD81F80A2.thumb.png.06ba2bb4aa2360b632896acdb5f35c55.png

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
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Could be a direct hit down here later on. I love storms but sadly the animals do not so bit of a double edged sword. 
 

Very muggy today, already approaching 22c 

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Beautiful weekend weatherwise, fortunately tying in with a couple of nights away before schools are back. I love a storm, but got to be honest having a load of tomatoes, peppers and corn in the back garden struggling to ripen with the lack of sun and wet ground over the last 6 weeks means I'm hoping they skip me on this occasion 😄

IMG_20200808_140225.jpg

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1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
cc270503_0.gif
WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential

These are very high amounts through this week for UK standards, a regular thundery shower u would probably have a couple of hundred and for our typical thunderstorms maybe somewhere around 500-1000 but some areas even into Scotland could see 2000+ so lots of energy for big storms but of course that isn’t the only ingredient required u also need a trigger like troughs or fronts which will be around this week it’s pinpointing areas which is needle in haystack territory 😆😂 0C8C0C41-1F20-45B6-BBDC-C131EA2BB182.thumb.png.04db37c22e57c6c0bbaec634b9fc07eb.png8842B1C2-DC6A-4FFB-9E01-B57CD81F80A2.thumb.png.06ba2bb4aa2360b632896acdb5f35c55.png

Great explanation. Thanks. Is there a correlation between a minimum CAPE value and when tornados might be present. Or does it not work like that? 

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3 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Great explanation. Thanks. Is there a correlation between a minimum CAPE value and when tornados might be present. Or does it not work like that? 

For the tornadic side of things I usually look at the vorticity charts and my post from last night though the latest runs have unsurprisingly changed .. 

 

18 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The runs will continue to chop and change but latest wrf nmm 2km develops a *likely* supercell tomorrow night across Wales, the reason I am saying that rather than just a regular thunderstorm is looking through all the parameters the atmosphere looks conducive but obviously never a guarantee so radar and satellite will be best bets as always 523F7C74-4A4C-44CA-B8C4-530E153795F0.thumb.gif.4de394041d056413b4210d6d6bf0d840.gif4A84EF55-E4EE-4729-8418-386CDE06E7CC.thumb.gif.1a172d6e76e0a1cf849227286dbcbfd1.gifECBC85D4-21BB-4660-B4D3-37B70406035A.thumb.gif.4845ef859737a2d70be2a72488dde2c7.gif72188355-9A89-4F91-A46B-D3C1C45FB2A8.thumb.jpeg.a412bfe8085e18c8446481f82e6e3f36.jpegC5A8DEAF-DED8-479C-9F86-71CE9844525C.thumb.jpeg.f815c2db213cd7ac6f8d78518091e4b1.jpegF0105DAC-036A-492E-BBA0-E89067A5205D.thumb.gif.fafa446ddc33e2efe92bf50f7118d092.gifEDE34AF1-3A95-4925-A281-A2622CC34DA1.thumb.gif.0c3bbe617b7be853a78a4ab66763695e.gif

u could clearly see the area for the likely supercell and the soundings around that area still supporting that threat 202233A6-FE55-49F5-B984-A07FF71B0A0C.thumb.png.5e0792d606cd1c0ad9936cf9663e3392.png

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Looks like a wee thin line of showers heading up from the south. Wonder if they get electrified.............

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21 minutes ago, NUT said:

Looks like a wee thin line of showers heading up from the south. Wonder if they get electrified.............

Convective weather have expanded the slight risk to cover most of southern Scotland the central belt and Western scotland - fingers 🤞 

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