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Gray-Wolf

Climate change 2020; events/incidents

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As we look to enter 2020 with some serious issues facing both the developed ,& developing, World I thought it might prove useful (for some?) to draw together media reports of climate events as they present through 2020?

Maybe 2020 will endow the world with a 'climate vision' that stirs them into international meaningful action?

A 2020 vision of climate to come you might say?

So to kick us off as 2019 draws to a close here's Moscow;

f-moscow-a-20191220-870x489.jpg
WWW.JAPANTIMES.CO.JP

Residents of Moscow are wondering where winter has gone as the highest December temperatures in 133 years deprive the Russian capital of its customary cove

 

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Happy New Year, Ian; and, what a great topic, for it!:oldgood:

I've been doing some boning-up, on the subject of dissipative oscillators, and have come to the conclusion that Earth's global climate-system is built on nothing-else...?🤔So, my question would be: how (once the MJO, QBO and ENSO et. al. start to become overwhelmed, by ever-increasing energy-input) will our planet respond?

My guess would be, via 'new' smaller-scale oscillations springing up around the tropics...Because Nature, unlike human endeavor, doesn't faff about: it simply takes the easiest route...

What's more, it looks like Southern Europe's Springtime warm up might well be in for another 'kick start', next year?:unsure2:

 

Edited by General Cluster

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4000.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Oceans are clearest measure of climate crisis as they absorb 90% of heat trapped by greenhouse gases

Since 2014 the Pacific has been in a natural phase that augments AGW heating. This is coupled by the headlong charge by China to introduce scrubbing technologies to reduce their pollution. The scrubbing out of sulphates and carbon particulates mean all area downwind will see their 'dimming' by such pollutants fall and so more heating of ocean/land surfaces occuring

Eventually that absorbed heat will heat the air column above.......

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8 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:
4000.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Oceans are clearest measure of climate crisis as they absorb 90% of heat trapped by greenhouse gases

Since 2014 the Pacific has been in a natural phase that augments AGW heating. This is coupled by the headlong charge by China to introduce scrubbing technologies to reduce their pollution. The scrubbing out of sulphates and carbon particulates mean all area downwind will see their 'dimming' by such pollutants fall and so more heating of ocean/land surfaces occuring

Eventually that absorbed heat will heat the air column above.......

Trying, but we are all still doomed then.

Oh well.

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30 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Trying, but we are all still doomed then.

Oh well.

Zillions of zeta joules, mean exactly 0.14C in 60 years.

That's 400 years for a 1C rise.

A bit of perspective required on these doomed times?

MIA

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sample.png
EARTH.NULLSCHOOL.NET

See current wind, weather, ocean, and pollution conditions, as forecast by supercomputers, on an interactive animated map. Updated every three hours.

So we currently have the southern hemisphere providing a limb of the sub Tropical Jet? As for the definition of the polar/sub tropical Jets???

To my untrained eye much of our hemisphere just has one Jet splitting the hemisphere in two....

I'd rather hope that the upper winds coming from south of the equator are above ( and not crossing over?) the ITCZ? That'd be too weird!

Though, a couple of years back, we did see a streamer of the polar Jet cross the equator and end up over S. Africa?

So I wonder again how fast a flip from our current 3 cell system, to a single cell hemisphere ( with 'Jet Streaks'), would take to occur/stabilize?

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13 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Zillions of zeta joules, mean exactly 0.14C in 60 years.

That's 400 years for a 1C rise.

A bit of perspective required on these doomed times?

MIA

Yet from another perspective, that 250 zeta joules represents over 90% of all human induced warming. The other measly few % have caused global air temperatures to rise over 1C and melted billions of tonnes of glacial ice.

What happens if the oceans stop absorbing as much heat?

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One paper at a time...

The one referred to above and to which I responded, is spreading doom about the Oceans.

Do you want to turn this thread into a general discussion on CC?

Happy to oblige if you do...

MIA

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Interesting reference to "absorbing as much heat".

Last night watched a Ben Fogle programme; he was in Siberia at a Russian scientist's home. The Russian guy is felling trees in vast quantities because the forests are creating a thaw of permafrost, even in their Summer months. This leads to a potentially dangerous release of toxic, heat inducing gases, which he claims will add to Earth's warming climate. He wants to return the Siberian wastelands to grass. Grass veg is lighter and, apparently, reflects more of the light and sun; this, he believes, will eventually protect the permafrost from thawing.

Felling of trees, forests, seems to fly in the face of climate change scientists. Interesting stuff.

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14 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

One paper at a time...

The one referred to above and to which I responded, is spreading doom about the Oceans.

Do you want to turn this thread into a general discussion on CC?

Happy to oblige if you do...

MIA

We're both referring to the same article, MIA! If you read it you'll see it's not spreading doom, as you so boldly and incorrectly exclaim. It's about a new paper with some stats and commentary from actual experts.

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15 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Interesting reference to "absorbing as much heat".

Last night watched a Ben Fogle programme; he was in Siberia at a Russian scientist's home. The Russian guy is felling trees in vast quantities because the forests are creating a thaw of permafrost, even in their Summer months. This leads to a potentially dangerous release of toxic, heat inducing gases, which he claims will add to Earth's warming climate. He wants to return the Siberian wastelands to grass. Grass veg is lighter and, apparently, reflects more of the light and sun; this, he believes, will eventually protect the permafrost from thawing.

Felling of trees, forests, seems to fly in the face of climate change scientists. Interesting stuff.

Very interesting. The rate of growth in Siberia is many times slower, for lets say Spruce type species than in North Western Europe. So the carbon capture of these trees is modest per tree as a function of time. Then of course you have to consider the vast vast numbers and size of the place. Wouldn't be surprised if you could get 5 times more Carbon captured per Hectare here than there, so would need 5 times less space, then you get the feedback from not releasing the gases, if his claim is true. So ideally we'd plant up what he cuts down over this side at perhaps 1 in 5 ratio and jobs a good one. 🙂 

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22 hours ago, Downburst said:

Very interesting. The rate of growth in Siberia is many times slower, for lets say Spruce type species than in North Western Europe. So the carbon capture of these trees is modest per tree as a function of time. Then of course you have to consider the vast vast numbers and size of the place. Wouldn't be surprised if you could get 5 times more Carbon captured per Hectare here than there, so would need 5 times less space, then you get the feedback from not releasing the gases, if his claim is true. So ideally we'd plant up what he cuts down over this side at perhaps 1 in 5 ratio and jobs a good one. 🙂 

Not that any of that adds up to a good reason for cutting down trees in Siberia, though?:cc_confused:

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We have to remember the tundra has dwarf trees already in place. What we seem to be seeing is these established trees enjoying the more benign conditions & putting on growth splurges bring in both albedo changes but also changes in snow cover/melt rates

With tree growth & lake emergence the surface of vast areas of the far north is changing rapidly altering its albedo so increasing the energy trapped & adding to the melt woes

But then if Hansen's numbers are correct we already have around 0.8c's worth of warming already to add onto the current warming once the 'global Dimming' masking it drops away?

This puts us well over the '+1.5c above pre industrial' which the Siberian Cave Stalactites tell us ends permafrost cover?

Talk about 'dead men walking the green mile'!

The carbon reserves this would bring back into the current Carbon Cycle dwarfs the amounts mankind has already placed into the atmosphere!

But for our 'dirty pollution' (sulphates and particulates) this rapid collapse would already be well under way. But then with China charging headlong into their scrubber technologies I believe we are already seeing some of that 'masked warming' coming out into the open?

Last years global temps, beaten only by a 'Super Nino' year, surely have us looking for where the heat in this 'La Nada' year came from but maybe it was there all along and just needed China to crack on with their 'clean air initiatives' for it to 'appear'?

If there is any truth in this then the year on year reduction in Asian dimming will not only allow more temp hikes to emerge but also allow more energy to hit the surface so warming us faster....

The Frozen North (& South??) is where we will see the most rapid and impacting changes from accelerated warming take place over the coming decade & one man's mission to chop down trees is as nothing compared to what we have set in motion there!

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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On 15/01/2020 at 15:29, Bristle boy said:

Interesting reference to "absorbing as much heat".

Last night watched a Ben Fogle programme; he was in Siberia at a Russian scientist's home. The Russian guy is felling trees in vast quantities because the forests are creating a thaw of permafrost, even in their Summer months. This leads to a potentially dangerous release of toxic, heat inducing gases, which he claims will add to Earth's warming climate. He wants to return the Siberian wastelands to grass. Grass veg is lighter and, apparently, reflects more of the light and sun; this, he believes, will eventually protect the permafrost from thawing.

Felling of trees, forests, seems to fly in the face of climate change scientists. Interesting stuff.

That really is grasping at any straw to deny climate change and the total emergency we are heading towards. The time to take ones head out of the sand and realise what we are and have done is here. I'm no activist,far from it, just take a look at the bigger picture.

Edited by markyo

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Just now, markyo said:

That really is grasping at any straw to deny climate change and the total emergency we are heading towards. The time to take ones head out of the sand and realise what we are and have done is here.

Hmm.....the guy featured on the prog is a Russian scientist. He is NOT denying climate change. In fact, he is saying climate change is affecting the permafrost. I think you are confused.

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5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Hmm.....the guy featured on the prog is a Russian scientist. He is NOT denying climate change. In fact, he is saying climate change is affecting the permafrost. I think you are confused.

Not confused at all,as i said look at the bigger picture,this is not a linear event. Reference Grey Wolfs post.

Edited by markyo

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34 minutes ago, markyo said:

Not confused at all,as i said look at the bigger picture,this is not a linear event. Reference Grey Wolfs post.

Sorry. Dont get your post, in ref to my orig.

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O know i have been warning of this since 07' but folk still do not appear to react with anything like the alarm it drives in me so here we go again!

One year soon we WILL see a Blue Ocean Event (B.O.E.) and the rapid changes this will drive.

Some of the folk looking into such predict an equivalence of 25yrs warming descending over a single year???

As noted above the impacts on the surrounding land masses (permafrost) only compound this with accelerated decomposition of their then thawed carbon cargo...

As we approach the end of the re-freeze folk should have a think around all they have seen occur across the Arctic over this past decade & how secure they feel as to its continuance into this decade?

We, as a planet, now seem to be running to the IPCC's latest warning of a decade remaining to make significant progress in reducing carbon emmisions to stand any chance of changing our current climate trajectory.

This warning does not include the impacts of a BOE occurring over that period nor any unforeseen additions from a permafrost consigned to melt out.

Though it is very good to see folk finally engaging in our climate woes it is sad that those with the more scary warnings are still dismissed as 'Doomers' or extremists

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Greta is in the house!  a suitable solar powered well insulated house obviously 

3500.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Rolling coverage of the first day of the World Economic Forum, including Donald Trump’s special address and Greta Thunberg’s panel session

 

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And here is an actual 'scientific' paper just released which seems to add to the GHG mixture, and debate  -

41558_2019_677_Fig1_HTML.png
WWW.NATURE.COM

Arctic warming is attributed to GHGs and feedbacks, but the specific contribution of ozone-depleting substances (ODS)—also potent GHGs—has never been...

Main paper  -

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0677-4

MIA

 

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A greenhouse gas 12,000 times more potent than carbon dioxide and generated mainly in China and India is being released at record levels, a new study claims.

The study led by the University of Bristol contradicts reports that the gas, called HFC-23, was almost eliminated from the atmosphere in 2017.

It is a particularly potent gas, with one tonne of its emissions equal to the release of more than 12,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide, study authors say.

Starting in 2015 India and China announced ambitious plans to end emissions in factories of the gas and in 2017 said they'd succeeded. 

This study, looking at the amount of HFC-23 in the atmosphere globally found that not only had it not been removed, but that levels had significantly increased. 

Scientists were expecting to see global emissions drop by almost 90% between 2015 and 2017 as a result of the India and China claims.

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8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

A greenhouse gas 12,000 times more potent than carbon dioxide and generated mainly in China and India is being released at record levels, a new study claims.

The study led by the University of Bristol contradicts reports that the gas, called HFC-23, was almost eliminated from the atmosphere in 2017.

It is a particularly potent gas, with one tonne of its emissions equal to the release of more than 12,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide, study authors say.

Starting in 2015 India and China announced ambitious plans to end emissions in factories of the gas and in 2017 said they'd succeeded. 

This study, looking at the amount of HFC-23 in the atmosphere globally found that not only had it not been removed, but that levels had significantly increased. 

Scientists were expecting to see global emissions drop by almost 90% between 2015 and 2017 as a result of the India and China claims.

BB...

They detected the 'source' of the escaping GFG's by satellite last autumn.

The company was identified, but was not announced.

They reported to the powers that be in China who claim that the production and use was (once again?) ceased.

Any chance of a reference to the Bristol report?

MIA  

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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17 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

BB...

They detected the 'source' of the escaping GFG's by satellite last autumn.

The company was identified, but was not announced.

They reported to the powers that be in China who claim that the production and use was (once again?) ceased.

Any chance of a reference to the Bristol report?

MIA  

Go to www.bristol.ac.uk/news

Cheers

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