January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

7.4c to the 8th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
3.1c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 7.4c to the 8th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

Brutal!

[seaside 60]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

By the 8th, all of these Januaries were running warmer than 7.0 after eight days ...

1992 __ 8.8

1916 __ 8.7

2013 __ 8.0

2007 __ 7.9

1950 __ 7.8

1932, 1975, 1983 __ 7.7

1921 __ 7.6

1855 __ 7.5

1873, 2005 __ 7.4

1902, 1957, 1999 __ 7.3

1869, 1937, 1976, 2012 __ 7.2

1782, 2014 __ 7.1

1948, 1989 __ 7.0

__________________________

That's a total of 23 out of 248 in the daily data period. 

Whats interesting on that chart is 2013.

The year it seemed to have snow on the ground here for ages late winter early spring, so there is still hope.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.1C, +2.6C above normal. Rainfall up to 16.5mm 20.4% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

Whats interesting on that chart is 2013.

The year it seemed to have snow on the ground here for ages late winter early spring, so there is still hope.

Also 1855 turned very cold in February, and 1950 had a cold spell later in January. So it can happen. But most of those months stayed rather mild or very mild. 

[Summer Sun]

7.5c to the 9th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[snowray]

Maybe, just maybe, Letucing Gutted has a chance of winning this one.

[Weather-history]

23 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

By the 8th, all of these Januaries were running warmer than 7.0 after eight days ...

1992 __ 8.8

 

Remember that month, the CET really dropped due to a frosty anticylonic spell. Ended up at 3.7

The only things going for that winter were the frosts and any rime from fog. Snow wise, it was up there with one of THE worst winters. One of the biggest killers of snow prospects is anticyclonicity and that was a pretty anticyclonic winter. 

[Shunter]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

7.5c to the 9th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

7.5C equals the warmest Jan CET ever recorded in 1916.

 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

[summer blizzard]

Gavin in the other realm projects 7.1C to the 18th.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.1C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall at 16.6mm 20.5% of the monthly average.

Should be a small drop for today unless tonight turns a lot milder.

[North-Easterly Blast]

8 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Remember that month, the CET really dropped due to a frosty anticylonic spell. Ended up at 3.7

The only things going for that winter were the frosts and any rime from fog. Snow wise, it was up there with one of THE worst winters. One of the biggest killers of snow prospects is anticyclonicity and that was a pretty anticyclonic winter. 

Yes the only cold weather in the 1991-92 winter came from "faux cold" and "Rex blocking" in a spell in the second week in December 1991 and a longer spell in the latter half of January 1992.  It saw next to nothing in the way of deep cold from proper cold synoptics (northerlies and easterlies), which is the explanation as to why it was a virtually snowless winter for most of the country.  As far as I am aware that winter, there were slight snowfalls for lucky parts of the country in mid February, when HP briefly built further north and allowed a weak airflow from the NW and N, and that was that.   The mid latitude faux cold blocking seen in 1992 returned during December 1992 as well, and gave a similar "faux cold" spell in the second half of Dec 1992 to that of Jan 1992.  1992-93 winter overall wasn't much better for snow for most of the country than 1991-92.

A more recent winter that saw some faux cold but next to nothing from proper cold synoptics was 2007-08, which had a spell like the above in mid Dec 2007 and again from about Feb 16th to 20th 2008.

[Don]

45 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Yes the only cold weather in the 1991-92 winter came from "faux cold" and "Rex blocking" in a spell in the second week in December 1991 

I remember that spell providing several ice days with impressive frosts and rime which almost mimicked snow.  However, that's the closest I got to snow during the winter of 1991/92.  Very disappointing, especially after the previous winter!

[summer blizzard]

The winter of 92 was actually a great example of bad luck for the UK (or good luck in 10). The ENSO, the QBO and the PDO were all exceptionally similar and there was even a similar blocking high which formed at high latitudes and yet instead of blocking around Greenland, the blocking occurred over western Canada.

[Roger J Smith]

That record mild January in 1916 was down to 7.6 by the 14th and never went outside the range 7.4 to 7.8 for a running mean to end of the month. January 2007 was running warmer than 8.0 as late as the 22nd before falling out of first place. I am not seeing any slam-dunk warmer than 1916 outcome in the charts, some of them look a bit cooler than 6 C at times, and I suspect Gavin in the other realm will be quite close with that estimate. Chances of LG winning are slim in part because several entrants chose to go higher than 7.5 themselves. Looking at the maps, I would say it would be a life or death struggle for 2020 to beat out 1916 but it could, more likely to finish in the 6 to 7 range perhaps. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield eased back to 7C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

7.3c to the 10th

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[summer blizzard]

How are we looking for the precipitation over the next week. It looks pretty dry afterwards.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP around 30 mm as of 18z then adding about 30 mm according to 18z GFS, to 22nd .. maps from there to end of run on 28th look rather dry (5 mm) but heavier rain approaching on final map of the run. All told, could be heading for 70-90 mm on those indications. 

[The PIT]

Sheffield down to 6.9C +2.4C above average. Rainfall 26.1mm 32.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

7.3c to the 11th

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I’ll go for 6.5c please for Feb.  Getting in early as a very mild one to come...Rainfall to be added

 

BFTP

Edited January 12, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

7.4c to the 12th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
3.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

7.4c to the 12th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
3.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

A UK High next week might allow the CET to sink back towards 6C, but if it gets flattened quickly then we will remain in record breaking territory for the January CET.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.9C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall 28.5mm 35.2% of the monthly average. A cool down looks to be on the offering on tonight's GFS but it could change it's mind again by the next run.

[SLEETY]

On 12/01/2020 at 11:24, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’ll go for 6.5c please for Feb.  Getting in early as a very mild one to come...Rainfall to be added

 

BFTP

What makes you think that, it's very unlikely to see January and Feb both above 6c,in the same year, has that even happened. 

So your obviously going for another Azores, euro trash dominated month then?