January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET Daily averages for January, with daily extremes and running CET extremes (1772-2019)

... the extremes are 1772-2019 ...[] below are for 1981-2010 []... these are again 1772-2019

DATE __ MAX (year) ____ MIN (year) ___ CET mean, cum  __ extremes of running CET 01-date

01 Jan ... 10.8 (1851) ... ... -5.9 (1820) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 10.8 (1851) ... -5.9 (1820)
02 Jan ... 10.4 (1948) ... ... -6.1 (1786) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 10.1 (1851) ... -5.9 (1786)
03 Jan ... 11.6 (1932) ... ... -7.7 (1795) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.7 (1917) ... -6.5 (1786)
04 Jan ... 10.5 (1948) ... ... -9.3 (1867) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.7 (1916) ... -6.0 (1795)
05 Jan ... 11.4 (1957) ... ... -6.5 (1789) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.3 (1916) ... -5.3 (1795)

06 Jan ... 10.3 (1898) ... ... -6.9 (1894) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.5 .... ....... 9.2 (1916) ... -4.6 (1795)
07 Jan ... 10.3 (1890) ... ... -7.7 (1841) ... ... 3.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 9.2 (1916) ... -3.9 (1795)
08 Jan ..... 9.9 (1858) ... ... -9.2 (1841) ... ... 4.0 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.8 (1992) ... -3.4 (1864)

09 Jan ... 10.7 (1998) ... ... -5.0 (1841) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.4 (1916) ... -2.8 (1795, 1864)
10 Jan ... 11.1 (1921) ... ... -6.7 (1814) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.3 (1916) ... -3.0 (1814)

11 Jan ... 10.1 (1990) ... ... -5.5 (1838) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.3 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814)
12 Jan ..... 9.9 (1976, 2007) .. -7.7 (1987) ....4.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)
13 Jan ... 10.0 (1796, 1873) .. -6.6 (1987) ....4.6 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.4 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)
14 Jan ... 10.2 (2011) ... ... -7.6 (1982) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
15 Jan ... 10.3 (1804) ... ... -8.5 (1820) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.1 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)

16 Jan ... 10.8 (1990) ... ... -7.7 (1881) ... ... 4.8 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.1 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)
17 Jan ... 10.2 (1908) ... ... -6.2 (1881) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)
18 Jan ... 10.0 (1828) ... ... -6.1 (1891) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
19 Jan ... 11.1 (1930) ... ... -8.9 (1823) ... ... 5.1 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814)
20 Jan ... 11.2 (2008) ... ...-11.9 (1838) ... ... 5.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)

21 Jan ... 10.8 (1796, 1898)..-8.1 (1881) ... ...5.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814)
22 Jan ... 10.3 (1878) ... ... -6.4 (1881) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.0 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
23 Jan ... 11.6 (1834) ... ... -8.4 (1963) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.7 (1976, 2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
24 Jan ... 10.6 (1782) ... ... -8.2 (1963) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.6 (1814)
25 Jan ... 11.6 (2016) ... ... -8.9 (1795) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.5 (1796, 1916) .-3.6 (1795, 1814)

26 Jan ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -7.6 (1945) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.6 (1795)
27 Jan ... 10.5 (2016) ... ... -6.5 (1776) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.3 (1814)
28 Jan ..... 9.8 (1944) ... ... -6.3 (1776) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814)
29 Jan ... 10.4 (1854) ... ... -6.8 (1776) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795, 1814)
30 Jan ... 10.2 (2000) ... ... -7.5 (1776) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795)
31 Jan ... 10.9 (1868) ... ... -7.2 (1776) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.5 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795)

_____________________________________________________________________________

As a measure of how cold Jan 1963 was, the running mean to 24th, 25th and 26th was -2.7 C. 

1834 almost caught the leaders by 28th at 7.5 C, finished on 7.1. ... 1814 fell back only to -2.9 C.

[Summer Sun]

5.8c to the 1st

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 5.8c to the 1st

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very late 6.5c and 54mm

 

BFTP

Edited January 2, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Kentspur]

5.6c and 68mm please I notice quite a few people have gone for a much wetter month than me though will be interesting to see, goodluck everyone- let's see what happens I'll be happy to make the top 10 again though unlikely as I've entered so late dam time penalties

[pinball wizard]

5.5 c and 71 mm for me. Thanks 

[Durham Weather]

Is anybody else getting a feeling in their water that January is going to push the all time 1916 record?

[Don]

13 minutes ago, Durham Weather said:

Is anybody else getting a feeling in their water that January is going to push the all time 1916 record?

I hope not, that means my guess of 5.8C will be well off the mark!  However, it wouldn't surprise me sadly.

Edited January 2, 2020 by Don

[Don]

9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.8c to the 1st

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 5.8c to the 1st

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

Highlights the January warming very well........

[booferking]

6.0c 65mm please

[February1978]

5.6c and 59mm

[Roger J Smith]

The later entries have been edited into the table on page four, and the consensus values have drifted up for CET (5.35 C) and down for EWP (80.15 mm). 

You can continue to enter until end of today (3rd of January). 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

14 hours ago, Durham Weather said:

Is anybody else getting a feeling in their water that January is going to push the all time 1916 record?

Too early to say, could easily get colder temperatures in the second half.

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 2nd

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 6.7c to the 2nd

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[damianslaw]

Another very mild first half to January looking likely, a common theme since 2007, only 2009, 2010 and 2011 to an extent have produced colder or just average first halves to January. 2013 saw a major flip around 12th after a very mild first 10 days.

Would be good to know the running mean 1-12th of years since 2007 emphasising just how mild the starts to January have been in recent years. Second halves of January have been much closer to normal and sometimes a bit below..

[Roger J Smith]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Another very mild first half to January looking likely, a common theme since 2007, only 2009, 2010 and 2011 to an extent have produced colder or just average first halves to January. 2013 saw a major flip around 12th after a very mild first 10 days.

Would be good to know the running mean 1-12th of years since 2007 emphasising just how mild the starts to January have been in recent years. Second halves of January have been much closer to normal and sometimes a bit below..

I worked that out as follows ...

1st to 19th ran mild as you were saying ... 5.5, 4.5, 4.1, 4.2, 4.4, 4.3, 4.7, 5.6, 5.1, 4.9, 5.0, 5.5. 5.3, 4.5, 4.8, 4.8, 4.3 , 4.8, 4.3

20th to 31st considerably colder for a while, a rebound to mild, and cold at the end ... 3.5, 3.5, 3.6, 3.8, 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.0, 4.8, 4.8, 3.6, 3.8

____________________________

Really this trend can be seen going back as far as at least 2000. The daily means for January for 2000 to 2019 are as follows (with the same groupings as above, 19 and 12)

5.1, 4.6, 4.2, 4.1, 4.2, 4.5, 4.6, 5.2, 4.7, 4.9, 5.0, 5.3, 5.2, 4.8, 5.0, 4.8, 4.4, 4.2, 4.7

4.4, 4.4, 4.1, 4.2, 4.5, 4.7, 4.9, 5.0, 4.7, 4.8, 4.2, 4.5

So that longer period, while not as strong a cooling trend after about the 19th, shows the same trends you mentioned. 

Final note, if I took the years 2007 to 2019 and excluded 2009, 2010 and 2011, then the means look like this:

6.8 (!), 5.6, 5.3, 5.6, 5.7, 5.7, 6.5, 7.0 (!), 6.4, 6.1, 5.5, 5.8, 5.2, 4.4, 4.7, 4.1, 3.8, 4.1, 4.4

3.8, 3.8, 3.7, 3.8, 4.9, 5.3, 5.5, 5.7, 5.4, 5.5, 4.3, 4.4

The means of those years from 1st to 12th would have the running mean at 6.0 C on the 12th. The end of month average for the years in the last sample would be 5.1 C. 

 

[SLEETY]

Good chance of the record going, if you look at the current runs this morning. 

Can't believe I went too low at 6.9c lol

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 3rd

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 6.7c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.7c to the 3rd

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 6.7c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

Early days but I think my 5.8C guess could be a bust already......

[Roger J Smith]

Since the mid-1990s therre has been a tendency for record warm months to appear roughly every five years:

Nov 1994, Aug 1995

Oct 2001

July and Sep 2006

April 2011

Dec 2015

The intervals are 6 yr 2 mo, 4 yr 9 (and 11) mo, 4 yr 7 mo, 4 yr 8 mo and this one would be 4 yr 1 mo.

Before the mid 1990s, I think the pulse of very warm months was a bit longer going back 1990, 1983, 1976. (1969), 1957 with warmest April, 1949, 1938, 1934, 1921 then 1916. The pulse average was closer to seven years before 1990.

4.5 to 5.0 years would be roughly two QBO cycles so one might look in between those pulses for one or in some cases two secondary peaks. Recently I would say perhaps July 2013 and March 2017.

 

[damianslaw]

31 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Since the mid-1990s therre has been a tendency for record warm months to appear roughly every five years:

Nov 1994, Aug 1995

Oct 2001

July and Sep 2006

April 2011

Dec 2015

The intervals are 6 yr 2 mo, 4 yr 9 (and 11) mo, 4 yr 7 mo, 4 yr 8 mo and this one would be 4 yr 1 mo.

Before the mid 1990s, I think the pulse of very warm months was a bit longer going back 1990, 1983, 1976. (1969), 1957 with warmest April, 1949, 1938, 1934, 1921 then 1916. The pulse average was closer to seven years before 1990.

4.5 to 5.0 years would be roughly two QBO cycles so one might look in between those pulses for one or in some cases two secondary peaks. Recently I would say perhaps July 2013 and March 2017.

 

Also came close in Feb 2019.

Thanks for the stats, proof many recent January's have had very mild first halves. Since 1987, I would say there have only been 3 first halves to January that have been on the colder side, 1997, 2009 and 2010 - a poor showing indeed. I suspect we have had far more colder second halves to February than first halves to January since 1987.

[Don]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Also came close in Feb 2019.

Thanks for the stats, proof many recent January's have had very mild first halves. Since 1987, I would say there have only been 3 first halves to January that have been on the colder side, 1997, 2009 and 2010 - a poor showing indeed. I suspect we have had far more colder second halves to February than first halves to January since 1987.

I suspect that's probably true.  The cold spell in January 2013 didn't really start until around the 10th with the month starting mild.  I think January 2002 possibly had a colder first half and certainly started on a cold note, albeit not snowy.  However, the 2nd half of the month was notably mild.

[North-Easterly Blast]

23 minutes ago, Don said:

I suspect that's probably true.  The cold spell in January 2013 didn't really start until around the 10th with the month starting mild.  I think January 2002 possibly had a colder first half and certainly started on a cold note, albeit not snowy.  However, the 2nd half of the month was notably mild.

I believe that Jan 2003 had a colder first half with a fairly cold period in the single digits of that month.  You are right, since 1987 I can only think of 1997, 2009 and 2010 that saw a significant cold spell in the first half (2010 notably so).  In actual fact since 1987 I only recall 2013 that brought a significant cold spell through the middle third of the month.

[North-Easterly Blast]

31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I suspect we have had far more colder second halves to February than first halves to January since 1987.

Many recent second halves to February have actually been very mild (2019 warmest on record I believe), plus also 2017, 2014, 2012, 2009 and 2007 significantly so.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I believe that Jan 2003 had a colder first half with a fairly cold period in the single digits of that month.  You are right, since 1987 I can only think of 1997, 2009 and 2010 that saw a significant cold spell in the first half (2010 notably so).  In actual fact since 1987 I only recall 2013 that brought a significant cold spell through the middle third of the month.

You are absolutely correct, I forgot about 2003!  London had its biggest snowfall since February 1991 on the 8th and I think there may have been a couple of Ice days?  It turned significantly milder by mid month, but the cold returned at the end of the month giving more snowfalls, one of which resulted in the M11 fiasco!

[North-Easterly Blast]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

You are absolutely correct, I forgot about 2003!  London had its biggest snowfall since February 1991 on the 8th and I think there may have been a couple of Ice days?  It turned significantly milder by mid month, but the cold returned at the end of the month giving more snowfalls, one of which resulted in the M11 fiasco!

The Jan 2003 spells were patterns that did not quite set up perfectly to bring significant UK wide cold and snow, but favoured areas like those you mention got lucky.