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Roger J Smith

January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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Sunny Sheffield on 6.5C -2.1C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

All the drops are happening are due to the night time temperatures and unexpected clear night last night. Clear skies this evening and possibly first part of the night will provide another chance of another drop.

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6.6c to the 21st

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

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Blimey, that's almost a 1c drop in 5 days, and it wasn't even all that cold, just a little below average with some frost and fog around, and a lot of the colder temps were just south of the CET zone. Just goes to show how extraordinarily high the CET had got for January,.

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Sunny Sheffield at 6.4C +2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

A steady rise again from today is on the cards so any losses here will quickly be regained.

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6 hours ago, snowray said:

Blimey, that's almost a 1c drop in 5 days, and it wasn't even all that cold, just a little below average with some frost and fog around, and a lot of the colder temps were just south of the CET zone. Just goes to show how extraordinarily high the CET had got for January,.

Here it's just the min temp that has dropped the daily max hardly fell. And yes it wasn't cold here with the temps actually being average values for two days and back above today.....

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6.6c to the 22nd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

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EWP still on 64 mm but projections have increased somewhat, looks like 90-95 is the new target with a range across the country from 15 to over 50 mm expected, much of that towards the last few days. 

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Sunny Sheffield back to 6.5C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall up to 46mm 56.8% of the monthly average.

GFS has suddenly changed tack and now showing a colder outlook although I don't have much faith in this due to the sudden switch.

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Nothing overly cold for rest of January but enough chill to prevent a finish in the 7s at least. Likely landing mark low - mid 6s.. there have been a few times recently January has been milder than December, 2018, 2014?, 2007 I think? 2005, 2002..  looking back at stats I was surprised to see 2017 and 2019 coming out at 4 degrees.. both feature as being at the colder end of January's since 1988.. 2017 I simply cant remember anything about certainly no snow or hard frost.. second half last year was frosty though with some cold days. Indeed 22 January's out of total 32 were milder.. how poor has January been for cold weather recently!

Edited by damianslaw

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6.5c to the 23rd

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

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Still at 6.5C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Going to a close call whether it will be the warmest Jan on record for us.

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2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Still at 6.5C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Going to a close call whether it will be the warmest Jan on record for us.

There's no way its going to beat 1916 or 1921.

Models predicting first few days of next week will be much colder, though most are north of the CET, with snowfall predicted.

I'd say 2008 is the most similar year to this in terms of winter, that turned out to be 6.6. I'm guessing 6.3

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3 hours ago, qwertyK said:

There's no way its going to beat 1916 or 1921.

Models predicting first few days of next week will be much colder, though most are north of the CET, with snowfall predicted.

I'd say 2008 is the most similar year to this in terms of winter, that turned out to be 6.6. I'm guessing 6.3

Yes strong parallels with 2008, mid-late Feb 2008 brought a long anticyclonic spell and large diurnal temp range, with some frosty nights and mild days and abundant sunshine..

The cold arrived in time for easter and early April.. we were also I think in solar minima and crawled out of it following winter very slowly which marked a sea-change to much colder conditions... mmm... strong parallels..

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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Yes strong parallels with 2008, mid-late Feb 2008 brought a long anticyclonic spell and large diurnal temp range, with some frosty nights and mild days and abundant sunshine..

The cold arrived in time for easter and early April.. we were also I think in solar minima and crawled out of it following winter very slowly which marked a sea-change to much colder conditions... mmm... strong parallels..

Was 2008 the year it snowed on Easter Sunday? ~23rd March...

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On 23/01/2020 at 22:47, damianslaw said:

.. 2017 I simply cant remember anything about certainly no snow or hard frost..

Remember a very brief cold snap bringing snow showers

Also remember a strange cold day during the last week of that January. A really cold bitter southerly wind and flakes of snow in the air, yet the 850hpas were +ve

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6.5c to the 24th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

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Sunny Sheffield still on 6.5C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall 46.1mm 56.9% of the monthly average.

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21 hours ago, qwertyK said:

There's no way its going to beat 1916 or 1921.

Models predicting first few days of next week will be much colder, though most are north of the CET, with snowfall predicted.

I'd say 2008 is the most similar year to this in terms of winter, that turned out to be 6.6. I'm guessing 6.3

We weren't recording in 1916 or 1921. Our records only back to 1954.

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2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

We weren't recording in 1916 or 1921. Our records only back to 1954.

Regardless, 1916 was still the warmest January on record with a CET of 7.5 

 

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Still doesn't make any difference to our records though which is what I'm referring to.

 

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Looks colder further north from sunday.

Sheffield is quite a bit further north to the CET zone.

Edited by Snowyowl9

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On 24/01/2020 at 21:42, damianslaw said:

Yes strong parallels with 2008, mid-late Feb 2008 brought a long anticyclonic spell and large diurnal temp range, with some frosty nights and mild days and abundant sunshine..

The cold arrived in time for easter and early April.. we were also I think in solar minima and crawled out of it following winter very slowly which marked a sea-change to much colder conditions... mmm... strong parallels..

Yes I believe We are in the same position re solar cycle as 08/09.  Mild Feb (HP led but can bring pretty chilly nights)  but a  Cold Spring in the offing.  This minima being slightly deeper and cyclically heading downwards....very interesting.

Several runs showing HP developing t192 with cold air available....some pretty cold nights to be had if maintained with -6c no problem, with the 18z double digit minus’ will be had

 

BFTP 

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I'm not sure you can really compare this winter with 2007-08. December 2007 had a chilly anticyclonic spell of about two weeks that ended just before Christmas         11th-24th December 2007 CET: 1.9C

Also January 2008 was far wetter, one of the wettest Januarys on record.

As for spring 2008, it wasn't actually a cold spring, May 2008 was one of the warmest Mays on record. March 2008 was 6.1C, so it was 0.2C below the 1971-2000 average but overall you can't really call that a cold month and April 2008 was 7.9C

Edited by Weather-history

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2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I'm not sure you can really compare this winter with 2007-08. December 2007 had a chilly anticyclonic spell of about two weeks that ended just before Christmas         11th-24th December 2007 CET: 1.9C

Also January 2008 was far wetter, one of the wettest Januarys on record.

As for spring 2008, it wasn't actually a cold spring, May 2008 was one of the warmest Mays on record. March 2008 was 6.1C, so it was 0.2C below the 1971-2000 average but overall you can't really call that a cold month and April 2008 was 7.9C

I think it was more so that there was a period from around the middle of March 2008 to about the 20th April that was below average overall, which does not really stand out in the overall monthly averages as the first half of March 2008 certainly wasn't cold, and there was actually a warmer spell in the last part of April 2008.

As for this month there is no way that it is going to rival 1916 or 1921, or even beat 2007s 7.0, and beating 2008 (6.6) looks shaky now; I get the feeling now that this month will end with a CET somewhere in between 6.0 and 6.5 after adjustments, which for January is still very mild indeed even by the standards of the last 30 odd years, so we will still see the first "notably mild January" since 2008.  So close to solar minimum and neutral to weakly positive ENSO and neutral QBO still producing a notably mild January for the UK with a CET in the 6*C+ range, makes anyone question whether it is any longer realistically possible for a notable cold spell or prolonged spell of wintry weather to develop again in the UK, and if winters like 2012-13, 2009-10 or spells like Dec 2010 will ever be seen again.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast

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Sunny Sheffield still at 6.5C +2.1C above normal, Rainfall 46.2mm 57% of the monthly average.

We will probably end up about 6.2C to 6.4C so won't be creating a new record for us in Sunny Sheffield. Going to be a dry month as well rainfall wise.

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