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Roger J Smith

January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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(a) January CET forecast contest

__ __ averages and extremes __ __

(including all CET values since 1981) 

 

11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834 and 25th, 2016)

 8.0 ..
 7.9
 7.8
 7.7
 7.6
 7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
 7.4
 7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
 7.2
 7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

 7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007)
 6.9 ... sixth warmest (1733)
 6.8 ... seventh warmest (1975)
 6.7 ... eighth warmest (1983)
 6.6 ... tied ninth warmest (1898, 2008)
 6.5 ... tied eleventh warmest (1686, 1884, 1990)
 6.4 ... tied fourteenth warmest (1736, 1875)
 6.3 ... tied sixteenth warmest (1846, 1932)
 6.2 ... eighteenth warmest (1737)
 6.1 ... nineteenth warmest (1989)
 
 6.0 ... three tied for 20th warmest (1682, 1708, 2005)
 5.9 ... four tied for 23rd warmest (1759, 1974, 1976, 1993)
 5.8 ... three tied for 27th warmest (1804, 1866, 1944)
 5.7 .. 2014 (tied with 1890, 1938 as 30th warmest)
 5.6 ..
 5.5 .. 1999, 2002
 5.4 .. 2012, 2016
 5.3 .. 1988, 1994, 2018

 5.2 .. 1998, 2004
 5.1 ..

 5.0 ..
 4.9 .. 1981, 2000
 4.8 .. 1995

 4.7 .. --- average 1990-2019 --- 

 4.6 .. --- average 1991-2019 --- ... also --- average 2001-2019 ---

 4.5 .. 2003
 4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2015

 ... ... ... -- also average 1898-1927 and 1910-1939 -- (warmth not reached again until 1979 to 2008)
 4.3 .. 1996, 2006
 4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
 4.1 ..

 4.0 .. 2017, 2019
 3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ----
 3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 ----- and also 1984
 3.7 .. 1992, 2011
 3.6 ...
 3.5 .. 1986, 2013
 3.4 ..
 3.3 .. --- average 1659-2019 (3.27) ----- and also 1991
 3.2 .. 2001

 3.1 .. --- average 1939-1968 --- (lowest 30-year average since 1881-1910)
 3.0 .. --- average 1801-1900 ---- and also 2009
 2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ----
 2.8 ..
 2.7
 2.6 .. --- average 1659-1700 ---- and also 1982
 2.5 .. 1997
 2.4 .. --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
 2.3 ..
 2.2 ..
 2.1 ..

 2.0 ... --- average 1766 to 1795 --- coldest 30-year average
 1.9 ..
 1.8 ..
 1.7 ...
 1.6 ...
 1.5 ...
 1.4 ... coldest past 28 yrs (2010) -- tied 64th coldest with 1744
 1.3 ...
 1.2 ...
 1.1 ...
 1.0 ...
 0.9 ...
 0.8 ... coldest past 31 yrs (1985, 1987) -- tied joint 41st coldest with 1768.
 0.7 ...
 0.6 ...
 0.5 ...
 0.4 ...
 0.3 ...
 0.2 ...
 0.1 ...
 0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780)
-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9
-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)
-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean in past 149 yrs (23rd, 1963)

      -- this was the coldest day in any month and in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter the temperature forecast contest by end of day Tuesday, 31 December (2019) or with increasing time penalties on the first three days of January 2020. 

 

(Optional) Precip forecast contest

-- Predict the January precipitation (snowfall liquid equivalent so for every 10 cm of snow, 10 mm precip on average), the standard we are using for this contest is the Hadley England and Wales Precip (EWP) and here are the averages and extremes (the period of record is 1766 to present) ...

184.6 .. wettest January (2014)

176.8 .. 2nd wettest Jan (1948)

 95.7 .. --- average 1990-2019 ---

 93.0 .. --- average 1981-2010 ---

 81.3 _ average of all data 1766 to 2019

 16.5 .. driest January in recent past (1997) -- 5th driest since these records started in 1766

 15.3 .. second driest January on record (1779)

 04.4 .. driest January (1766)

Notes: The recent past has seen several quite wet months besides 2014, 1988 (169.0 mm) was third wettest, 1995 (162.6 mm) was fourth wettest, and 2016 (149.5 mm) was 8th wettest. Last year was a relatively dry 47.1 mm, while Jan 2018 was slightly wetter than average at 104.5 mm,  2017 produced 79.6 mm and 2015 had 101.0 mm. Dry Januaries have been rare in recent decades. Aside from 1997, the only cases since 1981 to record 40 mm or less include 1987 with 33.9 mm, and 2006 with 31.9 mm. Last January was the fifth driest since 1973. 

To enter the precip contest, forecast the England and Wales precip for Jan 2020, to nearest mm (and tenth if desired). You can add this to your temperature forecast or place it in a separate post. 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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9.5C  :oldsad:  Last sub -3.0C January in 1795.  Last sub -2.0C and sub -1.0C January in 1963.  Last sub 0C January in 1979.  Last sub 1C January in 1987.  Last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C January in 2010.

200mm of Atlantic garbage

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January hasn’t felt like a winter month in decades,bar the rare occasion.

No reason it will change looking at the current output.

 

6.9c 64 mm

 

 

 

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Im Going for -0.5 , got a feeling there will be a major change around New Year , and even colder as we go into Feb.

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I looked at the January CETs that followed all Novembers with a CET between 6.0C and 6.5C that in turn were followed by all Decembers with a CET of 5C or greater.

Such combinations account for under 6.5% of all years in 360 years of Mean Monthly CET recording. 

The combination occurred only twice in the 19th Century, both occasions within four years of each other in 1873 and 1876.  It happened 9 times in the 20th century. 1911 and 1912 was the first time  the pattern repeated in successive years. Another three occasions arose in the 1970s with the only other successive pair, in 1971 and 1972, followed three years later in 1975. 

To date, this century, we've only seen in once in 2013,  

Three January's that followed the November and Decembers with this pattern were under 2C, with the most recent being in 1794, 225 years ago! On every other occasion the January CET has been at least 3.5C.  If judging on this basis alone,the prospects of any real cold this winter look very bleak!  I wouldn't be surprised if we  end up seeing something similar to the awful winter that was 2013/14

I am going to go for my guess for the most common CET for Januaries that follow this pattern.... 5.5C   with a rainfall of 105mm 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Timbo said:

Im Going for -0.5 , got a feeling there will be a major change around New Year , and even colder as we go into Feb.

If that comes off,I will buy you a sledge to enjoy the snow in.

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17 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Cold ,snowy Januarys are more rare than Hot,sunny Augusts these days!

Can't remember the last cold snowy January, maybe 2013 when I was out of the country so I would have missed it anyway?

Edited by snowray

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Can't remember the last cold snowy January, maybe 2012 when I was out of the country?

January 2012 was mild and largely snowless.  January 2013 was fairly snowy by today's standards, albeit not overly cold with a CET of 3.5C.  However, not had a snowy January since.

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5 minutes ago, Don said:

January 2012 was mild and largely snowless.  January 2013 was fairly snowy by today's standards, albeit not overly cold with a CET of 3.5C.  However, not had a snowy January since.

Indeed your quite right there, I had just changed the year to 2013, in fact I think that the cold started towards the middle of the month that year. So that's a run of 7 years, IF January 2020 were to turn out mild and snowless again. Would that break any records I wonder?

Edited by snowray

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7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Indeed your quite right there, I had just changed the year to 2013, in fact I think that the cold started towards the middle of the month that year. So that's a run of 7 years, IF January 2020 were to turn out mild and snowless again. 

Yes, I believe the month started where December 2012 left off, being mild and wet.  It started to turn cold around the 10th and remained that way until the 26th, when much milder weather arrived for the end of the month.  However, night time minimums were not particularly low during the cold spell and this prevented it from being a colder month.

Edited by Don

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Bit early for me but seeing how the high pressure is set up over Europe indicates a mild month for me so going for 5.9C. Rainfall below average at 60mm

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