January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

2 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

I'm sure they'll do this closer to the time, haven't we all basically agreed here that the CET for January was about 6.3

More than likely yes. 

[Snowyowl9]

Could be 6.2c downward adjustment more frosts down south,north some places havn`t even had a frost.

[Don]

35 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Could be 6.2c downward adjustment more frosts down south,north some places havn`t even had a frost.

Could well be and I would prefer it to land on 6.2C, as that would mean I was only 0.4C out with my CET guess!  Can't see the final figure being any lower than than that, though.

Edited February 8, 2020 by Don

[Summer Sun]

Rothamsted has data missing from January which is what's causing the issues.

[Don]

34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Rothamsted has data missing from January which is what's causing the issues.

Well, lets hope they rectify the missing data soon.

[Weather26]

And all because of one place needing to send it's data! 

[J10]

Unfortunately still waiting for VAR to confirm the result.....

 

[Don]

20 minutes ago, J10 said:

Unfortunately still waiting for VAR to confirm the result.....

 

Final data for February will be in before January at this rate!

[mulzy]

Confirmed as 6.4C

[North-Easterly Blast]

The final January 2020 CET has been confirmed as 6.39*C, so it was a notably mild January, and the joint 14th warmest in the entire CET series, although the warmest only since 2008, and also the first "notably mild" January with a CET over 6*C since 2008.

A notably mild January to say the least, and what a depressingly high CET to have in a January close to solar minimum.  At least 2008 was in a strong La Nina (a poor factor from a cold UK perspective) whereas 2020 wasn't, so something is desperately wrong with our weather patterns making it worrying if we can ever see a 2009-10, Dec 2010 or even a 2012-13 winter ever again.

Edited February 12, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[qwertyK]

3 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The final January 2020 CET has been confirmed as 6.39*C, so it was a notably mild January, and the joint 14th warmest in the entire CET series, although the warmest only since 2008, and also the first "notably mild" January with a CET over 6*C since 2008.

A notably mild January to say the least, and what a depressingly high CET to have in a January close to solar minimum.  At least 2008 was in a strong La Nina (a poor factor from a cold UK perspective) whereas 2020 wasn't, so something is desperately wrong with our weather patterns making it worrying if we can ever see a 2009-10, Dec 2010 or even a 2012-13 winter ever again.

Climate change, globally January 2020 was the warmest January on record, albeit only 0.03C warmer than 2016.

Feb 2012 saw temps of 18C. We still had the beast from the east in 2018 which was good enough for me. 

I am surprised that the 1916 record has survived for 104 years, if you think the current January we have had was mild, I dread to think what that one was like! Anyone here have any figures and the reasons behind that one?

Edited February 12, 2020 by qwertyK

[North-Easterly Blast]

37 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Climate change, globally January 2020 was the warmest January on record, albeit only 0.03C warmer than 2016.

Feb 2012 saw temps of 18C. We still had the beast from the east in 2018 which was good enough for me. 

I am surprised that the 1916 record has survived for 104 years, if you think the current January we have had was mild, I dread to think what that one was like! Anyone here have any figures and the reasons behind that one?

Well 1921 at 7.3 was almost as mild as 1916's 7.5.  In recent times we ran close to the record in 2007 with 7.0.  I think that last month if it had not been for the HP that settled over the country for a few days around the 20th bringing a few frosty nights then we could well have been looking at a month to rival 1916 or 1921 or at least 2007, but the joint 14th warmest January ever recorded in 360+ years, I would call a notably high CET to say the least.

Edited February 12, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[qwertyK]

1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well 1921 at 7.3 was almost as mild as 1916's 7.5.  In recent times we ran close to the record in 2007 with 7.0.  I think that last month if it had not been for the HP that settled over the country for a few days around the 20th bringing a few frosty nights then we could well have been looking at a month to rival 1916 or 1921 or at least 2007.

What caused it those years, El nino/high solar maximum? Or was it a positive NAO like now?

Edited February 12, 2020 by qwertyK

[qwertyK]

3 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well 1921 at 7.3 was almost as mild as 1916's 7.5.  In recent times we ran close to the record in 2007 with 7.0.  I think that last month if it had not been for the HP that settled over the country for a few days around the 20th bringing a few frosty nights then we could well have been looking at a month to rival 1916 or 1921 or at least 2007.

I think this month will probably be cooler than January, last year was 6.7 which was the highest? 

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

What caused it those years, El nino/high solar maximum? Or was it a positive NAO like now?

A positive NAO delivered a notably cold snowy polar maritime zonal spell in January 1984, so if a positive NAO orientates favourably it does not guarantee mild in the UK, nor does a negative NAO guarantee cold for the UK, as January 1969 showed.

[qwertyK]

Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

A positive NAO delivered a notably cold snowy polar maritime zonal spell in January 1984, so if a positive NAO orientates favourably it does not guarantee mild in the UK, nor does a negative NAO guarantee cold for the UK, as January 1969 showed.

So, as I said, do we know why those two winters were so mild? Obviously many people (perhaps rightly or wrongly) will coem to the conclusion that this winter was made warmer by anthropogenic climate change, but that would not have been a factor in the early 1900s. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

6 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

I think this month will probably be cooler than January, last year was 6.7 which was the highest? 

Yes, last February's 6.7 was notably mild for February (15th warmest on record or thereabouts), although a cold first few days to Feb 2019 prevented it from being the warmest ever, or a 7*C+ month; the warmest February CET goes to 1779 with 7.9; so Feb 2019 was a similarly notably warm month to Jan 2020.

Edited February 12, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[qwertyK]

Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

No last February's 6.7 was notably mild for February, although a cold first few days to Feb 2019 prevented it from being the warmest ever, of which the warmest February CET goes to 1779 with 7.9.

 7.9C bloody hell, that must have been one mild winter, I remember we had some cold last Feb. Looking back in the wider scheme of things, whilst we did see 20C exceeded, very mild temps in winter in recent years anyway are not even that rare. I had to go back through weather records to find them as I clearly didn't remember them at the time, but in 2017 February we saw 18C, as did 2012 and obviously 1998 the prior record. 17C recorded in January 2003 and 16C in January 2016. 

[qwertyK]

12 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Yes, last February's 6.7 was notably mild for February (15th warmest on record or thereabouts), although a cold first few days to Feb 2019 prevented it from being the warmest ever, or a 7*C+ month; the warmest February CET goes to 1779 with 7.9; so Feb 2019 was a similarly notably warm month to Jan 2020.

Granted there were no extreme anomalies in terms of temp, max was 15.5C compared to 21.2C in Feb. 

I have noticed that everytime in February we have warmth it is generally around the 20-25th of the month. 

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP has finally been confirmed also, at 82.8 mm which is a bit of an increase over the provisional value on the tracker (81 mm). Will be back with an updated leaderboard once I recalculate the January scoring.

[J10]

VAR has confirmed that the sites were onside, and the results stands!!

Jan 20 CET.xlsx(Excel) -> Again there is an issue with downloading these figures, rename the file as a .xlsx and it will work.

Seriously though, here are the results, nobody got the figures spot on but 4 were 0.1c out.

I remember Atlantic 252
chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Norrance
BLAST FROM THE PAST

Top 10 Monthly

Top 10 Seasonal and Overall - identical scores.
1. mb018538
2. reef
3. Dancerwithwings

Edited February 12, 2020 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

Updated scoring for the EWP contest

With the Jan EWP confirmed at 82.8 mm, these are the current annual standings as well as the top twenty for January scoring. If you're not in these lists, check the small print section below the lists, rather than linking to an excel sheet nobody can open, I have printed out the scores for all who entered either or both contests so far. To have a ranking for average error you need to have two entries, next month 2/3 will be ranked and after that, 3/4, 4/5, 4/6 and then all but two must be entered to end of the contest year. The rank for total score is open to all entrants no matter how few times they entered. You'll need to enter two or three times to stay ahead of some of us.

With the slightly revised January amount, the two annual leaders did even better than before and are out to quite a good start. Congrats to DiagonalRedLine for leading both the month and the overall scoring ...

RANK ____ January scoring _______________  Annual scoring _ _ _ _ _ _ : _ _ _ _ :  _ _ _ _ : :

______ Forecaster ________ Fcst __ Points ___ Forecaster _________ Points __ avg error (rank)

_ 01 __ Diagonal Red Line __ 83.0 __10.00____ Diagonal Red Line ____ 19.83 ___ 0.8 (1)

_ 02 __ Robbie Garrett _____ 82.5 ___ 9.84 ___ Reef _______________ 18.61 ___ 5.4 (2)

_ 03 __ Reef _____________ 84.0 ___ 9.68 ___ Emmett Garland ______ 17.71 ___ 6.9 (3)

_ 04 __ Born From The Void _81.0 ___ 9.52 ___ Twilight _____________ 16.99 ___11.9 (T8)

_ 05 __ Twilight ___________85.0 ___ 9.36 ___ Robbie Garrett ________16.91 ___12.45 (10)

_ 06 __ Mr TOAD _________ 85.0 ___ 9.28 ___ Pinball Wizard ________ 16.74 ___ 9.2 (5)

_ 07 __ Midlands Ice Age ___ 80.3 ___ 9.04 ___ Kentspur ____________ 16.50 ___ 7.7 (4)

_ 08 __ mb018538 ________ 80.0 ___ 8.88 ___ Don ________________ 15.14 ___11.9 (T8)

_ 09 __  Emmett Garland ___ 87.0 ___ 8.73 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers _15.05 ___10.9 (7)

_ 10 __ Bobd29 __________ 78.0 ___ 8.57 ___ mb018538 ___________14.90 ___16.2 (15)

_ 11 __ Neil N (nn2013) ____ 88.0 ___ 8.41 ___(t-10) Virtualsphere ____ 14.90 ___13.8 (13)

_ 12 __ SteveB ___________76.0 ___ 8.25 ___ Stationary Front _______14.84 ___13.65 (12)

_ 13 __ freeze ____________90.0 ___8.09 ___ Dog Toffee ___________ 14.47 ___13.4 (11)

_ 14 __ Jonboy (1d late) ____75.0 ___7.73 ___ Jonboy ______________ 14.42 ___17.2 (16)

_ 15 __ Stargazer (1d late) __74.0 ___7.57 ___ Relativistic ___________ 14.19 ___ 9.9 (6)

_ 16 __ General Cluster ____ 95.0 ___7.46 ___ J10 _________________14.19 ___14.4 (14)

_ 17 __ Godber1 __________70.0 ___7.30 ___ General Cluster _______ 14.05 ___19.4 (T17)

_ 18 __ Pinball Wizard (2d l)_ 71.0 ___7.21 ___ Midlands Ice Age ______13.90 ___19.55 (19)

_ 19 __ Ultima Thule (1d late) 69.0 ___6.94 ___Dr(S)No ______________12.81 ___19.65 (20)

_ 20 __ Joneseye _________ 95.0 ___6.82 ___ Godber1 _____________12.74 ___22.2 (22)

_ 21 __ daniel* ___________ 67.0 ___6.66 ___ JeffC ________________12.10 ___19.4 (T17)

_ 22 __ Kentspur (2d late) __ 68.0 ___6.58 ___ davehsug ____________ 12.05 ___22.7 (23)

______________________________________________________________________________

Rest of annual scoring totals ... to 60th place (only entered Dec ^)

23 to 27 __ Bobd29 (11.62), Stargazer (11.98), Timmytour (11.59), BornFromTheVoid (10.83), brmbrmcar (10.81), 

28 to 32 __ Joneseye (10.24), SteveB (10.11), daniel* (10.03), cold is best (10.00^), Mr TOAD (9.79),

33 to 37 __ appleuk123 (9.58)^ Lewis (9.48)^ Roger J Smith (9.38), Neil N (9.26), legritter (9.24)^

38 to 42 __ DeanE (9.15)^, syed2878 (9.11), snowray (9.02), Blast from the Past (8.78), IRemAtl252 (8.70)

43 to 48 __ That ECM (8.51)^ Icykev (8.46)^ shillitocet (8.31)^ freeze (8.26), weather26 (8.25) Lottiekent (8.25)

49 to 53 __ ARW Weatherman (8.22)^ coldest winter (8.05)^ Sky Full (7.97)^ Mizzle (7.92)^ selliso (7.8)^

54 to 58 __ weather-history (7.6), SLEETY (7.42), coopsy (7.37)^ Jack Wales (7.33)^ John888 (7.29)^

59 to 64 __ AWD (7.24)^, The PIT (7.12), ribster (7.12)^ Kirkcaldy Weather (6.94), Ultima Thule (6.94)  Mulzy (6.81)

 

Totals of entrants to both contests only after 64th __ 

Booferking (6.71), Mr Maunder (6.61), Feb91Blizzard (6.59), DAVID SNOW (6.53), seaside60 (5.56), Norrance (5.54),

Polar Gael (5.48), Cymro (3.69), CheesepuffScott (3.63), Stewfox (3.09), Lettucing Gutted (0.16). 

(Ultima Thule (6.94) followed by Carl46Wrexham (4.99) have the highest total of anyone who only entered January,

 followed by Feb1978 at 3.01).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Consensus has 14.55 points, good for 13th place in the contest. 

Normals have closer to 15 points, having scored better in December than our consensus, but we caught up somewhat in January.

I may try posting the excel file tomorrow, once I reorder it and establish the full rankings for average error. 

 

Edited February 13, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

Funny how the December record was smashed considering how few very mild Decembers there have been until 2015, yet January and especially  February records are still intact. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Funny how the December record was smashed considering how few very mild Decembers there have been until 2015, yet January and especially  February records are still intact. 

Well the all time February record of 7.9 back in 1779 would have been just as extremely off the scale as the December we had in 2015.  Getting back to the January record, in recent times 2007 was pretty close to the all time record (only 0.5 off), then another January in the top ten warmest in 2008.  With February, in both 1990 and 1998 we had the joint third warmest, and another top ten February in 2002.  The March record also remains intact since 1957, although we came pretty close in 2017 at only 0.5*C short.

I think that the all time warmest February CET in 1779 is the oldest all time monthly record.

Edited February 13, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 6.4c January 2020 shares the same mean CET with January's:

1736

1875