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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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Bah humbug I see this weekends cold snap has been assigned to the north sea not really surprised as this was being hinted at the last few runs which a gentle shunt eastwards each time. So we are stuck still in early autumn or have bypassed Winter and switched to early spring....

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Oh poo! Y'all're no doubt be surprised to learn that that channel-running LP has virtually no support at all from the GEFS (Londonshire) ensembles!:shok::oldgrin:

And neither (thanks TWS!) does the 'colder' outlook, in general...Och well, that's Happy Hour done with, for another day?:drunk:

Londonshire.. ? And perhaps not as dramatic as that ridiculous funny outlier last month for that Friday 13th with the Gfs throwing a snow storm into the mix of things into southern uk ?

Interestingly the Jma output yesterday showed a scenerio similar to what the Gfs has shown albeit nowhere near as potent and different days.. The jma output hasn't updated on the site I use it from yet but will show its update later.

GFS.. ?

1593483646_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_210(1).thumb.jpg.14ca8076d00221d3ff7e1f573e42298e.jpg

Jma.. ?

2136064546_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192(9).thumb.jpg.5debc245875fb04386cdaeabe8967edc.jpg

Anyway with a blend of the output of the Gfs, Ecmwf and Gem and the mean is this.. 

6th..?

89482413_EUROPE_PRMSL_114(1).thumb.jpg.6ca5e420025f5e9f8b99984122d8c02a.jpg

7th..?

107837534_EUROPE_PRMSL_156(8).thumb.jpg.32f512a95d42efd6088bce710b7e0df2.jpg

9th..?

2055466686_EUROPE_PRMSL_204(6).thumb.jpg.49203bc20bf760bc82b5532901737089.jpg

11th..?

304362710_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(17).thumb.jpg.46ef93463952f072b3c38647db991954.jpg

Overall A very unsettled look to things likely after the 6th with perhaps a couple of very deep low pressure systems this would be mild particularly to start but then colder after but still unsettled. 

For something a bit different this is the NCMRWF-UM model output below. ?

7th..?

1870323781_EUROPE_PRMSL_144(8).thumb.jpg.37d0ba24525ada32afaf7758a36f04b7.jpg

8th..?

414027656_EUROPE_PRMSL_168(9).thumb.jpg.558eb13370d2c34e3ebc854957478381.jpg

1221905100_EUROPE_PRMSL_186(5).thumb.jpg.132c91512ed1ab47ca5d4c8e89fd37c1.jpg

10th..?

248298859_EUROPE_PRMSL_216(3).thumb.jpg.fd2a63376d3cc19f444b65d988432226.jpg

11th..?

1895868668_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(18).thumb.jpg.bc42bb8494a1bd4c11e2ddf6f0c2da59.jpg

Showing quite literally an Atlantic anslaught (meaning a pattern with a succession of atlantic low pressure systems one after the other) and a couple of very stormy spells no need to go into too much detail with this model and of course it being a week or more away but its very unsettled and stormy with a lot of rainfall especially for northern parts..temperatures would be very mild in these warm sectors between the warm and cold fronts cold front would be denoted by the sudden kink in the isobars just to the west of those very strong winds across England and Wales on the 11th of January chart above.

The Ecmwf mind you isn't as unsettled with higher pressure by around day 10..

1097159357_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(15).thumb.jpg.ada901019d20c947ce11d8a0eae89f87.jpg

but most models point towards a period of strong westerly winds perhaps with a more northwest to se pattern to things come day 10 with colder conditions. 

Once again a Happy New year to all of you. ?

Edited by jordan smith
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The GFS 12z more in line with my thinking for the next 2-weeks:

anim_dcm3.gif

The tPV concentrated; with the Russian and Pacific Highs aiding and abetting that pattern. 

No doubt we will get the odd op run going off on one, as some of the GEFS have been doing, but no clear sign a pattern change is imminent and until then I am expecting the worse. 

So, cold rain in the W/NW'ly flow for most, with high totals possible again, unfortunately. It does depend on how much the Pacific High oscillates as to the ebb and flow of the vortices to our north. A blocked pattern TBH but not the one we wanted, with low-potential for HLB'ing in our region.

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I'd just be happy to permanently rid the high pressure from the south of the UK. Would be lovely in the Summer, but during Winter it just brings crap. A mobile westerly pattern, as forecast, would at least bring intermittent sunshine - something I've not seen since xmas day. 

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That is one raging PV! even the persistant feature of the last few years, the aleutian/NE Pacific ridge is nowhere to be seen. 

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The GEFS suite looks absolute garbage for actual weather practically across the suite by day 15, but a good number contain SSW precursor patterns and some actually slice the vortex with near cross polar flows.

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53 minutes ago, IDO said:

The GFS 12z more in line with my thinking for the next 2-weeks:

anim_dcm3.gif

The tPV concentrated; with the Russian and Pacific Highs aiding and abetting that pattern. 

No doubt we will get the odd op run going off on one, as some of the GEFS have been doing, but no clear sign a pattern change is imminent and until then I am expecting the worse. 

So, cold rain in the W/NW'ly flow for most, with high totals possible again, unfortunately. It does depend on how much the Pacific High oscillates as to the ebb and flow of the vortices to our north. A blocked pattern TBH but not the one we wanted, with low-potential for HLB'ing in our region.

A west/northwesterly flow I will take.Snowfall incoming for all Scottish ski areas.It’s not the blocking scenario we’re looking for but a pattern change looks closer.Just one low sinking south and we are there.

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39 minutes ago, knocker said:

?

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8830400.thumb.png.24ed05d12b49ab972639533c218145cf.png

Hi.

The above highlights my take of the Pacific High anomaly rather than a Pacific ridge? As the high oscillates it sends energy north, wedges of heights, but not really the usual Pacific wave anomaly we would hope for. This was a signal we saw last winter that was referred to in Twitter Land, and was a pain much of the winter for UK cold. It could of course threaten to bridge further north, maybe some GEFS will show this, but as it stands it is quite unhelpful for a sustainable sympathetic Atlantic ridge. 

(all subject to change and the usual small print)

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Posted (edited)

New year, same old output from the models, let's start with the MJO, here's ECM take on it, image.thumb.jpg.d3ff75b1f22b867f5e27a1a5c9fd9de2.jpg

I can't see it heading to the 'cold phases' from there but we will see.  GFS 12z looks nice at T384:

image.thumb.jpg.cb7a83e062190aa895462c2e60ea4a51.jpg

But cats might fly....ECM T216 looks awful:

image.thumb.jpg.c87a201f8f43ecd7acd7ee961f02829f.jpg

Maybe it is just New Year's Day, weird day, supposed to be the start of resolutions, but my gym is closed, actually I've been on the cider and watching 10 times that pea song on The Last Leg on Channel 4 last night...healthy stuff starts tomorrow! well have a good 2020 folks, even if weather wise it doesn't start well...we will see...

Edited by Mike Poole
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I wouldn't trust any of the runs today, I won't call them garbage even though they are pretty bad, but there is usually weather balloon input missing on New years day, like around Christmas day of course. ?

 

ECH1-240.png

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No seasonal cheer from the ECM, heading towards one of the mildest January’s of all time at this rate.

As hideous as it gets,another mild op run again ,no doubt.

still in 8 weeks  time,the heights to the South will do their usual disappearing act till next winter,most probably.

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10 day horror show from 12z EC operational. Ridge building in across Euro land where you least want it. A long road to wintry nirvana. No hints of cold zonality with the jet sinking south of UK like GFS. With GFS cold bias in medium range you kind of feel EC will be more likely, lets hope not. Lets hope this monster PV this winter relaxes to salvage something resembling winter.

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6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

No seasonal cheer from the ECM, heading towards one of the mildest January’s of all time at this rate.

As hideous as it gets,another mild op run again ,no doubt.

still in 8 weeks  time,the heights to the South will do their usual disappearing act till next winter,most probably.

brave call that on the first!

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4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

10 day horror show from 12z EC operational. Ridge building in across Euro land where you least want it. A long road to wintry nirvana. No hints of cold zonality with the jet sinking south of UK like GFS. With GFS cold bias in medium range you kind of feel EC will be more likely, lets hope not. Lets hope this monster PV this winter relaxes to salvage something resembling winter.

An awful EC indeed, not an ounce of hope for the next 2 weeks should this be true. It was a big mild outlier on the 00z ENS, let’s hope so again although is it an outlier or the only one correctly mapping the next 10 days!! The earlier 06z GFS dropping the JET looks like it was way off the mark now!! 

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7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

An awful EC indeed, not an ounce of hope for the next 2 weeks should this be true. It was a big mild outlier on the 00z ENS, let’s hope so again although is it an outlier or the only one correctly mapping the next 10 days!! The earlier 06z GFS dropping the JET looks like it was way off the mark now!! 

In all my years of model watching the 12z ECM has to be the worst in terms of both cold and boredom. Where do we go from here? Not a clue. 

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7 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

In all my years of model watching the 12z ECM has to be the worst in terms of both cold and boredom. Where do we go from here? Not a clue. 

This year is far from done, but was always going to be a struggle Dec/Jan with varying factors against us - if all ends in tears come April then I’m pretty sure the next few years coming out of a big solar minimum may bring the U.K. some proper freezes!! 
Long way to go yet, Feb could still be a blinder!! ?

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The only place we can go , take up round about watching , drive out and take photos of our  roundabouts, No thanks ,think we can write off first half of January, but come on gang keep the hope alive its only January 1st, no STellas tonight sausage sandwiches and brown sauce, ECM in the morning to bring us cheer . Amazing mild across a large range of the northern hemisphere,  but mother nature occasionally flips that to Arctic bliss ,cheers .

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50 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This year is far from done, but was always going to be a struggle Dec/Jan with varying factors against us - if all ends in tears come April then I’m pretty sure the next few years coming out of a big solar minimum may bring the U.K. some proper freezes!! 
Long way to go yet, Feb could still be a blinder!! ?

Only another 365 days to go...? Plenty of time for a year to happen...:oldlaugh:

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Anyone got a ruler handy? Trying to find the most direct route to the Azores... ?

h850t850eu.png

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Could be some stonkers on the 18z GEFS suite - this an interesting chart!

image.thumb.png.561437464b7db353a896d6bebb50c2c8.png

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Even in the most depressing winters, there is usually the odd bit of hope in the output. But there’s nothing, absolutely nothing within the 10 day range.

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