Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - into Christmas

Recommended Posts

Just when one thought it couldn’t get anything worse the 0z Ecm dispels that myth. Euro and the Azores high even more prominent in this latest run with any Atlantic onslaught looking far less likely now next week as weather systems merely brush the far northwest. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is relentless.

Meanwhile, every Australian state hits 40C.

It's pretty difficult to ignore that AGW is driving our own model outputs. The power of the jet this whole autumn / early winter is something to behold. Every time you think it's about to relent, it roars back. Sigh.

425635033_Screenshot2019-12-31at07_24_12.thumb.png.dda8c8f611d09a2d55a9f92c766a67e0.png

1336635662_Screenshot2019-12-31at07_24_50.thumb.png.49bf156c9914973e31915079749ba9bc.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Just when one thought it couldn’t get anything worse the 0z Ecm dispels that myth. Euro and the Azores high even more prominent in this latest run with any Atlantic onslaught looking far less likely now next week as weather systems merely brush the far northwest. 

I still think much to be resolved beyond this weekend, albeit nothing pointing to anything colder but the METO do mention snow showers on high ground so incursions from the NW maybe!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the D10 mean:

mean>>115354585_gensnh-21-1-240(5).thumb.png.e3efc363853234bd7749fbbca3c1300e.pngop>>351777712_gfsnh-0-228(5).thumb.png.52dcaef96360c44104b2bf71e4f9fbb9.png

Suggests the op is very optimistic with the UK HP cell. It manages to get a Med cut-off-low pre-D8 that supports the HP over the UK. Tricky feature to nail at this range so maybe gone next run?

So up to around D10 still showing what it has been for days, the tPV circulating to our north keeping a relative flat westerly pattern of the mini-ridge variety.

After D10, the spread tells the story:

anim_wzl6.gif

Lots to firm up in our region of the NH. The GEFS, as the above suggest, offer just a little in specifics, but the main cluster keeps the theme of zonal westerly flow. Though confidence in that ATM would be based on expectations rather than what the GEFS are showing. No sign of the much vaulted background signals giving us any wave forcing and I remember last year when the MJO was just noise as other factors eclipsed its normal analysis.

This weekend should see fleeting cold uppers, but the rest in my locale is underwhelming, though the 2m temps highlight the 0z op outlier feature:

graphe6_1000_308_150___.thumb.png.c59d6f1fb35c0822b19c711e36e99f8a.png

Hopefully the uncertainty after D10 is not just post-Christmas algorithmic sensitivities and that the more interesting members are picking up a possible signal. Otherwise more of the same...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just can’t believe the complete lack of cold. These charts are for January and there is double digit uppers in Scandinavia and Russia! I think it’s going to be one of those years unfortunately where we just get a short cold spell in Feb.  

C56200C2-2677-4CBB-A66C-A69D07617079.gif

BE157E8E-DF4F-4576-8DEE-6FBC584A8DEF.gif

634E5F11-75D5-4818-A746-DDDDF9507268.gif

E352A8FA-03AD-4186-B07A-7F3328279765.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just thought I would let the folk on here know, that for 28 days of our 31 for December, it has snowed somewhere in the U.K.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Differences between GFS and ECM. GFS seems to trap and tap into colder air over the UK away from the North West while the ECM is much milder.

No chance for any Snow for Snow starved Sheffield for a while yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If gfs gets this right over ecm and ukmo all i can say is wow!!!!but in all fairness ecm and ukmo have nudged the hp further north at 120 hours compared to earlier so maybe an edge towards gfs i think🤔!!maybe it will be the ecm and ukmo that crawl towards gfs for once and not the other way around!!wishful thinking maybe?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, shaky said:

If gfs gets this right over ecm and ukmo all i can say is wow!!!!but in all fairness ecm and ukmo have nudged the hp further north at 120 hours compared to earlier so maybe an edge towards gfs i think🤔!!maybe it will be the ecm and ukmo that crawl towards gfs for once and not the other way around!!wishful thinking maybe?

GFS on its own against UKMO, EC, GEM and ICON with regards to how far south it gets the Europe bound cold plunge this weekend, models other than GFS barely get -5C T850s across Scotland. So will be a triumph for GFS if it proves nearer the mark. That said, we are chasing a very brief cold shot, only likely to bring snow to Scotland and northern hills briefly, if there's ppn, before it warms up again.

Edited by Nick F

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

Just thought I would let the folk on here know, that for 28 days of our 31 for December, it has snowed somewhere in the U.K.

Does this include days with a flake over the top of cairngorm or Ben Nevis? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looking at the D10 mean:

mean>>115354585_gensnh-21-1-240(5).thumb.png.e3efc363853234bd7749fbbca3c1300e.pngop>>351777712_gfsnh-0-228(5).thumb.png.52dcaef96360c44104b2bf71e4f9fbb9.png

Suggests the op is very optimistic with the UK HP cell. It manages to get a Med cut-off-low pre-D8 that supports the HP over the UK. Tricky feature to nail at this range so maybe gone next run?

So up to around D10 still showing what it has been for days, the tPV circulating to our north keeping a relative flat westerly pattern of the mini-ridge variety.

After D10, the spread tells the story:

anim_wzl6.gif

Lots to firm up in our region of the NH. The GEFS, as the above suggest, offer just a little in specifics, but the main cluster keeps the theme of zonal westerly flow. Though confidence in that ATM would be based on expectations rather than what the GEFS are showing. No sign of the much vaulted background signals giving us any wave forcing and I remember last year when the MJO was just noise as other factors eclipsed its normal analysis.

This weekend should see fleeting cold uppers, but the rest in my locale is underwhelming, though the 2m temps highlight the 0z op outlier feature:

graphe6_1000_308_150___.thumb.png.c59d6f1fb35c0822b19c711e36e99f8a.png

Hopefully the uncertainty after D10 is not just post-Christmas algorithmic sensitivities and that the more interesting members are picking up a possible signal. Otherwise more of the same...

Morning peeps 😊

Quite a gloomy start in Walthamstow, but not too cold infact it feels mild.

i agree with the above Ido we cannot confidently say what will happen after 10 days time yet pinpoint the next 5. As mentioned in my previous posts the Euro slug is the nightmare and spoiler of many of our winters but quite the opposite in the summer for our hot summer lovers. Unfortunately there is not a lot we can do it is just dire frustration at the moment. We have to be patient and just go with this pattern. The Weatheronline outlook for the month does hint this high starting to move north possibly come mid Jan. Whether this will happen in our favour who knows no doubt taking into account there will be a lot of scatter in the models to try and get this resolved. If this high moves east or southeast eventually we are I think in trouble and will be back to square one as was the pattern earlier this month with weather fronts again getting stuck over us due to the block in the east. We just need to sit back and see where we go in the next few weeks. The only thing is I know we have plenty of winter left but this current pattern can take weeks away and I hope it does not come to a stage when we have only a few weeks left and we are still under command of this slug.

Anyway peeps what a year of model watching it has been. From the beginning of 2019 when we thought as well as the models that winter had potential, but that came to nothing. We had the few days of heat in the summer and then the cold November. We end the year with the slug Euro high now . Let's hope 2020 brings us more luck and joy for all of us. 

With this I wish each and every one of you a happy and peaceful new year. Thanks to everyone for their great posts on here it has been a pleasure to read. Also a big thank you to the forum crew who have kept this place open for us. We start a new journey now in 2020 let it be a good one for all.

all the best everyone ❤️

THE SERCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND WILL CONTINUE ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

Regards 😊😊😊😊

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning all , at least GFS run this morning gives a more seasonal picture to start next week , especially over England and Wales with a rather chilly flow off the continent. Max temps forecast in the range 1 to 5 c over England and Wales on Monday and bit higher over Scotland and Wales. The air mass has quite low DPs so will feel chilly. In the medium term , the GFS has the better position of the high to hold some colder conditions in the south at least for a while. The runs presently not showing any penetration of Northerly flow cold into our latitudes ( UK/Euroland ) holding for long, so now best hope for some dry continental feed rather than soft cell SWly flow.  Of course likely to change again in the next few but looks like a up hill battle to tap into some real cold at the moment.

C

GFSOPUK00_156_9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I think, if you’ve not already, that we will have to lower expectations for January re: cold and snow, history indicates that once a strong +AO along with +NAO sets in by the New Year, it could last for the rest of the winter. We only have to look at real stinkers of winters for cold and snow with +AO/+NAO most of the winter to be worried: to name a few 2013/2014; 2007/2008; 1999/2000; 1997/1998; 1989/1990; 1988/1989. Once the +AO/+NAO combo sets in, the models generally tend to perform better over longer time frames than when these indices are negative.

Although the MJO briefly orbits through 7-8, it does so at low amplitude, so will likely have little effect on changing the wavelengths over the N Atlantic, furthermore there is strong support for the MJO to swiftly die into COD then emerge into the Maritime Continent, phases 4-5, which are warm phases, so there will likely be no help from the MJO through much of January. Though it is possible that the MJO will progress onwards to colder phases by mid-January – but the lag of this probably not having an effect until towards end of the month.

The AO flipped suddenly from -2 to +3 in a space of a few days recently in December, so I suppose there’s chance that it may flip back –ve later in January or February – though it’s not quite clear what the precursor for this would be. But there is also every likelihood that it could remain +ve through much of the rest of the winter. The QBO has only recently turned easterly, so unlikely this will have an impact on the PV until later in winter, when the PV would normally start to wane anyway. So we are kind of reliant on tropical forcing over the Pacific changing the patterns at high latitudes, of which there is unlikely to be much help from for a few weeks at least. There is EAMT and GLAAM to consider, but that’s not my forte, so cannot really suggest if these will have positive impacts.

100% agree Nick.

Im still holding out on Feb but Dec/jan are for the gutter.

00z EC is so bad its not worthy of further comment.

😞

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

spacer.pngspacer.png

GFS 0z pretty much on its own ( but very consistent ) regarding the cold shot for the weekend.

UKMO and ECM don't agree with the cold uppers over the UK

 

It will be interesting to see what actually happens since the models are so different at just 114h  

 

spacer.png

possibly even Wintry for hilly parts of the North on Sat if GFS 0z uppers are correct ?

Edited by Jeremy Shockey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS has a different orientation of the high pressure than ECM,giving a colder feel to things from the continent.

There is still plenty to play for regarding where the high pressure sits,when it fades and re establish it self.

Looking like high pressure domination for some time.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 6-10 day 500 mb anomaly charts are each, not the same, showing some type of ridging into the UK rather than the troughing being dominant. All 3 show a somewhat different chart with GFS being the most definite, see below, in its idea of the centre being E of the UK, (between Denmark and England). The other two show a fairly strong W'ly into the UK but with the troughing being north of the UK and less influence than they were showing a couple of days ago. 

Just how this change will play out over the next 3-4 days is hard to tell but 'perhaps' (note the word!), the MJO is showing the possible solution?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

I had not read that very comprehensive post by Nick F before I posted my comments. Re the MJO then what I suggested may not be very relevant. Also the differences between the 3 do leave me wondering just what these charts (anomalies) will look like in 3-4 days. Not a lot to be optimistic really if you are wanting deep cold and snow.

Edited by johnholmes
spelling and later input

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS has been extremely consistant with the cold shot over the weekend!! Strange to be that consistant at such short range but very unlike the ECM 

4F67D4A6-C359-4A74-94BD-C7186787760D.png

7894D48D-24A9-4C30-BF91-EDEC5C86A62C.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS has been extremely consistant with the cold shot over the weekend!! Strange to be that consistant at such short range but very unlike the ECM 

4F67D4A6-C359-4A74-94BD-C7186787760D.png

7894D48D-24A9-4C30-BF91-EDEC5C86A62C.png

Gfs follows the 00z so far!!dont think its backing down!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs follows the 00z so far!!dont think its backing down!!

It will by 12z mate.

TBH its a brief toppler on GFS anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, shaky said:

If gfs gets this right over ecm and ukmo all i can say is wow!!!!but in all fairness ecm and ukmo have nudged the hp further north at 120 hours compared to earlier so maybe an edge towards gfs i think🤔!!maybe it will be the ecm and ukmo that crawl towards gfs for once and not the other way around!!wishful thinking maybe?

I think shaky the Ecm and ukmo have got this wrong regarding the weekend shaky. GFS does not appear to be alone.... I've just noticed the Exeter update for this region over the weekend.... Is much colder!! So it appears they don't even agree with there own model. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It will by 12z mate.

TBH its a brief toppler on GFS anyway.

I think its more the fact that the more this northerly digs in it will leave surface cold air in place and shall leave the high pressure more favourably placed across the uk compared to ecm and ukmo which is not as amplified at 96 hours therefore takes the high further south and east and leave us in mild muck!!surface conditions will be massively different!!need that northerly to dig in as far south and west as possible!!am sure you and i would take frosty conditions day and night compared to the crap we have endured so far!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I think shaky the Ecm and ukmo have got this wrong regarding the weekend shaky. GFS does not appear to be alone.... I've just noticed the Exeter update for this region over the weekend.... Is much colder!! So it appears they don't even agree with there own model. 

Yeh if gfs has trumped ecm and ukmo that would be unreal!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh if gfs has trumped ecm and ukmo that would be unreal!!

Well, it certainly did well with the recent plume. That said, I did suggest the circa 17C max would be in NE Wales; but, unlike what Piers Corbyn might do, I'll nae describe Sutherland as 'close'!:oldgrin:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Well, it certainly did well with the recent plume. That said, I did suggest the circa 17C max would be in NE Wales; but, unlike what Piers Corbyn might do, I'll nae describe Sutherland as 'close'!:oldgrin:

Yup was gona mention that actually!!with the high across england right now gfs amplified the pattern more than the ukmo and ecm and eventually they moved towards gfs which is why we have got a couple.of more seasonal days and frosty nights at the moment!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...