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Model output discussion - into Christmas


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Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon

Right folks, due to family commitments and a lot of travelling, that's me over and out till the end of the year... So i would just like to wish each and everyone of you a fabulous Christmas, to those

Hi  We all hear ya - its horrible when your a traditional winter weather lover hoping for snow - especially when the kids are desperate for it as well. Thats what makes the chase so exciting

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8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gfs consistent asever? 

F611E943-9EB2-4A48-BA68-5561B8C419CE.png

A6FFB02E-5652-4F31-8F63-72A72A5BD7DF.png

It's a wonder the GFS ever bothers going out to 384 anyways...Entertainment value at least

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12 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

It's a wonder the GFS ever bothers going out to 384 anyways...Entertainment value at least

Indeed, there has been the rare occasion when there was a strong signal for cold and it picked up way out in fi 2010 springs to mind but it’s as rare as rocking horse poo to be fair?

Edited by That ECM
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Well I did have an incline that things were indeed ready for a turning point and I'm not let down by that notion! Some real data to get ya teeth into this morning as we gain.   And the temp plots are by far the best yet as we move into January.  And pronounced blocking appears again with some notable 2m temp plots to boot..... has the Real winter ride now begun?!?  ... probably imo!!!!

IMG_0128.PNGTemp plot

IMG_0129.PNG500 geo-potential 

IMG_0130.PNG2m,s

Edited by tight isobar
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4 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Just don't get your hopes up too high for a few days!

 

I should say so!  Anyway, nice all the same to see something a little more positive for us poor old coldies!

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On 18/12/2019 at 15:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Just out of interest given we are now 7 days from Christmas lets see how close the models are from 7 days out ( I will revisit with the actual chart for comparison after Christmas) 

GFS gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.3690721d81a8dffe51e3a8fff3fbbe2c.png CPTEC cptecnh-0-192.thumb.png.fe869d854a1cc417d71a223e006afca2.png NCMRWF ncmrwfnh-0-180.thumb.png.3a087405547fb59bbd084e4428bf88b0.png FIM fimnh-0-180.thumb.png.10614ef8352df206b21ab1c00e2e7921.png 

 NASA/GEOS5 geosnh-0-180.thumb.png.cf91f9d5cbd09bc53128599dc6cf2406.png NAVGEM navgemnh-0-180.thumb.png.b5bbab42032678cfbdc306779c82b9c2.png GEM gemnh-0-180.thumb.png.f8947728effb2ee7890f5474a893b2c7.png ICON/DWD iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.5d53bc158ba38c742d0ce5b5846cf52d.png   

JMA JN192-21.thumb.gif.b3fbdcf4afe71cd0992bbf8d985eae9d.gif Many differences between them but key areas to me look to be Atlantic / UK and possibly most interesting the differences / struggles with the higher pressure toward Russia / Siberia.

 

 

gfsnh-0-6.thumb.png.ecfdb84aa6fd378c4207749f2763740c.png Looks like the NASA/GEOS5 was closest for the UK but the JMA done well with the position of the lows in the Atlantic, overall the models struggled with the higher pressure over the UK and over done the lower pressure / trough to the east.

On 23/12/2019 at 13:38, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 With the MJO going through short spells in phases 3, 4 & 5 and the outlook for phases 6 / 7 upcoming that looks to tie in with what the models are showing DecemberPhase3all500mb.thumb.gif.57d6fda57b54057b4776eadbc566966d.gifimage.thumb.png.49aa86bc5d6801e18ecd75d57eb6dcd4.png1834473907_DecemberPhase4all500mb(1).thumb.gif.f1865ce6845b6a11bed7a68d2a5c13b8.gifimage.thumb.png.ed17e838e671650fc7917d0e200ccc57.png DecemberPhase5all500mb.thumb.gif.ba5c2b1f9c53d25b793ea6f72660a742.gifimage.thumb.png.b903380de042645f458f286eef227e57.png

DecemberPhase6all500mb.thumb.gif.ce6f0605b46c91aa00f2b4b431bfb020.gif image.thumb.png.b7cf28e6d2b7d46372223ef9ada3c745.pngDecemberPhase7all500mb.thumb.gif.ec11da5ad0b7a90038d104ede89feb42.gifJanuaryPhase7All500mb.thumb.gif.2bfd9f5bfc644df84c6d8ffbebeb0faa.gifimage.thumb.png.b24bf236bafd48a2edc7dd604943f1ae.pngimage.thumb.png.7ad6e84d2b69778654e4e11b9b543449.png Gradually becoming more unsettled from the NW and a westerly theme (perhaps bordering on that dreaded "zonal" word popping up) phase 6 is a bit of a no mans land in terms of UK weather although still probably a westerly theme possibly weaker  not as unsettled and for us coldies phase 7 COULD be the key with a NE / E flow indicated, so I think I will be taking a break from model watching until signs of the MJO heading into phase 7 (hopefully) . 

Hope everyone had a lovely Christmas. Well we are now in phase 7 MJO although models only want to stay in phase 7 for a few days ( I would say the longer the better should any higher pressure develop like shown in the those phase 7 charts above to give us a better chance at something colder, though I think we are in a slight lag period and still stick with that general outlook above, also the phase 7 for January looks more favourable than that for December so ideally remaining in phase 7 heading into the start of January would be best but not sure if that will happen.)

Looking at the charts for the strat some warming perhaps developing during the first week of Jan and some hints of a possible displacement of the PV toward Scandinavia (though the models have struggled this year with strength of the PV and any warming so caution / low confidence with this)

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Some upstream amplification of the pattern showing it's hand,this from the Pacific ridge by day 10 so hopefully something will come of this and we see our high developing further north later.

EDH101-240.thumb.gif.b42e984834ef87db06be40a021457c9b.gif

Meantime it's a pretty much ridge/trough pattern across the Atlantic with the jet to the north keeping any high pressure around middle latitudes.Currently a lot of mild tropical maritime air in the flow and for many of us quite a benign spell of high pressure dominance for sometime-away from the north west that is where Atlantic fronts are currently bringing rain.

It looks like at the end of the week we may well import some colder air from the north west as fronts make more progress south east.

Thursday

fax120s.thumb.gif.fb703534b3860f97aeaf2c8fc536f85b.gif

We will have to see how this goes but it looks like another Atlantic high builds in which will likely mean some quite cold temperatures at the surface with night frosts again.

 

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I will take the thin blue red line please?

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.caa6c77f9ce7718276476642063e7236.gif

some great post's in here today,thanks

at least it will be dry for the next several days which is a bonus.

ensemble-rrrcum-london.thumb.gif.db186273bcf3ea45e561be7c8ada645d.gif

enjoy the rest of your day peeps and i will catch you all later.

 

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19 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Another nicked chart from kind subscribers to weatherbell...

There is distinct interest in this longe range EPS chart. 
ecmwf_ensemble_c00_nhemi_z500_anom_88736

 

 

As you say distinct interest as this is the chart that I see

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8873600.thumb.png.194b97475b4a97af189ee5c7d8aec440.png

Edited by knocker
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17 minutes ago, knocker said:

As you say distinct interest as this is the chart that I see

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8873600.thumb.png.194b97475b4a97af189ee5c7d8aec440.png

Looks even more impressive when viewed like this!

assuming I have got it right 

26CAC29D-B687-4D97-ADAE-7788A1FB47D7.jpeg

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Thanks @Mattwolves,Happy new year to you too,and enjoy your break,i am not back at work until the 6th:oldsmile:

just about to mention these few ens but in NH profile as i thought that they would look better:shok::oldgrin:

gensnh-2-1-384.thumb.png.034b74018f4e92edf9bc597eb2b15cb4.pnggensnh-4-1-384.thumb.png.7d4589f7b47c27458ff934b1281933d3.pnggensnh-18-1-384.thumb.png.18731d51330f427bbe498fc27359cc06.pnggensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.88fb8c02f8c07d4f1af960c000ab0e8d.png

but the one that stood out just after day ten was P8 with a very cold injection of cold from the north

gensnh-8-1-264.thumb.png.3ad30696acb95f670a161c56f9e70682.pnggensnh-8-0-276.thumb.png.667700d0ebf298d88371714104a4684f.png

12 gefs ens shows a clear cold snap around the 4th Jan and possibly another one around the 9th>,one to watch

today's v 26th

graphe3_1000_265_30___.thumb.png.085755e0631086e242783d159dbb68d9.pnggraphe3_1000_262_26___.thumb.png.baed624b9a1a9a41e7cc35f553a467f0.png

finally,a cracking sunset this evening.

DSC02664.thumb.JPG.8200f523714c9ea0a4243b5597ae39d5.JPGDSC02676.thumb.JPG.85a15957dc8a33e175ece70c79b45c96.JPG

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Good to take a break from model watching over the last week. The models showing a more mixed picture for the New Year period, than the week just gone, but everything seems to be just coming back on itself - in terms of the positioning of the current ridge. 

New Years Eve looking quite pleasant and a cold frosty start to 2020. Something milder and wetter 2nd then a flip to a cold polar shot on the 3rd, then high pressure back settling into its current position.

I've not been studying the longer term ensembles etc, just focusing on the near term at the moment.

 

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