Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - into Christmas

Recommended Posts

Even at T90, the ICON is making a better fist of building a ridge, here left, v 12z T96 right:

image.thumb.jpg.fffd7112e508de9f5d255e5680147b34.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.50c330d6445002ae83fdb0ee0848b8f4.jpg

So a signal for more amplification in the later stages that matter? We will see...

Edit, seems so,T120 v T126 on 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.aa270e6cefb0240c13f0230ada6f5b68.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9a4b0b9975ec684f4a12c0effb366b3b.jpg

WAA making more inroads at the very left of the chart...but end of the run, over to GFS.

Edited by Mike Poole

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still no signs of anything cold it seems. But good to see tentative signs of pressure rising. Don’t care if it’s mild, we just need an end to this thoroughly miserable weather which, with the odd day as an exception, has been going on for ages.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Showers for the far south and southeast should fizzle out later tonight with fog in places but for England and Wales some persistent rainfall will set in from tomorrow evening with heavier pulses continuing to push northwards into southern counties through tomorrow night into Thursday with a few exposed southern facing hills receiving potentially 2-3 inches of rainfall upto the middle of Thursday alone with widely 10-20mm by this point for more general towns and cities this leading to some flooding.. The Arome for tomorrow night and into Thursday morning shows the extent and persistents well.. 

4pm tomorrow.. 

UK_RAIN1_28.thumb.jpg.d7714a76327995516c17c6546de49bdb.jpg

8pm.. 

1522897495_UK_RAIN1_32(1).thumb.jpg.2d7ce700cfc1fee2ed4d2c4ea64bba8a.jpg

Midnight tomorrow night.. 

UK_RAIN1_36.thumb.jpg.009b06c7bbb88717383e3b21b06d2310.jpg

4am..

UK_RAIN1_40.thumb.jpg.60aab007eaf17131d5302d47f709caea.jpg

6am Thursday.. 

UK_RAIN1_42.thumb.jpg.671ba5f3bfe0e2445fd039aefdd37e4d.jpg

Rainfall accumulation upto 6am Thursday.. 👇

UK_RAINACCUM_42.thumb.jpg.b2c1a8210efdf98306c53227753aedef.jpg

Edited by jordan smith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The extended eps are not the extended gefs wrt means and anoms

Not surprised by that when you look at the ecm debilt ext ens. You can see a clear split between cold solutions and milder solutions from day 11 onwards. This clear split will mix out any mean/anomaly charts for that period. The next 2 to 3 days will resolve whether the cold solutions gain favour or the mild ones do. 

Screenshot_20191217-215509.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good evening peeps 😊

I think I got a tad excited earlier by some of the charts showing cold. I am a bit confused and scratching my head now after just listening to the BBC extended forcast. Christmas week staying unsettled with temperatures above the average and not a mention of any drier weather. I wonder what models and data they are using or is their forcast behind today's output? 

All the best 

regards 😊

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Not surprised by that when you look at the ecm debilt ext ens. You can see a clear split between cold solutions and milder solutions from day 11 onwards. This clear split will mix out any mean/anomaly charts for that period. The next 2 to 3 days will resolve whether the cold solutions gain favour or the mild ones do. 

Screenshot_20191217-215509.png

A cursory glance through all fifty solutions didn’t show much enthusiasm for any deep cold uppers by day 15 nor any obvious clustering of surface ridge placement ....the Icelandic clusters will tell us a bit more shortly 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Not surprised by that when you look at the ecm debilt ext ens. You can see a clear split between cold solutions and milder solutions from day 11 onwards. This clear split will mix out any mean/anomaly charts for that period. The next 2 to 3 days will resolve whether the cold solutions gain favour or the mild ones do. 

Screenshot_20191217-215509.png

I was going to touch up on this earlier in my post but i wanted to give it a couple of days to see if there was further adjustments to a colder set but i remember the last couple of days that these colder ens wasn't showing,so yes,a def trend for more members to trend colder in that set

also and by no means that this leads to colder scenario's but the NAO/AO have trended more into neg territory than previous,if we slow the Atlantic train down then the Arctic train can make further stops west.

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.5e48f728356cf7d457973e73f3903b90.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.798ef918caffec10be33476368a45c20.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm gfs looks better at 180!!cold wedge of heights right across the uk and lows disrupting under it!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Slowly! Slowly! catchy monkey

-4's across the country Christmas morning...

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.55494407400ec57b5ab288fcc2bd3934.pnggfsnh-1-180.thumb.png.e6b4fa9a2826f00fc3b51a7e47f34cad.png

Lovely and frosty Christmas day.👌

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very interesting start to this run, watch this ridge gain latitude in a minute.

image.thumb.png.5d6164ecb56207cc2c7090d478de19aa.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Lovely and frosty Christmas day.👌

Could we push to a snowy one?

it's still eight days away and the runs are getting colder for the big day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS showing a cold ridge building through the UK just in time for christmas and moving northwards, cold surface air and light winds. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here comes the pub run!! High pressure building over the UK and slowly migrating towards Scandinavia. 

image.thumb.png.8bc3dcb0d0a8710a9c592bf22ca6e2b5.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 Where has the second low gone? Spain👍

2399FD86-7F9E-4DF3-BF39-72312C5B0343.png

81792CCD-F07B-4DEC-8469-27271799734B.png

Edited by That ECM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Very interesting start to this run, watch this ridge gain latitude in a minute.

image.thumb.png.5d6164ecb56207cc2c7090d478de19aa.png

It's a perfect run,is it following the ens and mean,we shall see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's a perfect run,is it following the ens and mean,we shall see.

I would certainly bank this run for the festive week. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, blizzard81 said:

I would certainly bank this run for the festive week. 

forget the bank,i am putting a punt on it,i am not telling a sole on this for the fear it will go t**s up

BTW forget day ten,this looks good before that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

She rides!  Pub run T228

image.thumb.jpg.7246c7102c00008e1cb48ae7526026a7.jpg

I'm sick of things turning blue, and the associated rain, good to see this...could get some way into Greenland too...

Edited by Mike Poole

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

forget the bank,i am putting a punt on it,i am not telling a sole on this for the fear it will go t**s up

BTW forget day ten,this looks good before that.

At about  t180 but gfs won’t have it nailed at t180. Nice to view and would be great to see this on future runs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Met Office on board for high pressure to take over Christmas,how long for and exact position still a 

bit in the clouds,but a definite chance of some very cold frosty nights and temperatures struggling 

during the days.All onboard for a roller coaster ride into the festive season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...