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Model output discussion - into Christmas


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We have a very important few days coming regards to cold prospects. If you look at the 18z ens. We have a difference of opinion on how we going to go forward regarding the above matter from boxing down onwards. Most are mild or average and some go cold. It's a very short time range for this much spread really and I think anything could happen so will we see a trend to cold or mild. We shall see. Night all

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Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon

Right folks, due to family commitments and a lot of travelling, that's me over and out till the end of the year... So i would just like to wish each and everyone of you a fabulous Christmas, to those

Hi  We all hear ya - its horrible when your a traditional winter weather lover hoping for snow - especially when the kids are desperate for it as well. Thats what makes the chase so exciting

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5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Well the number one model ukmo Oz implodes at 144hrs!!!not a good start

GFS not much better, pub run strikes again!! ? FI still pretty early though, but unlikely to revert back to the 18z solution you’d think!! 

Edited by Ali1977
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6 minutes ago, swfc said:

Well the number one model ukmo Oz implodes at 144hrs!!!not a good start

Yet also different to what the 0z of the previous day was offering!

 

models have got no clue atm

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS not much better, pub run strikes again!! ?

Nope.gfs and ukmo look very similar and going flat.latest BBC live forecast just showed wet and windy weather from the west later next week.ukmo -showing the low?

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1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Yet also different to what the 0z of the previous day was offering!

 

models have got no clue atm

Fair enough.if the ukmo isn't worth a mention were doomed

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Ukmo all over the place now.miles different than its previous run.

Feel like giving up till after Xmas,looks very unlikely any meaningful cold will make it through.how predictable.

Just always too much energy in the Atlantic.

Edited by SLEETY
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30 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ukmo all over the place now.miles different than its previous run.

Feel like giving up till after Xmas,looks very unlikely any meaningful cold will make it through.how predictable,not!

Look to the nw.the northern arm of the jet and euro heighths are crippling the UK for a decent cold shot.if a small ridge to our west is the only hope it's going to be a long winter imo.gfs  Oz is horrific .chasing ten day plus charts in fi?

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Going to be a belting deep FI, once again a push of heights from the retrogressing Euro High up to Greenland early Jan 

0D497C23-0B25-40B7-A6EE-074740902039.png

Edited by Ali1977
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8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Going to be a belting deep FI, once again a push of heights from the retrogressing Euro High up to Greenland early Jan 

0D497C23-0B25-40B7-A6EE-074740902039.png

The heighths are going into the USA.think Greenland is destroyed under the PV in fi?severe gales and wet over UK?

Edited by swfc
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It's beginning to look like one of those familiar UK winters where no actual decent cold spell has materialised despite showing up every now and then in Fi in certain models. December is almost done and I don't have any flakes, might have to wait for spring as usual lol?

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By day 10 the HP is once again moving west out of Europe, but just look at that 850 temp in southern France - you’d be skiing in speedos in that. When has the alps ever had 16c at 1500m around new year - never I imagine.

I also imagine these 850s are a huge outlier - hope!! 

1D9F36D2-F93A-4A23-869A-8E11F02707EB.png

8E6E7AA3-79C8-4EB4-A17F-E701E52A7AEA.png

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ECM will be very much on the mild side again,the 144 chart and what happens at 168 looks very suspect,but still doesn't mean that UK will get any cold weather,or decent looking synoptics,they are obviously dirty words to the weather gods during the 3 winter months,lol.

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i dont  know what the gfs was drinking  last  night   but  deep lala land  its saying   one day  we could be flooded  out  next day we could be snowed in!!

gfs-2-324.png

gfs-2-348.png

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Funny enough the GFS 18z has been performing the best out of all the GFS runs lately: 

WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

However, it has a reputation for the odd run that goes awry and last night's was definitely against all recent evidence of the upcoming 10-days. However, it was an op run so we cannot as yet remove a similar development from our equation, so maybe 80% the GFS 0z take and 20% a higher-lat high in difference to the 18z? We still have a couple of days where this could change, but this morning, GEM, UKMO, GFS and the main GEFS cluster is as you were. No surprise the endless promising D6 UKMO charts never came to anything

Post-D9 and things remain fluid, hard to pick the bones from them, so probably a few more days for some clarity.

 

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Seriously!!!after reading the comments on here i thought all 3 models look horrendous early on!!ukmo okay that looks really bad but the gfs between 120 and 144 hours similar to the 18z in sending the shortwave south east and ecm does the same thing and is a big improvement early on compared to 12z!!by the what the hell has the ukmo been on!!after being so consistent its gone loopy!!still trust that model peeps?

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Cant we just turn them all on and off again.? I mean we all know they flip flop when clueless with different output from run to run but this just seems a total mess, a complete mess, not even any variations of a theme.

 

For me it's looking like a continuation of wet and windy.....but that strat warming showing last night will get me through the day!

Still...the chase goes on!

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The small scale probably isn’t quite sorted yet but larger scale is but ECM and UKMO show why I am sceptical of a calm Xmas AND Boxing Day.  I think the transient ridge will be more prominent after Boxing Day and these 2 models advertise the way forward.  Deep FI on GFS looks plausible as a set up for early Jan but the way this winter has started...am anticipating a watered down (less cold) version and more wind and lot more rain scenario.   
The Beeb think a frosty and foggy spell around Xmas Day for a few days before wind and rain move in.

The rain moving in this evening for the southern counties.....I don’t think it’ll look pleasant in the morning with flood scenes very likely 

BFTP

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17 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

What a complete and utter waste of time the 18z is. Never right is it ???

You are right. How many times has it teased us over the years? Too many to count. Don't know why we give it the time of day. 

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