Model output discussion - into Christmas

[IDO]

By T240 the window is as good as gone due to the tPV vortex migrating towards our sector and flattening it all out:

This factor if correct limits the longevity of any block, the Arctic high half-life is small and once gone, the floodgates open especially with the Russian/Siberian high still ruining our chances.

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

I hear what you say and possible.at plus ten days highly unlikely to verify blizzard

I totally agree with you there. 

[IDO]

...the good news is that not even the GEFS suite knows what is happening after D10 so we cannot rule anything out post this topple.

Edited December 20, 2019 by IDO

[Methuselah]

12Z looking better at T+345...Hope it's a trend and not another wild goose chase...?

    

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

12Z looking better at T+345...Hope it's a trend and not another wild goose chase...?

    

Well the signals are there.b+q lining up with mfi.bicenterial backdraught gaining strength also!!!!

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

In English  

The mfi and b+q is a give away.anyway plenty of forcing on the nhp .for us brings little wintry but it will be dry hopefully

[Tim Bland]

Who’s up for another SSW wild goose chase

[chris55]

After the endless cold wet miserable weather we have been seeing, it’s a ray of Christmas cheer on the UKMO tonight. 
 

Cold and settled (for most) over the Christmas period.....some lovely crisp mornings and sunny walks hopefully  that’s a major thumbs up for me.

UKMO

 

Then there is the progression from this point - will the Atlantic push succeed and topple the high or can the high hold on forcing some WAA and subsequent easterly......

Always nice to have something to watch over Xmas. 

 

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, swfc said:

The mfi and b+q is a give away.anyway plenty of forcing on the nhp .for us brings little wintry but it will be dry hopefully

What personally think I, wild chase it will goose be. Innit!

    

Capische?

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

After the endless cold wet miserable weather we have been seeing, it’s a ray of Christmas cheer on the UKMO tonight. 
 

Cold and settled (for most) over the Christmas period.....some lovely crisp mornings and sunny walks hopefully  that’s a major thumbs up for me.

UKMO

 

Then there is the progression from this point - will the Atlantic push succeed and topple the high or can the high hold on forcing some WAA and subsequent easterly......

Always nice to have something to watch over Xmas. 

 

Yep agree.coudnt watch Harry potter or the Wizard of Oz again!!!

[swfc]

EC gives the UK a dry Xmas day .cool but not sure about sunny.still any port in a storm as they say 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

EC gives the UK a dry Xmas day .cool but not sure about sunny.still any port in a storm as they say 

Very progressive with the Atlantic unfortunately -

144 looks horrendous.

[LRD]

Things are trending worse if anything

Bravo to Icon if Boxing Day proves to be a wet and windy one. Icon was the first to spot this tonight

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very progressive with the Atlantic unfortunately -

144 looks horrendous.

Yes Atlantic back mate I agree.24 hrs of dry weather??one or more models are looking on a dodgy wicket here

Edited December 20, 2019 by swfc

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very progressive with the Atlantic unfortunately -

144 looks horrendous.

Yup. ECM,GEM,GFS then UKMO at 144 below. UKMO the better, followed by GFS.

[LRD]

Vile. Rain everywhere and likely 15c in the SE

Jeez, what an awful winter climate we have developed over the last 30 years or so (if you like proper, seasonal cold winters that is)

[northwestsnow]

There are no words..

 

[Methuselah]

Oh dear, the GEFS 12Z ensembles are nae exactly mouthwatering, are they?!

    

    

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

We should get some idea from the extended chart at 168t later. GFS certainly more progressive. ICON has a low slap bang over the Irish Sea. Seems UKMO holding its guns towards a much drier scenario post Christmas. No common agreement presently with the models even at 144t. Will be interesting who gets it right. We will know on Christmas Day ! Now we await the Canadian and Euro Model latest version.

C

ECM heading for tropical swamp land at 144t. GEM heading for Bartlet. Looks like UKMO on its own at 144t. Now to view the 168t extended.

C

[swfc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

There are no words..

 

It's a shocker no doubt.i think an MP would struggle to put any spin on that!!!

[LRD]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

ECM heading for tropical swamp land at 144t. GEM heading for Bartlet. Looks like UKMO on its own at 144t. Now to view the 168t extended.

C

God, I've just seen the GEM and nearly threw up the chilli I had for dinner

Jan/Feb 1989 written all over this:

[northwestsnow]

There is potential for ridging in the Atlantic if only the flow of energy would give us all a break..

[LRD]

ECM painting a similar picture to the GEM - this is very close to Bartlett High territory

I try and look at the positive in most things but this is shocking. Worst day's model watching of the winter so far. And that's saying something. "Bah! Humbug!" from the models and no Merry Christmas

[Beanz]

12 minutes ago, LRD said:

God, I've just seen the GEM and nearly threw up the chilli I had for dinner

Jan/Feb 1989 written all over this:

Well this won’t be throwing any chilli(y) our way! 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Beanz

[Methuselah]

If things carry on like this, we'll need someone to enlist the mighty NAVGEM...Or, should that fail -- the BOM??