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Paul

Model output discussion - into Christmas

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Well, if something is 'a foot', the 12Z is the Achilles' heel!:shok:😱 

h500slp.pngh500slp.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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12z charts Gem gfs icon met Office beginning to show pressure rises over or around uk in Christmas 

period.Perhaps a dry frosty festive period on the cards,all depends on where and if it decides to build.

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Hardly a surprise the op has gone with mild when there wasn’t really any consensus on the 6z run with the mean going for above average 850s! Also with Ecm firmly in the mild camp and the UKMO in no mans land!

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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Don't worry about the op - it is more or less a synoptic outlier - perhaps would be more correct to say its right at the very edge of the envelope as it isn't impossible that it could verify but it always happens where the op jumps around the suite at that range when you have a potential pattern that is advertised in the suite.

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I see your 7 and raise you 19 on the GFS ensembles 

GEFS are the best they have been in a while let’s hope it’s the start of something more blocked and not just another garden path

7E323467-B3B9-45B8-AD96-B3446A57DA63.png

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't worry about the op - it is more or less a synoptic outlier - perhaps would be more correct to say its right at the very edge of the envelope as it isn't impossible that it could verify but it always happens where the op jumps around the suite at that range when you have a potential pattern that is advertised in the suite.

Effectively it is not part of the ensemble suite as they are different models, so we will see whether the old GFS or the new GFS has a better handle on the background signals. 

Certainly I remain an advocate of the old GEFS in FI, so am hopeful that we may see something of a better synoptic as we end 2019. JFF at D16 the GEFS members:

gens_panel_hoo9.png  The op 1529180934_gfs-0-384(1).thumb.png.e107103089b5a600f51a957968347824.png

 

Edited by IDO
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1 minute ago, IDO said:

Effectively it is not part of the ensemble suite as they are different models, so we will see whether the old GFS or the new GFS has a better handle on the background signals. 

Certainly I remain an advocate of the old GEFS in FI, so am hopeful that we may see something of a better synoptic as we end 2019. JFF at D16 the GEFS members:

gens_panel_hoo9.png

 

They have to keep banging the drum now, of course there will be downgrades along the way but what you cannot afford is 2 or 3 suites on the bounce downgrading as it tries to break the T240 barrier, i have never seen a recovery in those circumstances where an E'ly then goes on to verify, what to look for now in the next few days is flatliners between -10 and -15c in quantity - still odds against this for me but at least there is interest.

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Day 14 means are about as useful as a chocolate teapot, the low res just won’t be picking up the usual spoilers that stop heights building too our north. One thing that is remaining strong is that PV around eastern canada and IMO whilst that is there it’s going to be very difficult.

Happy that heights appear to be building over us over the festive period, some nice dry days over Christmas will be very welcome! 

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Just now, Catacol said:

FI ECM image posted from Weatherbell on another forum has the same Canadian pattern as the GEFS we have free access to. Westerly momentum, with apparently another torque thrown in for good measure, creating a ridge over Alaska and dropping a strong trough in a SE trajectory over Canada and US. Consequent ridge support over Greenland and with luck momentum from a southerly tracking Pacific jet to aid in ensuring any -NAO isn’t too west based. Note also a convection signal in the MJO charts I posted a few mins ago for westerly momentum in the central Atlantic certainly in week 1....and that should keep the door open to a southerly tracking Atlantic jet.

Im thinking today we might see NWP upgrading for cold between Xmas and NY as we move through towards the weekend 

that's next Wednesday courtesy of missing data  …………..

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Day 14 means are about as useful as a chocolate teapot, the low res just won’t be picking up the usual spoilers that stop heights building too our north. One thing that is remaining strong is that PV around eastern canada and IMO whilst that is there it’s going to be very difficult.

Happy that heights appear to be building over us over the festive period, some nice dry days over Christmas will be very welcome! 

as a one off, you are right.  if it begins to gain continuity then you are wrong ….

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Just for interest purposes only obviously but the Gfs in the extended unreliable time frame shows a very good example of explosive cyclogenesis with an area of low pressure exiting to the east of newfoundland rapidly developing into a violent storm system and tracking quickly northeast to the north of the UK producing a long stretch of 80+mph gusts with the central pressure bottoming out at an incredible 923 milibars! Worst of the winds stay to the north of Scotland, Ofcourse this is unlikely to verify but it's a very impressive system and would certainly give Scotland a dramatic start to the year as big Ben chimes! 🎊💨

328538196_EUROPE_PRMSL_312(2).thumb.jpg.7cf18b7858fda6869bdcbf932cf35e18.jpg

511745432_EUROPE_PRMSL_324(2).thumb.jpg.7dbb30891eaa7b57e18341d12dcc399f.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_336.thumb.jpg.7910014abc33cc0169009d2602b2f448.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_348.thumb.jpg.07614708eb327db5dea83df0e87e9c3a.jpg

Wind gusts at 10m.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_336.thumb.jpg.cbf1a8f5db4a91eb41469cbf2573fab2.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_348.thumb.jpg.9c1bef53120c9b6e57a92b9dc317fd40.jpg

Powerful jetstream indicated by the red. 👇

EUROPE_JETSTREAM_324.thumb.jpg.becf80667ded4918f571f206569e516f.jpg

EUROPE_JETSTREAM_348.thumb.jpg.d084aa521bc0044c2d2cfd9ef5fbef4d.jpg

Another jetstream chart with the low pressure shown engaging with it while it develops. 

Midday 30th December.. 👇

12_312_250mbjet.thumb.png.7659958230876dc8de852651d80084c6.png

Midnight 31st..

12_324_250mbjet.thumb.png.5403c8cb8d6993abe2c6973734b6fc25.png

3pm 31st..

12_339_250mbjet.thumb.png.05d57660a8ebb7bb9ee2532e23efa074.png

3am 1st January.. 

12_351_250mbjet.thumb.png.9d0de3161c02105b3d1946172290edf1.png

Upper air temperatures.. 👇

916608625_EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_324(1).thumb.jpg.e009a606dbb19d74c03d02dbc4fc77ad.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_336.thumb.jpg.522abea7a3afe53b4c2ef66ec02d1c53.jpg

870692012_EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_348(1).thumb.jpg.453d0f2849caeef7b47c1546ca329d3b.jpg

tenor.thumb.gif.29fc7b5be9d7c25934f49ea0069a2b82.gif

Edited by jordan smith
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The GFS ensembles are looking very good, much better for blocking and potential cold than the raw 850 temps would suggest.

Here are the 2m temps for Central England - that is a very strong signal at that range.

graphe6_1000_263_74___.gif

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1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS hasn’t got a scooby past day 7. Look at the difference over Greenland in FI between 06z and 12z. It goes from 1035mb to 995mb! £10 says it’s a mild outlier 🤝

A57F1969-56DF-4A6A-B637-22FC020007E4.png

27857F37-F6DD-4C61-BF2B-4B7FBF0C1356.png

 

CD259F95-9E54-46B9-9490-06E9FB9A40A7.gif

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The graph form looks good towards the end as mentioned above but here are the mean 850's and height anomaly's

gensnh-21-0-384.thumb.png.3e8b065aa877ff0258081d4d8c5e0da5.pnggensnh-21-5-384.thumb.png.476aaea75d1cfccdc6376008a5b6d9ee.png

a mean of -4 into most of the country and that +ve height anomaly in a perfect position to our NW and -ve anomaly to our south.

ECM rolling out now. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Dare i say it!!!

that's a damn good mean at 16 days  out:shok:

gensnh-21-1-384.thumb.png.fb28d6cf4d007c7df636adc028ba0c2b.png

somethings afoot and i hope it will be a foot of snow soon.

footprint-on-snow-stock-picture-2099948.thumb.jpg.41b2b96afab94609eb7ef318b53ebadf.jpg😜

 

So that's the LIA Footprint BFTP keeps referring to! Fred?:oldlaugh:

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