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Paul

Model output discussion - into Christmas

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Assuming that the 12z were the eureka moments of clarity from the models, that may not be the case, but quite possible bearing in mind we have been led up the garden path already this winter, then all we have is another topple but further east. We therefore do not get the cold associated with the slide:

anim_vey8.gif

If indeed this rather tame outcome is correct then we are really going to be wary of those false background signals, and remember they were also overridden last winter, that may suggest forcing to the pattern in some instances.

Tomorrow will decide either way.

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Writing what off Steve,nothings happened yet ??

What he means is there was a bunch a people the last few days who were on the lines "winter is over" or it be a mild January etc 

That aside still a lot of uncertainty but ECM has joined the wet and possibly mild camp with the GFS 

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I don't know about the Big 3 (would be the Big 7, were the GEM, ICON, BOM and NAVGEM all showing a snow-filled winter wonderland?) but the idea of an ENE'erly stonker is near non-existent in the GEFS 12Z ensembles...? ?

Can't quite recall them all, but wasn't Big 7 Judge Dread's last single??:oldgrin:

t850Buckinghamshire.png    prmslBuckinghamshire.png

t2mBuckinghamshire.png    prcpBuckinghamshire.png

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Sticking to the reliable - which is preety short at present, 120 hrs best, models are in agreement of a pressure rise from the south just in time for christmas, which is pleasing to view, given all the rain we've had in recent weeks - shouldn't be any problems for people travelling around. There is some form of agreement thereafter for the 3 day christmas period (24-26th) of a generally settled picture with heights building through the UK. Difficult to call what temps will be like at the surface, there won't be much wind about to stir things, could be a rather foggy affair, and probably preety chilly, temps struggling I imagine, with any frost very slow to clear - a seasonal christmas at least. 

I'm not commenting on anything post Boxing Day, as this remains uncertain, and fully expect the models to play around with position of heights on future runs.

 

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think its a given we will get a seasonal Christmas this year with temps dropping away christmas Eve, sadly no snow but we get second prize...

Thereafter i suspect EC det might be an outlier...

The op looks an outlier looking at the mean . ?

Edited by ICE COLD
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10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Off the scale outlier towards the end on the ECM op . 

B4F7F7D0-8A08-4237-AB8A-CA3C769BFD76.png

Maybe an outlier in terms of T850's but not really a synoptic outlier. In fact very consistent from yesterday's 12z mean:

Yesterday 12z>>EDE1-240.thumb.gif.f9a8d9a51f6782feb29879221d27f45f.gifToday 12z:EDE1-216.thumb.gif.7eac44f06cc510c82f643435a28e6f8b.gif

It is quite reasonable to assume that the above development is the most likely outcome. Variation on the upper temps in such situations would not preclude that. Also we saw the GFS 12z and 06z have different early stages but at D10 they had converged, maybe suggesting the underlying state's direction of travel is as the mean suggests?

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16 minutes ago, IDO said:

Maybe an outlier in terms of T850's but not really a synoptic outlier. In fact very consistent from yesterday's 12z mean:

Yesterday 12z>>EDE1-240.thumb.gif.f9a8d9a51f6782feb29879221d27f45f.gifToday 12z:EDE1-216.thumb.gif.7eac44f06cc510c82f643435a28e6f8b.gif

It is quite reasonable to assume that the above development is the most likely outcome. Variation on the upper temps in such situations would not preclude that. Also we saw the GFS 12z and 06z have different early stages but at D10 they had converged, maybe suggesting the underlying state's direction of travel is as the mean suggests?

Looking at them two charts you would suggest more of a ridging up to a scandi high with the sharpening of the trough. That's if its correct of course.

Edited by joggs
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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s not just us missing out on snow at Xmas, look how much above average the temp is in  USA and Canada!! Not many cold anomaly’s in the whole NH really, apart from Alaska !! 

3D065398-084A-4E2B-A76C-08B4D09CF20C.png

Keep in mind that above average at UK latitudes in central Canada means about minus 20 degrees instead of the usual minus 30. Even in tropical Ottawa, where it's warming up from -22 to +7, I reckon there'll be snow on the ground.

It is good to see Europe closer to average with the GFS showing a significant drop in temperatures over the continent. That probably won't affect us, but it *can*, and that's a start.

Edited by halny

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Calm yourselves folks... ECM mean shows mainly settled spell throughout the Xmas period, especially away from the NW. Could be some fog and frost, so at least that would be seasonal! No point in stressing over no major cold spell being flagged up just yet. After all the recent rainfall, and with more to come the next few days, it will at least mean you can get about without having to worry about waterlogged conditions. Just enjoy the moment, and have a stonking Xmas, and get ready to dust yaselfs down for the big cold chase in January.. Bring it on I say. ??

 

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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7 minutes ago, joggs said:

Looking at them two charts you would suggest more of a ridging up to a scandi high with the sharpening of the trough. That's if its correct of course.

Yes, at that range, the usual caveats that the models may be wrong. I would just say that the most likely outcome is as per the mean with support from the ops and the sad fact a topple is the usual route of travel especially with no upstream blocking.

GEM mean also similar but more progressive:

1650928651_gensnh-21-1-240(3).thumb.png.57b3dbd244e815f4f12efccd8d20cb8e.png

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image.thumb.png.06b351f6dd599148f775860361bec5af.png

Amazing to see this ridge building only a few days out now where we didn't before. beyond 25/26 is anyone's guess. 

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6 minutes ago, Northumberland snowman said:

Not much to be optimistic about here 

Screenshot_20191219-205142_Samsung Internet.jpg

But there is here, the ECM Op was a huge outlier with regard temp At day 10. Decent downward trend and a cluster going really cold, shame we can’t see if the really cold lot are from an Easterly feed. Looking at the spread, Boxing Day is FI as that’s when the cold cluster branch off and the less cold start scattering.

68C313ED-C352-4F2B-9C86-321508D488B6.png

Edited by Ali1977
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1 hour ago, swfc said:

Writing what off Steve,nothings happened yet ??

The 'chances of cold' - nothing is finalised either way which is as per the post...

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The Gem gives snow for northern England and north Wales for Christmas day with a low running into cold air with some quite heavy snow for northern areas and north Wales during Christmas day although another soaking to southern and central parts. Ecm and Gfs having none of it Gfs brings that low through the far south on Christmas eve bringing some rain to the south and Ecm has hardly anything. Think Gem has got a bit too excited that scenario unlikely to verify. ?:shok:

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_138.thumb.jpg.d986e589311a37eb7c86cc623805e021.jpg

1036761336_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_144(2).thumb.jpg.f0438a4068d6caff29fd3428ddf77048.jpg

overview_20191219_12_138.thumb.jpg.b36c8bd0019cc6d400011c093949e676.jpg

overview_20191219_12_144.thumb.jpg.c4817bb15fe25f7c25017d4a584656e2.jpg

GFS.. 

overview_20191219_12_105.thumb.jpg.9c3290fd6db97535b29140edbad1fdc5.jpg

overview_20191219_12_111.thumb.jpg.07e356de5619ad4e4645063ad1ba9da2.jpg

Ecmwf.. 

overview_20191219_12_126.thumb.jpg.3085aeef731e7034978834118372ea25.jpg

33379976_overview_20191219_12_150(1).thumb.jpg.85570a817da4e3cf1d5a33725ea75185.jpg

A mostly dry day for Christmas is most likely and quite cold with a frost to start. 

Tonights wet weather with the Arome.. 

11pm..

radarrate_20191219_12_011.thumb.jpg.3d0e5d519e34fbb82eaf2a1bec437a8c.jpg

Midnight tonight.. 

radarrate_20191219_12_012.thumb.jpg.8c098d2e677a3da07218d3cb1b6eb499.jpg

1am tomorrow..

radarrate_20191219_12_013.thumb.jpg.72caeda9e346e8ddde29810682ec1696.jpg

2am..

radarrate_20191219_12_014.thumb.jpg.1b66dd35252918957003254ca05d70fc.jpg

3am..

radarrate_20191219_12_015.thumb.jpg.f84eaecd4cea30b5b2e461a5f65f5db0.jpg

4am.. 

radarrate_20191219_12_016.thumb.jpg.9615431fed8964679934c65a06fb07d9.jpg

A very wet night to come for southern southeastern and Eastern England with heavy and potentially torrential rain in a few places with 20-40mm accumulating in places. This rain lingering for central and Eastern England into mid morning before clearing during the afternoon tomorrow. 

Edited by jordan smith
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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 168 looks very similar to ICON 12z

6BCA1FEC-5ABC-4DAC-9458-45B2A0EBB29E.thumb.png.a0299c1b364677f7295947dd05fdb29e.png

Looks like good continuation from this mornings 00z 168 hour chart!!!way better than ecm thats for sure!! 

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No comments on the 18z??

Big upgrade imo with the jet looking to undercut as early as Christmas Eve and a Scandinavian High trying it's hardest 24hours later!! 

Baby upgrades early on can lead to the holy grail once the trend continues!!

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Brilliant 18z gfs!!scandi high and cold air coming in from the east at 168 hours!!

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Indeed cold uppers several hundred miles further West by as early as the 27th. Folks these early upgrades can and do happen!

Cold frosty high = no thanks!

Bring on the Easterly!!

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