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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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Look at these enormous and strong ridges doing long term damage to the PV on some of these GEFS members.

image.thumb.png.61dbbd843e0013fbd4efe6397145ed74.png

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I hope ecm is near the mark for the festive period because I’m sick of rain.  Cool dry and pleasant will do for now. 

FE50E952-A654-4551-B82C-78BF09555EAE.png

EC17171C-1851-43CF-82C3-8EA7288982A8.png

A018B2C0-DCCC-4EB4-91C9-720628384CFC.png

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image.thumb.png.981bce8a7e20256560e2b08f766e9a54.png

Pretty remarkable that we don't achieve an undercut on this run at 180h from this position.  Feeling cold nonetheless around Christmas, despite a complete lack of agreement of how exactly this comes about! (ECM at 192h for comparison)

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Furthermore, deep FI again presenting a highly amplified NH pattern which I've been banging the drum for for a few days now:

image.thumb.png.4f261a39784c09a9776081bf16d00625.png

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2 hours ago, Mucka said:

GFS getting very interesting

 

gfsnh-0-180.pnggfsnh-1-186.png

 

I'm sure every cold and snow fan would love to see this signal firm up and get cross model support in the reliable.

 

EDIT

We can add GEM to the chilly Xmas morning list, so the big day may yet feel seasonable at least 

gemnh-1-144.png?00gemnh-0-144.png?00

UKMO is nice and chilly for Christmas too.  It’s not going to be tee shirt weather.  I’m sceptical of a calm Christmas Day/Boxing Day but as long as it’s seasonal...that’ll do for now.  
 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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ECM OP develops a great big UK high just after Xmas:

 

image.pngimage.pngimage.png

 

GFS OP goes right off on one today and is a huge outlier. Ensemble mean touches 1030mb, so it would appear that the high is a strong bet:

image.png

Edited by mb018538
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So at last some clarity inter and cross model on the height rise in the UK region around D8. Still uncertainty as to how it develops and where it goes from there as the D9 GEFS highlight:

gens_panel_uut8.png

The GEFS post D12 show no synoptic value so probably FI is fluid until the UK ridge is nailed, though the long-wave pattern suggests a flat upstream with the tPV regrouping and any heights around our region under pressure.

The ECM D10 will no doubt change, as it does, so that pattern could be better, although is a GEFS cluster and GEM in that ballpark.

Christmas looks cool and dry for most. 

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17 minutes ago, IDO said:

So at last some clarity inter and cross model on the height rise in the UK region around D8. Still uncertainty as to how it develops and where it goes from there as the D9 GEFS highlight:

gens_panel_uut8.png

The GEFS post D12 show no synoptic value so probably FI is fluid until the UK ridge is nailed, though the long-wave pattern suggests a flat upstream with the tPV regrouping and any heights around our region under pressure.

The ECM D10 will no doubt change, as it does, so that pattern could be better, although is a GEFS cluster and GEM in that ballpark.

Christmas looks cool and dry for most. 

Post D12 perb 15 has got it??

EC09EBB4-13C6-4D78-89DE-8D0AB7FD1102.png

Edited by That ECM
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Definitely been a while since this type of huge disagreement. ECM not looking to back down so let's hope GFS falls into line. Would be a very nice frosty christmas.

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Still very mixed this morning but drying up looks likely after the weekend and some cold easterlies back 'on the table' !

image.thumb.png.cee71c6caa8f3e167687212b8a0d1cc6.png

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Still uncertainty regarding finer details over Xmas period but if ECM is on the money then a nice seasonal few days with plenty of frost and fog around. With the sun being at its weakest temps would really struggle under the high with some areas staying near zero I would think. 
 

Going forward on this run some milder air will begin to wrap around the top of the high bringing a slightly warmer feel to Scotland and NI.
 

But as it stands the chance of an easterly setting up after the initial high is not out of the question.

EC over xmas

CBE7E7C1-10A4-41A1-BBB2-7FBCC4C87808.thumb.png.6ee4e8295d3aceb47983ae6c5227382d.pngB4238462-AE4D-40C6-A5C1-BEE775DF8214.thumb.png.aa3f9cc22446af0054dbf50830314a0b.png69A3857A-C95F-4140-84F2-71B133D85FA7.thumb.png.714a8c50fb4e4fd3bb1dc3fdfa0772cd.pngE661048C-8D32-4FC8-B058-05672A14C93D.thumb.png.5ebe85b9a41aaf27d8806810525f925a.png
 

Fantastic run for me as I do love the crisp frosty weather over Christmas.

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28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC shows temps really struggling over the Christmas period..:cold-emoji:(some very cold night in particular).

So hope the run comes off and we at least get a seasonal festive week ..

EC is actually flatter when compared to it’s mean, maybe more of a UK high which might keep things chilly for longer. 

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Well, here we are again...a trough just W and NW of Blighty and warm air covering much of Europe: rain, rain and even more rain!?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Come on, Mr Weather...gissa break!??

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GFS looking very isolated in regards to pressure rise over or around uk.ECM,MET,GEM all keen on High 

pressure to take over festive season with cold frosty nights and struggling day time temperatures.

Very interesting times for the big two,will GFS or ECM lose some credibility over this key pattern change

if of course it takes place.

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ECM and GFS ops going on their merry ways:

1252670178_ECE1-192(3).thumb.gif.99b1f4627815ea50cacd8e744cd88af1.gif1500551323_gfseu-0-180(2).thumb.png.46cbfed9f6e496898c94648fd034fcd3.png

So still different routes as we pass D8.

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8 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM and GFS ops going on their merry ways:

1252670178_ECE1-192(3).thumb.gif.99b1f4627815ea50cacd8e744cd88af1.gif1500551323_gfseu-0-180(2).thumb.png.46cbfed9f6e496898c94648fd034fcd3.png

So still different routes as we pass D8.

Which makes me think the middle ground would be a mega easterly is on the 12zs? lol!!worse come to worse a cold high over the uk!

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12 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Interesting post from GP in the Stray thread regarding. 'Very possible 'SSW in Jan

Yeah in Mid January we could have a SWW which might lead to something by Mid February 

or we could talk about what the models are showing now. 

gfseuw-2-192.png?6

 

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10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Yeah in Mid January we could have a SWW which might lead to something by Mid February 

or we could talk about what the models are showing now. 

gfseuw-2-192.png?6

 

I haven’t read it but with an e qbo arriving, surely we have a better chance of a qtr ??

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