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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


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Seriously? I have been on this thread for ten years and with all due respect to @Glacier Point he has called it wrong many times. (As I’m sure he would admit) Please revert back to his posts from

Are we really writing-off the whole of December and January, on the basis of one post from one poster---or am I going stark raving mad?!

Evening All- Today is probably the first day that many will start to take notice of the ECM ( & of course the UKMO which dovetails nicely in together at 144 ) What we have here is a clea

Posted Images

The zonal train rolls on it seems. ECM/UKMO/GFS below at +144h.  Despite some fairly large discrepancies at D7, the overall picture remains very much the same between the big 3; cold and wet NWs gradually changing to somewhat milder SWs as the Atlantic troughs stall over the UK.  Meanwhile, there is an attempt at Arctic heights and, by D7, a building of heights over Scandinavia.  

image.thumb.png.d1fd5c8b91cfc5e5f51ca7a7ee8f27f4.pngimage.thumb.png.624108e40348e3f730adf98a21e4c453.pngimage.thumb.png.a995ce1974b8c9b9dacaf962e1556c01.png

In order to really pull up those heights we need to see a link up between the fledgling heights to our NE and the arctic high, or see amplification upstream.  GFS and ECM are both saying no currently, by D10.  

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Now, deep into FI by this point (particularly so, seeing how there are rather substantial differences in the shortwave pattern even by D7), should the Scandy/Arctic high option fail as seems currently likely, our next point of interest should be the development of the Aleutian HP - the GFS says no and flattens it out beyond 240h, but I would suggest that this is the next opportunity to make inroads into the PV and promote, perhaps, renewed ridging in the Atlantic.  With the SPV strength predicted to at least drop back to somewhat average levels, then we may have a chance here as we move into the New Year.     

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47 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Evening all ?

Does make your mind think now about what the seasonal models predicted for December. We really need some kind of breakthrough in this pattern we are stuck in. We just have to swallow and ride through this, we have no other choice such is our island.  Let's see what pans out in the next week or so I suppose it's a patience game let's hope someone is looking out at us coldies and we see a change.

All the best 

regards ?

From a models perspective that is EXACTLY the point. The METO issued their thoughts days ago, so they are unlikely to have got it wrong so soon. the current models are really only confirming the expected alignment, but I'm unsure why so many search for the Holy Grail. The models can't be forced in to suiting a percentage of the UK populous, the ever hopeful. The world is changing, however, it would be nice to see the models just identify a pattern that could suggest a dry spell. For now I think we have to go with mild & wet/rain. So given the enclosed I think that's where we see our fortune

image.png.3eb296a8fae62ae3e01c7a9b2f2f7a35.png

As suggested to meet this

image.png.92beb0eb55f4bb0a7a00183ffc67d28c.png

Edited by Dorsetbred
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ECM at T144 more promising than UKMO at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.6314eac10211e886c27d86df136eceb7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.4ecde2a76e651b64a2bcddfe936579cd.jpg

I'm not holding my breath, not for the eventual weather which could be cold or not, but for better model output in next day or two.  There's that much uncertainty.

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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM at T144 more promising than UKMO at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.6314eac10211e886c27d86df136eceb7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.4ecde2a76e651b64a2bcddfe936579cd.jpg

I'm not holding my breath, not for the eventual weather which could be cold or not, but for better model output in next day or two.  There's that much uncertainty.

Good Post there is so much uncertainty beyond next week it's not worth evaluating. 

Polar region open to many outcomes. 

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10 minutes ago, carinthian said:

According to the latest GFS, another snowless Christmas beckons for the Great European Plain.  Sad to see really.

 C

GFSOPEU12_240_25.png

Very sad to see and can only be attributed to what seems a quasi stationary high pressure system Near Eastern Europe extending from Russia which seems to be growing bigger by the year relentlessly. It can only be another buy product of global warming I feel. Very sad ? 

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13 minutes ago, carinthian said:

According to the latest GFS, another snowless Christmas beckons for the Great European Plain.  Sad to see really.

 C

GFSOPEU12_240_25.png

Yes indeed, It's absurd. I looked at quite a few ensembles for European cities and they were all showing mild away from northern Scandi, I won't bother posting any, they're horrible.

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Yes indeed, It's absurd. I looked at quite a few ensembles for European cities and they were all showing mild away from northern Scandi, I won't bother posting any, they're horrible.

Quite like it me, at least not just our horrid area on the Atlantic, FI anyway that, could change for Europe

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14 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Very sad to see and can only be attributed to what seems a quasi stationary high pressure system Near Eastern Europe extending from Russia which seems to be growing bigger by the year relentlessly. It can only be another buy product of global warming I feel. Very sad ? 

Yes, been very mild in Central Eastern Europe throughout November and December so far. Lots of positive temp anomaly temps at surface and 850mb level. Maybe ECM smells a change tonight in time for Christmas !

C

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3 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Nothing in ECM charts 06z look that mild,mostly heading in a colder direction over festive season.

Surprises on the horizon for Christmas period cold lovers could we’ll become reasonably happy.

There’s nothing to suggest anything other than a bog standard mild and green UK Xmas. The very lowest ensemble members are at around -2c, and the mean is a good 3c above average at +2/3c. Just like most recent Xmas days, double digit maxima and mild. Sad to see.

Edited by mb018538
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2 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Nothing in ECM charts 06z look that mild,mostly heading in a colder direction over festive season.

Surprises on the horizon for Christmas period cold lovers could we’ll become reasonably happy.

Do you mean the 12z? 

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3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

There’s nothing to suggest anything other than a bog standard mild and green UK Xmas. The very lowest ensemble members are at around -2c, and the mean is a good 3c above average at +2/3c. Just like most recent Xmas days, double digit maxima and mild. Sad to see.

Hold ya horses there fella... The Ecm ens ain't even run yet!! We don't even get to see them from UKMO, and that leaves us with the mighty GFS and GEM... ?

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12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hold ya horses there fella... The Ecm ens ain't even run yet!! We don't even get to see them from UKMO, and that leaves us with the mighty GFS and GEM... ?

That’s true - but the ecm clusters from the 00z and day 10/11 for Xmas are a close match to the gfs ones. Add to that the 12z ecm op and I doubt they will be much different. Just saying it how it is, if people want to try and salvage something from an atom bomb wreckage that’s fine.

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Well while the ECM mean might not look that inspiring at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.45e1979dcad54ed46731562697011d5e.jpg

The spread tells a different story:

image.thumb.jpg.f12f2264a0db18bada69e141c4c9cdf9.jpg

Indicates a substantial number of members with the lows tracking a more southerly jet stream, including into Europe.  Uncertainty still the watchword, so on to tomorrow's runs...

Edited by Mike Poole
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17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well while the ECM mean might not look that inspiring at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.45e1979dcad54ed46731562697011d5e.jpg

The spread tells a different story:

image.thumb.jpg.f12f2264a0db18bada69e141c4c9cdf9.jpg

Indicates a substantial number of members with the lows tracking a more southerly jet stream, including into Europe.  Uncertainty still the watchword, so on to tomorrow's runs...

The only uncertainty will be around how cold the rain will be-

There is absolutely nothing to cheer about in the modelling at present, and unlikely to be for a while.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The only uncertainty will be around how cold the rain will be-

There is absolutely nothing to cheer about in the modelling at present, and unlikely to be for a while.

Wasn't cheering about anything CC, just describing what the models are showing, and above all, that is uncertainty, whether that floats your boat, in all that rain you mention, or not...

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28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Scraping the very bottom of the barrel-of-potential a tad there, aren't we karl??:oldlaugh:

Well you never know, might just be the start of some mega blockbusting upgrades resulting in countrywide blizzards by Christmas eve and a foot of snow on your doorstep in Suffolk by Christmas morning.:crazy:

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