Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM looking excellent this morning. A shame it is one of the lesser models.It is probably closer than GFS though. ?

gemnh-0-228.png?00

 

What we really need is ECM to follow up and keep the trend going.

 

 

the GEM is a real gem it has to be said. Ever the optimist lol 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know it's the true depths of FI on the GFS but I don't think I have ever seen charts like it towards the end when it starts to pull in upper air temps like it is showing from Africa.. Silly charts.. Will look totally different on the 06z but can you imagine that.. How many all time high temps would probably be broken in December.. 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM looking excellent this morning. A shame it is one of the lesser models.It is probably closer than GFS though. ?

gemnh-0-228.png?00

 

What we really need is ECM to follow up and keep the trend going.

 

 

What a great chart, that could end up becoming an epic set up going into Christmas Day. If the ECM follows that, this place will be busier this morning!! ?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure im getting the enthusiasm some are seeing with the GEM? Yes synoptically its nice to see some greens to our north but for the uk it doesnt mean muc. The uk is in possitive uppers. ECM is similar at 144 the atlantic low tilted favourably but troughs to the north of the uk form a wall preventing any cold uppers getting to the uk.

  

ECMOPEU00_168_1-2.png

ECMOPEU00_168_2.png

Edited by KTtom
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Not sure im getting the enthusiasm some are seeing with the GEM? Yes synoptically its nice to see some greens to our north but for the uk it doesnt mean muc. The uk is in possitive uppers. ECM is similar at 144 the atlantic low tilted favourably but troughs to the north of the uk form a wall preventing any cold uppers getting to the uk.

  

ECMOPEU00_168_1-2.png

This is my take, that HP looks pretty potent and likely to strengthen due to a lack of encroaching PV - LPs look like l’y to slide underneath. 

56BC74DC-B07C-43CC-8813-42A0A5CB154F.jpeg

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is my take, that HP looks pretty potent and likely to strengthen due to a lack of encroaching PV - LPs look like l’y to slide underneath. 

56BC74DC-B07C-43CC-8813-42A0A5CB154F.jpeg

Yes that's I was thinking. But in reality we need the jet to buckle or head on a southerly track. Each time we get a slider it holds hope that some heights can build in the right areas. 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I've seen these little features zip through before. Historically they have produced 2-4 inches of snow. So somewhere may get lucky...high ground favoured.

like this one, big difference though, we're warmer 21 years on, 0.2 degrees warmer can make all the difference between 6cms and nothing especially at low levels

archives-1998-1-5-12-0.png

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC day 10

image.thumb.png.38ccc0abdfcde39d58e3a32b22c4e3f6.png

GFS day 10

image.thumb.png.4b3ab523d29160d1a4f7d579bfd7d663.png

Slight divergence in the run up to christmas then!

Ha ha. More runs needed I think!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM much better than the GFS without being anything too exceptional....it's so different though that it's really unhelpful. GFS would lead to nothing. Ensembles not holding many clues either.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the Gfs 0z operational there's certainly some snow potential during the coming days / nights..even Christmas day shows snow!?

00_12_preciptype.thumb.png.e387af0f5a9a85b9f2d0017675cb8222.png00_54_preciptype.thumb.png.bf5bbd2e847825d4c781641645d07e59.png00_60_preciptype.thumb.png.70d283ea7b4825828e846b250379de18.png00_72_preciptype.thumb.png.5d30dfc1f4474ba83b32b1deb3a481b2.png00_90_preciptype.thumb.png.d2f062a3819b3b2acbe99d02af68e18b.png00_105_preciptype.thumb.png.5c39c3cd6d3360246eb3c7188032fb42.png00_324_preciptype.thumb.png.94c7ef9412ef3a019b3cd42675cfca41.png

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning .having looked threw the thread can't see any mention of the ukmo ?any thoughts

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Morning .having looked threw the thread can't see any mention of the ukmo ?any thoughts

Very similar the the ECM, maybe the trough in the Atlantic is a little more vertical which may help with a more southerly Jet Stream under the building NH heights. The problem is FI is pretty early, so models not agreeing - GFS specifically. 

93845C6E-890A-4188-BDCF-F758274D4CA0.gif

AAE28061-58FD-4F00-B44D-7108AD6B7C11.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Defo better looking heights around Greenland and NH in general on this run, a step in the right direction!! 

C4D8F6BC-D40C-4506-8BFE-47DABD434D88.png

4AEFB5C2-FA20-4BE8-B589-8BABFE4E60DE.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Surrey said:

I know it's the true depths of FI on the GFS but I don't think I have ever seen charts like it towards the end when it starts to pull in upper air temps like it is showing from Africa.. Silly charts.. Will look totally different on the 06z but can you imagine that.. How many all time high temps would probably be broken in December.. 

I know it's a period best forgotten but you don't remember mid December 2015 anymore? 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Archives NCEP de 1851 à maintenant

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 6z looks at best average .slight and minimal heights to the north.further more and sadly more rain possible !??

Edited by swfc
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • A nip in the air once the rain clears with strong winds in the next few days

    A cold front is bringing rain over England and Wales this morning with a coolness behind it. The risk of frost appears with gales for the SW on Thursday and a chilly north wind for all by Friday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Hurricane Teddy and eastern Canada

    Hurricane Teddy is forecast to transition before it makes landfall over Nova Scotia midweek then impacting Newfoundland but there is already wet and windy weather reaching eastern Canada Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...